Key Performance Measurement (KPM) forecasting is essential for proactive network management of 5G and next-generation telecom networks. However, existing machine learning (ML) approaches face significant limitations in scalability and explainability, restricting their effectiveness in real-world deployments. We propose TelcoAgent, a foundation model-based framework that enables accurate, scalable, and explainable forecasting of multiple KPMs across diverse network cells without the need for site-specific training. Specifically, the framework comprises three key components: (i) an automated three-agent pipeline that constructs a 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) knowledge graph directly from specification documents, (ii) a scalable, time-series foundation model (TSFM)-based prediction pipeline to deliver accurate, zero-shot forecasting, and finally (iii) a reasoning and explanation pipeline that provides actionable, domain-grounded diagnostics. Evaluated using a 3-month, real-world, city-scale 5G KPM dataset from a U.S.-based network operator, TelcoAgent demonstrates high forecasting accuracy for all 7 considered KPMs per cell across 200 cells, while delivering explainable insights and actionable instructions to address network degradations.

6 pages, 6 figures. Accepted to IEEE GLOBECOM 2026

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) increasingly offer covariate support, with calendar information being the most common type of categorical covariate in practice, as it is available for every point in time. However, how these features are encoded is largely treated as an implementation detail rather than as an object of study, despite encoding being one of the few design choices left for pretrained models at inference time. With the present study, we demonstrate that the way information is propagated into the model substantially affects forecast accuracy of TSFMs. Therefore, we systematically compare seven calendar encodings, including three conventional target-agnostic representations (ordinal, one-hot, and cyclic) and four target encodings, across four state-of-the-art TSFMs on nine datasets from multiple domains in a zero-shot rolling evaluation. The nine datasets are influenced by social activities, such as weekends and holidays, making calendar information particularly relevant for forecasting. We find that encoding choice affects forecast accuracy across all models, with MASE differences of up to 9.9 % on non-holidays and 83 % on holidays within a single model. Effectiveness and utilization vary substantially across models. Improvements are concentrated around holidays, where calendar information provides signals unavailable from target history, while some model encoding combinations also improve non-holiday forecasts. A SHAP-based attribution analysis locates the contribution of the covariates relative to the autoregressive component and explains why some model-encoding combinations degrade performance. Our findings suggest that current benchmarks for covariate-informed TSFMs can distort model comparisons by imposing fixed encoding strategies.

Circular data recorded over time, such as wind direction, are increasingly observed in intervals rather than as single point-valued observations, yet no existing framework accommodates data that are simultaneously circular, interval-valued, and temporally dependent. Time series models for point-valued circular data, including recently proposed score-driven approaches, assume that each observation is a single angle. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a dynamic conditional score framework for interval-valued circular time series. The lower and upper boundary sequences of the observed intervals are treated as circular time series governed by score-driven dynamics, which preserves the periodicity of the circular domain and the dependency of boundaries, in which the boundaries are coupled through a toroidal distribution and a jointly derived score. Maximum likelihood estimation is discussed, and their finite-sample performance is evaluated through simulation. An application to interval-valued wind direction data illustrates the practical value of retaining the interval structure within a fully rotationally invariant circular framework.

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) offers a low-cost, wide-area solution for near continuous infrastructure monitoring. However, translating InSAR observations into automated anomaly warnings remains challenging because displacements are relative, affected by uncertainty, and acquired along line of sight (LOS). We introduced a probabilistic warning framework that accounts for these factors. LOS displacements were modelled through a Gaussian distribution. A limit state function was defined to describe the displacement exceedance, and the time-dependent probability of exceedance was evaluated. Instead of a fixed threshold, warnings were identified through abrupt increases in exceedance probability. The framework was validated using three case studies of quay walls in Amsterdam, providing timely anomaly warnings and issued no warnings for the non-collapse case. Results demonstrate the potential of a probabilistic interpretation of InSAR time series for deformation anomaly warning.

Photoplethysmography (PPG) is increasingly recorded by wearable and clinical devices at enormous scale, and a growing number of PPG foundation models (FMs) have been developed to compute reusable representations for various downstream tasks. These models are difficult to compare: different evaluations use different datasets, task definitions, preprocessing, downstream heads, hyperparameter tuning, and baselines. We present PPG-Bench, a unifying open-source benchmark evaluating five public PPG FMs across nine open-access datasets and 26 tasks spanning cardiovascular state estimation, activity, sleep, screening, and identification. We evaluate models under four downstream regimes of increasing adaptability (linear probing, random forests, frozen MLP probes, and end-to-end finetuning), with model-specific hyperparameter optimization and subject-disjoint cross-validation. We also evaluate against three controls: random/constant baseline, a deterministic pulse-rate-variability (PRV) feature set, and a generic time-series FM (MOMENT). Across all 68 task-regime combinations, 35.3% show no meaningful FM advantage over the random/constant baseline, and in 83.8% no PPG-specific FM outperforms both PRV and MOMENT. We also find that added downstream head capacity generally improves performance, but can cause significant degradation if the model is performing at chance/constant level. Current PPG FMs therefore cannot yet claim to provide generalised and transferrable representations of PPG signals, and future evaluation in this field should include checks against simple, non-learned controls. Code for the benchmark and instructions to evaluate more models can be found here - https://github.com/mannas-ai/ppg-bench.

Time series causal discovery --- the process of detecting causation between time series --- has its roots in signal processing research from over a half century ago. It has since received active and widespread interest, evolving into different forms across domains such as statistics, dynamical systems and machine learning. Entering this fragmented and constantly evolving research landscape can be daunting. This tutorial provides a unified overview of time series causal discovery across research communities. We introduce the key principles invoked by modern discovery methods, and we discuss their limitations and assumptions. We also discuss how discovery methods are evaluated, benchmarked and fine-tuned. We further discuss how causal discovery for time series is becoming crucial for downstream tasks in agriculture and Earth science, in healthcare, and in artificial intelligence systems. We believe that this tutorial will serve as a valuable resource in navigating the deluge of recent causality research, as well as an invitation to signal processing audiences to contribute to causal problems. To further help readers, we host a companion repository to link to useful code packages and resources at https://github.com/CHAI-UK/Awesome-Time-Series-Causal-Discovery.

16 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in the IEEE Signal Processing Magazine

Secure transmission of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals remains a major challenge in telecardiology. While traditional mathematical watermarking can embed patient metadata directly into ECG signals, it is highly fragile against temporal desynchronization such as circular phase shifts. In contrast, existing deep watermarking approaches for temporal signals, such as audio, typically rely on lossy quantization, which compromises the high-frequency micro-morphological details critical for clinical diagnosis. To bridge this gap, we propose ECGWmark, a fully convolutional and quantization-free deep watermarking framework for medical time-series. ECGWmark operates in a continuous, full-resolution latent space and utilizes a localized frame-level mechanism to improve the robustness to severe desynchronization. Crucially, we introduce a differentiable Physiological Loss guided by a clinical classifier to preserve diagnostic semantics. Experiments on the benchmark MIT-BIH database show that ECGWmark maintains channel-bit extraction accuracy above 90% under the evaluated circular temporal shifts. Furthermore, under a rigorous inter-patient diagnostic evaluation, Class-V sensitivity changes from 71.97% to 76.50%, whereas Macro-F1 changes from 35.25% to 34.71% and Class-S sensitivity from 8.89% to 1.39%; these results indicate mixed class-level effects.

7 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables

Time-series foundation models use the same network depth for every input, although forecasting windows differ in structure and difficulty. We test whether whole Transformer blocks can be removed at inference time in two pretrained models: Chronos-Bolt and TimesFM 2.5. Our bypasses avoid the original block computation and preserve the dense model exactly when all blocks are enabled. Masks are selected only on calibration windows and evaluated on 1,088 held-out windows from ETTh1, Traffic, Weather, and Exchange. At moderate sparsity, Chronos-Bolt with 7/11 candidate blocks and TimesFM with 16/20 blocks show little change in mean relative forecasting quality across datasets while reducing median A100 batch-1 latency by 11.2% and 13.4%. More aggressive TimesFM skipping accelerates inference further but substantially harms Traffic and Weather. Across both models, different equal-budget masks win on different windows, and a retrospective oracle significantly improves over the best static mask on every dataset. However, dataset-specific masks transfer inconsistently, and Chronos representations do not support reliable unseen-domain routing. These results establish cross-architecture structured redundancy and input-dependent opportunity, but not a deployable dynamic inference method.

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is a common choice for measuring the discrepancy between time series. It proceeds by finding an optimal warping between timestamps through dynamic programming, which can be slow and is not differentiable. Consequently, several variants have been proposed. Among them, Soft-DTW proposes a smooth formulation of DTW, amenable to gradient computation, while Continuous-DTW (CDTW) introduces a continuous formulation through parametrizable warping functions. Yet, computational costs remain high for both methods and impractical for large datasets in modern machine learning pipelines. This paper revisits CDTW in several ways. After establishing its differentiability under mild conditions, we introduce FastCDTW, which is an efficient approximate solver with two different computational strategies: an exact closed-form scheme for piecewise-linear warping functions, and an unbiased Monte Carlo estimator for smooth ones, such as implicit neural networks. Both strategies provide gradients with respect to the warping function and the input time series, and the resulting algorithm is GPU-friendly. We demonstrate its benefits through its integration into more complex learning problems, including time series averaging, classification and deep domain adaptation.

Consumer rotating devices, including washing machines, air conditioners, electric fans, robotic vacuum cleaners, and home fitness equipment, increasingly rely on vibration sensing for intelligent condition monitoring and predictive maintenance. Ensuring reliable operation in these resource-constrained appliances requires efficient, lightweight artificial intelligence (AI) solutions capable of processing non-stationary signals under real-world operational interference. This paper proposes a lightweight AI-assisted vibration sensing framework that employs continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) to convert one-dimensional (1-D) vibration time-series signals into two-dimensional (2-D) time-frequency representations. These representations are subsequently analyzed using lightweight deep learning architectures, specifically MobileNetV3-Small, ConvNeXt-Tiny, and the You Only Look Once version 11 classification model (YOLOv11-cls). Public bearing benchmark datasets, including Case Western Reserve University (CWRU), Paderborn University (PU), and Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS), are utilized as representative rotating components to investigate model generalization. The proposed framework is designed with eventual embedded deployment in consumer electronics in mind. Experimental results demonstrate that CWT combined with YOLOv11-cls achieves high diagnostic accuracy, while MobileNetV3-Small provides an attractive low-latency alternative for computationally constrained edge platforms. Conventional random splitting is also compared with dataset-specific structured isolation. The results highlight the importance of avoiding data leakage and quantify tradeoffs in classification accuracy, parameter count, floating-point operations (FLOPs), model footprint, preprocessing cost, and central processing unit (CPU) inference latency.

6 pages, 3 figures, and 4 tables. Submitted to the 2027 IEEE International Conference on Consumer Electronics (ICCE 2027)

Continuous-time latent state-space models are widely used for irregularly observed time series, typically representing uncertainty through a random initial state followed by smooth ordinary differential equation (ODE) dynamics, or Brownian perturbations accumulated by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). While these constructions are natural for smooth or diffusive systems, they do not directly encode a finite set of unobserved shocks whose timing, magnitude, and effect on memory are themselves uncertain. We instead introduce latent jump models (LJMs): the latent state follows closed-form deterministic dynamics between Poisson-driven event times and undergoes a learned instantaneous jump at each event, with state-dependent intensity and mark distributions. This defines a time-homogeneous Markov process whose jumps are intrinsic state transitions rather than numerical integration steps. For training, we derive a tractable event-augmented path-space evidence lower bound (ELBO) and introduce Scan-Parallel Variational Inference (SPVI): an observation-conditioned variational posterior samples the complete latent event configuration before the state recurrence is evaluated using triangular affine scans. This enables fast and scalable training for LJMs in logarithmic temporal depth. Across synthetic stochastic systems and real irregular time series, LJMs remain competitive with continuous-time latent baselines in forecast accuracy, often with fewer latent updates than numerical solver evaluations, while training one to two orders of magnitude faster than the sequential baselines.

We study static indexes for exact subsequence matching over all equal-length windows of a time series. Under deterministic SETH, for every fixed $β\ge1$ and $δ\in(0,1)$, we exclude $O(N^β)$ preprocessing together with $O(N^{1-δ})$ worst-case query time on domains containing the reduction's polylogarithmic query lengths. The bounded-error counterpart assumes randomized SETH. The results cover specified warping, bottleneck, edit, subsequence, local-alignment, and complexity-adjusted scores. Their reductions share a data-independent query interface but require different arguments for all-window soundness. We give complete representative proofs for the distinct mechanisms and state the changes needed by related scores. For soft-DTW, integer scaling yields an exact Boolean-predicate reduction in Word-RAM; a model with exact transcendental primitives requires a separate assumption. For independent window-wise Z-normalization, balanced coordinate gadgets and shifted-window moment bounds yield exact lower bounds for squared-cost DTW and discrete Fréchet distance. We give finite-word comparisons and a specified length-dependent rounding rule preserving these gaps. Raw and normalized discrete Fréchet constructions also exclude feasible-solution approximation within any fixed factor below two. Finally, we prove conditional signal-attenuation bounds for normalized anchor constructions and a fast index under the all-window common-mean promise.

Networks of modern industrial systems are increasingly monitored by distributed sensors, where each system comprises multiple subsystems that generate high-dimensional time-series. These subsystems are often interdependent, making it important to understand how temporal patterns observed at one subsystem relate to those observed across others. This problem is particularly challenging in decentralized settings where raw measurements cannot be shared, and client observations are heterogeneous. Moreover, in practice, each subsystem (client) operates a fixed, proprietary model that cannot be modified or retrained, limiting the applicability of existing approaches. Separately, nonlinear dynamics make cross-client temporal interdependencies difficult to characterize, as they are embedded implicitly within nonlinear state-transition functions. This paper presents a vertical federated learning framework for learning one-step-ahead cross-client temporal interdependencies under these constraints. Each client maps high-dimensional local observations to low-dimensional latent states using a nonlinear state-space model, while a Graph Attention Network (GAT)-based central server learns a state-transition model over the communicated states. Given a candidate graph skeleton, the server learns state-dependent attention coefficients that capture cross-client interactions. We analytically relate the GAT attention coefficients to the Jacobian of the learned state-transition model, yielding a first-order characterization of cross-client interdependencies. We further establish bounded closeness of the learned dynamics and Jacobians to a corresponding centralized oracle. Synthetic experiments validate the theoretical results on controlled systems with known graph skeletons. Experiments on real-world datasets with unknown graph skeletons demonstrate superior federated root cause analysis over baselines.

Manuscript under review

Non-autoregressive multi-step forecasting (NAF) enables time series foundation models to predict an entire future horizon in a single forward pass. Despite its strong sequence modeling capabilities, RWKV-7 exhibits long-horizon degradation in our NAF experiments. In this setup, future patches are represented as missing inputs, requiring the recurrent state to evolve across the prediction horizon without new observations. Our analysis of RWKV-7's generalized delta rule suggests a mechanism we term Placeholder Idling Decay (PID): repeated state transitions can attenuate historical information when placeholder-driven writes provide insufficient compensation. Layer-wise analysis reveals reduced state-injection norms in most layers, while transition-matrix norms remain similar between historical and prediction regions, consistent with PID. Motivated by this analysis, we propose HART, a Hybrid Attention-RWKV Time-series Foundation Model that alternates attention and RWKV blocks, combining direct access to historical tokens with recurrent temporal modeling. Controlled experiments on GIFT-Eval and TIME-Benchmark show that HART improves over pure RWKV at medium and long horizons while maintaining comparable short-horizon performance, and achieves better aggregate performance than a comparably sized pure Transformer. With 36M parameters, HART achieves long-horizon MASE comparable to Toto-2.0-1B on GIFT-Eval (0.752 vs. 0.754), using approximately 1/28 of its parameters.

Battery state of health (SoH) forecasting is important for battery management, but remains challenging due to nonlinear degradation and heterogeneity across batteries. Existing data-driven approaches primarily use temporal models to learn from numerical battery time series, and higher-level degradation characteristics are often not explicitly represented. These characteristics, however, can provide degradation guidance to support reliable forecasting and make the influence of degradation more interpretable. In this paper, we propose Sera, a semantic representation aggregation framework that complements temporal modelling with degradation semantics. Guided by battery domain expertise, Sera extracts degradation semantics from time series and constructs two complementary representations using rule-based knowledge and LLM-based interpretation. The representations are independently encoded and integrated with the representation learned by temporal models through gated aggregations. Experiments on the mainstream benchmark across multiple prediction horizons and different temporal models show that Sera consistently improves forecasting performance, achieving up to a 37.3% reduction in prediction error over the temporal baseline and enhanced generalizability. Counterfactual analysis examines how forecasts respond to changes in degradation semantics to assess interpretability. The results show that prediction responses are consistent with the meanings of key degradation descriptors across tested horizons. Together, these findings demonstrate that structured degradation semantics and effective aggregation can improve forecasting accuracy and support reliable and interpretable battery health forecasting for advanced battery management.

The shock response spectrum (SRS) characterizes the peak responses of single-degree-of-freedom systems to transient acceleration. Because the mapping from an acceleration time series (waveform) to its SRS is many-to-one, inverse synthesis seeks candidate waveforms consistent with a prescribed spectrum. We extend an earlier conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) framework with a recurrent decoder that predicts multiscale wavelet coefficients and reconstructs waveforms through an inverse discrete wavelet transform. Individual models exhibit limited variability under latent sampling, motivating an ensemble of independently trained models spanning different mother wavelets and decomposition levels. Each member produces a separate candidate waveform for the same target SRS. Evaluation on four held-out benchmark datasets shows lower mean and median spectral errors for the illustrated wavelet model than for the earlier direct time-domain CVAE and a sum-of-decayed-sinusoids (SDS) baseline. A conditioning study examines frequency-grid and encoding choices. Comparisons with published inverse-SRS methods demonstrate superior performance across four holdout benchmark datasets (two operational shock datasets, one earthquake dataset, and one synthetic shock dataset) and competitive performance on synthetic targets reported by Brake. Single-model inference requires approximately 0.1-0.6 ms per waveform during batched inference compared with 5-8 s for SDS, excluding offline training. This low inference cost enables rapid generation of distinct SRS-compatible candidate waveforms across the ensemble, although their physical suitability requires assessment beyond spectral agreement.

We propose NV-Tesseract-AD, a curriculum learning-enhanced conditional diffusion framework for multivariate time-series anomaly detection. Our central hypothesis is that reconstruction difficulty can be explicitly structured along two complementary axes, masking severity and diffusion noise level, and that training from easier to harder tasks along both axes simultaneously stabilizes optimization and improves residual discriminability. We integrate a Transformer-based diffusion backbone with a three-stage dual curriculum over masking ratios and diffusion timesteps, retaining anomalous samples throughout training and relying on structured corruption to drive self-supervised representation learning. We evaluate NV-Tesseract-AD under two regimes: in-distribution training on the TSB-UAD-M corpus and strict zero-shot transfer to ten EasyTSAD benchmark families without per-dataset tuning. The dual-axis curriculum produces masking-invariant reconstruction, confirmed by a near-zero loss gap between complementary masking strategies within the first training stage, and yields an approximately 3.7-fold improvement in F1 and a 56 percent reduction in MSE relative to a non-curriculum baseline. Zero-shot performance reaches F1 = 0.984 on NAB and F1 = 0.948 on NormA. Weaker results on heterogeneous families are traced to unsupervised threshold calibration rather than reconstruction quality, identifying calibration as the dominant remaining detection bottleneck. Accelerated inference via DPM-Solver++ reduces sampling cost by a factor of 3.5 to 5.7 at the dataset level but couples to thresholding behavior, establishing that the sampler and threshold must be validated jointly. Together, these findings demonstrate that aligning diffusion denoising difficulty with curriculum learning principles provides a principled and practical approach for robust anomaly detection in complex multivariate time series.

Forecasting rare, high-cost events in multivariate time-series systems is hard because their precursors are seldom observed, so a purely data-driven model has little to learn from. The engineers who run these systems, however, hold knowledge that precedes such events, information absent from the scarce labels. We call this a semantic prior and inject it into a self-supervised event forecaster through two switchable mechanisms, a covariate mechanism and an attention-bias mechanism, each the identity at its null, so one architecture serves every prior type with no per-dataset architecture search. A prior helps when it supplies information the observed window does not already contain: in a short context an informative prior beats no prior in-domain (pooled h-AUROC over the no-prior baseline: a periodicity clock +14%, p<0.001; a conservation residual +47% at a 0.25 label fraction), and a working prior transfers out-of-domain (+53%), substituting for feature transfer, while priors the window already recovers stay inert and the attention-bias mechanism shows no measurable gain. KITE is a switchable, attributable route to contextual conditioning, and a substrate for scaling toward cross-domain, pretrained time-series foundation world models that carry their governing structure explicitly.

We introduce FactoryBench, a benchmark for evaluating time-series models and LLMs on machine understanding over industrial robotic telemetry. Q&A pairs are organized along four causal levels (state, intervention, counterfactual, decision) instantiating Pearl's ladder of causation, and span five answer formats: four structured formats are scored deterministically and free-form answers are scored by an LLM-as-judge voting protocol. We propose a scalable Q&A generation framework built around structured question templates, present FactoryWave (a dense, multitask, multivariate sensor dataset collected from a UR3 cobot and a KUKA KR10 industrial arm), and construct FactoryBench as a large-scale benchmark of over 70k Q&A items grounded in roughly 15k normalized episodes from FactoryWave, AURSAD, and voraus-AD. Zero-shot evaluation of six frontier LLMs shows that no model exceeds 50% on structured levels or 18% on decision-making, revealing a wide gap between current models and operational machine understanding.

Oral at PUDM, NeurIPS 2026. Code: https://github.com/Forgis-Labs/FactoryBench

Industrial machines are actuated systems, yet most open time-series corpora record sensor outcomes alone; the few that do log commanded signals expose them in vendor-specific forms that differ from machine to machine, so commanded intent and measured response cannot be compared across embodiments. We introduce FactoryNet, a pretraining corpus for industrial time-series: 113M datapoints across 57k end-to-end task executions (15k real, 42k synthetic) on seven embodiments and four tasks, with 27 annotated anomaly types alongside healthy baselines and counterfactual pairs. Every signal in every source is mapped into a single control-theoretic schema, Setpoint, Effort, Feedback, Context (S-E-F-C), which expresses any actuated system in a common representational frame and makes commanded-versus-realized dynamics readable as explicit prediction residuals. Using the corpus, we find that a task-phase model trained on simulation, with no real phase labels, recovers roughly two thirds of the real-data ceiling on both robots, and that transfer holds within a robot family but rarely across manufacturers. Fault signatures behave differently: an uncalibrated simulator gives no detectable fault signal on either robot, and aligning the feature distributions does not repair it. What separation there is comes from Effort: motor current distinguishes faults where measured tool motion is close to chance, and calibrating the simulator to reproduce that one channel recovers a payload fault on the real robot. We read this as simulation capturing the stable structure of a task while fault behaviour stays diverse and fault-type specific. We release FactoryNet as a growing, multi-embodiment substrate for industrial foundation models.

Accepted at AI4Physics and FMSD, ICML 2026. Code: https://github.com/Forgis-Labs/FactoryNet

Traditional machine learning relies on explicit models and domain assumptions, often limiting flexibility and interpretability. We introduce a "model-free" framework of instance-based learning using surprisal (information theoretic uncertainty) to directly analyze and perform inferences from raw data, eliminating distribution modeling, reducing bias, and enabling efficient updates including direct edits and deletion of training data. By quantifying relevance through uncertainty, the approach enables generalizable inference across tasks including generative inference, causal discovery, anomaly detection, and time series forecasting. Our approach emphasizes traceability, interpretability, and data-driven decision making, offering a unified, human-understandable framework for machine learning, can be adapted to virtually all machine learning tasks, achieving competency across all and state-of-the-art performance on anomaly detection and some supervised tasks. The mathematical foundations create a "physics" of information, which enable these techniques to apply effectively to a wide variety of complex data types, including missing data. Our results suggest that this may be a viable foundation upon which to build scalable machine learning and artificial intelligence that can maintain human understandability of the underlying mechanics.

Day-ahead electricity forecasts can help building operators schedule heating, ventilation, and other services around anticipated demand. Choosing a forecasting model also requires balancing accuracy with its forecast-time inputs, local training, and computational requirements. We benchmark statistical, machine-learning, recurrent neural-network, and pretrained TimesFM models for a university building. We use chronological validation and evaluate all configurations on the same 57 test days, comparing accuracy across workdays, weekends, and holidays alongside local fitting and forecasting time. Weather covariates use retrospective observations. TimesFM 3.0 with covariates achieves the lowest overall errors, reducing mean absolute error by approximately 43% relative to weekly seasonal-naive forecasting. XGBoost remains competitive, although paired daily comparisons do not establish a clear mean-absolute-error advantage for TimesFM. TimesFM also performs strongly using only past electricity consumption. Adding covariates improves its holiday forecasts but slightly worsens workday and weekend forecasts, leaving overall mean absolute error almost unchanged. TimesFM requires no building-specific weight training, while XGBoost offers rapid local fitting and inference. The evaluated LSTM takes longer to fit without outperforming either approach. An exploratory historical evaluation reveals seasonal variation, while a separate weather-source comparison produces only small changes in the selected TimesFM configuration's accuracy. These results support pretrained TimesFM as a strong initial forecasting baseline for this building, with XGBoost as a competitive locally fitted alternative. Covariates are particularly useful when improved holiday forecasts justify the additional input preparation.

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have achieved strong forecasting performance across domains. However, most adaptation methods remain static. Existing all-in-one methods learn a single set of dataset-level parameter updates and apply the same adapted model to every input. As a result, they cannot adapt the model parameters to the temporal patterns, seasonality and dynamics of each input time series. This limits their ability to produce forecasts that are tailored to heterogeneous inputs. To address this limitation, we propose AdaCast, a conditional parameter generation framework for time-series forecasting. AdaCast uses a generator to produce input-specific low-rank parameter updates for a frozen pretrained TSFM. These updates adapt the model to each input during both training and inference. Across six public benchmarks, AdaCast consistently outperforms static adaptation baseline in in-domain forecasting and improves zero-shot generalization to held-out datasets across domains. These results demonstrate that conditional parameter generation provides an effective approach for adaptive forecasting.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods for time-series forecasting update a deployed model, or a small adapter around it, from incoming ground truth. But the label of an $H$-step forecast exists only $H$ steps later, and real data pipelines add further delay. We build a leakage-free harness in which the label of forecast origin $s$ is released for updates only at step $s+d$ with $d \ge H$, and enforce this rule inside the released code of four recent TTA methods (TAFAS, COSA, PETSA and DynaTTA), run on their own backbones and checkpoints across five benchmarks (ETTm1, ETTh2, Weather, Electricity and Traffic). As references we add two closed-form correctors: a bank of recursive least squares (RLS) filters combined by a per-coordinate median, with no tunable hyperparameters and 56 microseconds per step on the 7-channel streams, and an ELF-style linear corrector. Under causal delayed labels the picture is asymmetric. On ETTm1 every audited method genuinely adapts, yet the RLS bank still beats three of the four at a fraction of their cost; only DynaTTA beats the bank, only at the minimum causal delay, and at roughly 2,500 times the per-update cost; the ELF-style corrector beats all four. On the other four datasets, the largest statistically significant improvement any published method achieves over its own frozen checkpoint is half a percent, on all four at least one published method is significantly worse than the frozen model at the minimum causal delay, and on drift-heavy ETTh2 longer label delays make every adapter that separates from the frozen model, ours included, significantly harmful. Leaky next-step updates inflate the apparent gains of simple adapters by up to 110%, and the backbone training recipe moves frozen online error by up to a factor of 25, more than any adaptation effect we measure. We release the harness, integration patches and all cached runs.

34 pages, 9 figures. Code and cached results: https://github.com/Xodios/TRAINING-ON-THE-FUTURE-A-DELAY-AWARE-AUDIT-OF-TEST-TIME-ADAPTATION-FOR-TIME-SERIES-FORECASTING

Granger causality identifies predictive dependencies in multivariate time series. In distributed settings where parties cannot share data, federated causal learning enables joint analysis. Most federated causal methods assume that clients observe the same features and infer causal relationships as point estimates, with little formal uncertainty quantification. These assumptions do not hold in many industrial systems, where clients observe different features, and the objective is to estimate cross-client dependencies (edges). These dependencies must be estimated indirectly through repeated client-server iterations. Uncertainty from client data and model parameters propagates through this process, making point estimates alone insufficient for assessing cross-client edges. This paper characterizes this uncertainty propagation and uses edge-specific variances to distinguish genuine cross-client dependencies from spurious estimated edges. We consider aleatoric uncertainty from client data variability and epistemic uncertainty from model parameters. We derive closed-form variance recursions and steady-state variances for the client-server iterations. We prove that the propagated contribution of the initial model-parameter uncertainty vanishes asymptotically. These variances enable statistically principled selection of cross-client edges. Synthetic experiments show that our approach improves cross-client edge recovery over competing baselines. On real-world industrial datasets, it achieves high root-cause identification accuracy while yielding interpretable dependency structures.

Manuscript under review

Quantum machine learning, and quantum neural networks (QNNs) in particular, are advancing fields with growing potential. Although systematic comparisons of QNN configurations have been explored primarily for classification tasks, comparatively little attention has been given to regression problems, particularly financial time series forecasting. This study presents a large-scale systematic comparative evaluation of QNN component configurations for financial time series forecasting, using the GBP/USD spot exchange rate as a case study. A grid search across encoding methods, ansatz designs, qubit counts, layer depths, and cost functions yields 1,368 distinct model configurations, each evaluated in terms of prediction accuracy, computational cost, and convergence behaviour. The results reveal unique insights into how the choice of methods influences performance, such as that gate selection and arrangement are more critical to model success than raw parameter count, and that entanglement is a system-level property of the full circuit rather than solely at the ansatz level. The best-performing QNN configuration achieves an $R^2$ score of 0.985, outperforming a classical BiLSTM baseline. Additionally, the impact of real quantum hardware noise is assessed through execution on the IQM Emerald device, revealing that gate errors and decoherence represent a significant barrier to practical deployment, with gate selection and circuit depth identified as key determinants of hardware noise resilience. Overall, the findings provide practical architectural guidance for QNN design and establish a baseline characterisation of QNN noise sensitivity on near-term quantum devices.

Neural network-based predictive modeling with high-dimensional structured Gaussian targets requires an efficient and numerically stable, yet expressive approximation of the covariance matrix. We propose SCORE: a scalable framework, combining scoring rule training with an expressive covariance approximation learned in spectral space. For $d$-dimensional data, the learning task is decomposed into learning the marginal distributions and learning a structured correlation matrix, which enables dense dependencies with linear storage and $\mathcal{O}(d\log d)$ cost. We utilize the closed form Gaussian kernel score for training, which remains defined even for degenerate covariances and admits bounded gradients during optimization. We characterize kernel scores under invertible transforms and prove exact invariance under unitary transforms. At population level, our two-level objective recovers the true marginals and projects the target correlation onto the representable class; finite-sample PAC bounds show that the errors of the two stages enter additively. We evaluate our model on a variety of tasks with a commonly assumed Gaussian domain: Time-series forecasting, monocular depth estimation, and spatial weather prediction, showing improved performance at lower computational cost.

We propose a novel framework in high-dimensional factor models to simultaneously analyze multiple tensor time series, each with potentially different tensor orders and dimensionality. The connection between different tensor time series is through their global factors that are correlated to each other. A salient feature of our model is that when all tensor time series have the same order, it can be regarded as an extension of multilevel factor models from vectors to general tensors. Under an explicit full-rank condition on the cross-thread covariance and an orthogonality condition between the global and local loading spaces, we separate the global and local components. Parameter estimation is thoroughly discussed, including a consistent factor number estimator. With strong correlation between global factors and noise allowed, we derive the rates of convergence of our estimators, which can be superior to those of existing methods for multilevel factor models. We also develop estimators that are more computationally efficient, with rates of convergence spelt out. Extensive experiments are performed under various settings, corroborating with the pronounced theoretical results. As a real application example, we analyze a set of taxi data to study the traffic flow between Times Square and its neighboring areas.

Media-bridged time series forecasting is expanding to encompass traditional "multivariate" and emerging "multimodal" (e.g., through textual assistance). Existing Time Series Forecasting (TSF) models still rely on paradigm-specific relation, fusion, and temporal modules, hindering a common forecasting backbone across numerical and pre-aligned narrative-flow settings. To explore this, we propose the Multimedia Identity-Aware Prism Network (MIDAPN), a unified spatiotemporal forecasting backbone based on media-general graph adaptation and automatic temporal learning: (1) Following media pre-alignment, our Multimedia Identity-Aware Graph (MIDAG) revisits identity through static essence, dynamic behavior, and latent commonality, inducing affinities that extend variable-specific dependencies across media. Contextual Identity Modulation (CIM) further refines discriminative aggregation. (2) We develop Spectral Prism Convolution (SPConv) to automatically perform hierarchical temporal analysis, balancing coarse trends and fine-grained details. Meanwhile, its Adaptive Search Guidance configures a scale-efficient architecture for temporal-dimension reconstruction. These decoupled yet synergistic components jointly address media identity disentanglement and temporal-scale mismatch. Comprehensive evaluations involving 16 SOTA TSF models across 13 "multivariate" and 12 "multimodal" datasets, alongside targeted long-context comparisons against 14 time series foundation models and fused pretrained language models, demonstrate MIDAPN's consistent superiority and broad shared backbone compatibility. The code is available at \href{https://github.com/leijieruilq/MIDAPN/tree/main}{https://github.com/MIDAPN}.

We introduce Timer-M1, a pretrained multivariate time series foundation model that learns with primitives for zero-shot forecasting. Across domains, time series share elementary temporal and relational patterns, termed primitives, yet differ in how these primitives manifest and evolve across different contexts. Despite progress in zero-shot and task-general forecasting, existing foundation models may still struggle to generalize to complex real-world scenarios. To this end, we develop a primitive-based data synthesis and pretraining pipeline. The synthesis pipeline generates series with temporal primitives shared across domains and then assembles real and generated series into multivariate samples using relational primitives. Afterwards, samples are organized into episodes by assigning distinct channel roles as target variates, past-only covariates, and known-future covariates, ensuring that the model is optimized on predictable variates using available exogenous information. Technically, Timer-M1 further adapts gated two-dimensional Transformer blocks that dynamically allocate cross-variate attention across layers. Across three large-scale forecasting benchmarks, Timer-M1 ranks first on both FEV and TIME and second on GIFT-Eval among most recent time series foundation models. These results support effective primitive-based pretraining as a route to robust general forecasting technique across domains and task settings.

Long-term time-series forecasting supports a wide range of applications, including weather prediction and electricity demand planning. Frequency-domain methods address this task by decomposing observations into components that describe temporal variations at different scales. However, separate representations do not by themselves provide an explicit mechanism for adjusting the training emphasis across components. Under a shared forecasting objective, the frequency-specific networks can retain different levels of coefficient prediction error, motivating an error-dependent adjustment to their gradients. To this end, we propose BEAT (Balanced frEquency Adaptive Tuning), a framework that combines frequency-specific error monitoring with adaptive gradient modulation. We design a Frequency-Specific Monitor that compares predicted and target wavelet coefficients in a common normalized space and expresses each discrepancy relative to a reference error computed from the detail components. We further introduce a Dynamical Gradient Balancer that converts these ratios into positive, bounded coefficients. Components with higher relative errors receive larger gradient weights, whereas those with lower relative errors receive smaller weights. A shared modulation-strength parameter controls the departure from unmodulated training, and the monitoring and balancing operations are used only during training. Experiments on seven real-world datasets show that BEAT achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art forecasting methods.

Sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) is a data-driven framework for discovering governing dynamics from time-series data by identifying a sparse subset of candidate dynamical terms from a prespecified library. In this work, we develop a statistical inference framework for quantifying the reliability of dynamical terms selected by SINDy through hypothesis tests and confidence intervals. A key difficulty is that using the same noisy trajectory for both selecting dynamical terms and assessing their statistical significance can introduce selection bias. Post-selection inference provides a principled framework for addressing such bias, and we propose PSI-SINDy, a post-selection inference method tailored to SINDy. Direct application of existing post-selection inference techniques is challenging because SINDy involves measurement error in the candidate terms and shared noise between the response and design. To address these challenges, PSI-SINDy uses data thinning to decompose a single observed trajectory into four mutually independent views with distinct roles in selection and inference. This construction enables inference for selected dynamical terms while accounting not only for selection bias but also for measurement-error and shared noise effects. We establish the theoretical validity of PSI-SINDy under stated conditions and evaluate its performance through numerical experiments on simulated and experimental dynamical-system data.

47 pages, 3 figures, 16 tables

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW)-based Nearest-Neighbor (NN) classifiers are effective for time-series classification but are vulnerable to mislabeled training samples and require numerous DTW computations during inference. We propose DTW-based Granular Ball Computing (DTW-GBC), which organizes temporally similar training samples into granular balls and performs classification at the granule level. We further develop two granular-ball construction strategies for DTW-GBC. Experiments on four benchmark datasets with symmetric label noise show that the two DTW-GBC variants generally mitigate the performance degradation caused by label noise while requiring substantially fewer comparisons than DTW-based 1-NN during inference. These findings suggest that DTW-GBC provides a favorable balance between classification robustness and inference efficiency.

Time series data are essential for a wide range of applications, yet access to high-quality datasets is often constrained by privacy concerns, acquisition costs, and labelling challenges. Synthetic time series generation has emerged as a promising approach to address these limitations. In this work, we investigate the use of complex network mappings for synthetic time series generation, focusing on the Quantile Graph (QG) representation and its inverse. While the inverse QG mapping has been previously proposed, its potential as a general-purpose data generator has not been systematically evaluated. We address this gap through a comprehensive empirical study assessing both the fidelity and utility of synthetic time series generated by the Inverse Quantile Graph (InvQG) framework. The evaluation combines statistical feature analysis, network-based topological characteristics, and performance in downstream clustering and classification tasks, using simulated and real-world datasets. The results show that InvQG effectively preserves marginal distributions and short-term temporal dependencies across a wide range of models, while exhibiting predictable limitations in capturing long-range or higher-order dynamics.

In this paper, we develop a fractional stochastic neural network with residual dynamics driven by fractional Brownian motion. By introducing a discrete stochastic maximum principle for the network, we construct the corresponding adjoint recursion. For deterministic network parameters, we prove mean square convergence of projected samplewise stochastic gradient descent. Numerical experiments include a closed form convergence test, noisy regression with uncertainty quantification, long memory time series generation and image classification under structured perturbations. The results identify settings in which fractional drivers improve long memory recovery or robustness relative to Brownian and deterministic baselines.

29 pages, 3 figures, 6 tables

Time series forecasting underpins critical decision-making across diverse domains. While large language models (LLMs) offer promising reasoning capabilities, existing LLM-based time series forecasting approaches either reduce them to numerical predictors that bypass their strengths, or allow direct forecast generation that destabilizes predictions in non-stationary settings. We introduce CTRL, a framework that decouples semantic reasoning from quantitative prediction. A frozen backbone generates base forecasts, while specialized LLM agents function as controllers that analyze backbone prediction errors through decomposed trend, seasonal, and irregular components, grounding reasoning in interpretable temporal structure. Each agent outputs compact control signals that a lightweight residual decoder translates into forecast corrections. CTRL incorporates label-free test-time adaptation that detects distribution shift from input statistics alone and readapts control signals with only 3-24 LLM calls via caching. CTRL is explicitly designed to improve robustness under non-stationary temporal dynamics and distribution shift, while remaining competitive on highly stationary time series where adaptive correction provides limited additional benefit.

Published in Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026. 18 pages, 9 figures, 22 tables

Time-series diagnostic systems rarely rely on retrieving relevant historical cases, and when they do, retrieval is evaluated only indirectly through downstream prediction. We introduce READ-Bench, a benchmark for historical-case retrieval across 12 diagnostic datasets, centered on multivariate time series, that defines relevance by shared fault or event type rather than signal shape, so visually different traces of the same fault count as relevant while similar-looking traces of different faults do not. Treating retrieval as a base retriever followed by a reranker, we evaluate classical distances, symbolic retrievers, self-supervised and foundation-model embedders, and their fusion, plus label-aware and language-model rerankers, under one protocol that varies supervision, pollution, and corpus scale with significance testing. Under a common channel-independent interface, pretrained representations offer no statistically detectable advantage over strong classical and symbolic baselines for search alone. The decisive factor is a small amount of resolved-case supervision at reranking, namely a Gaussian-process reranker that propagates a few neighbor labels in embedding space, which helps far more than more sophisticated representations or language-model reasoning and holds under pollution and at full corpus scale. Guided by these findings, we fuse a normal-residual-scored embedder with a dynamic time warping leg via reciprocal-rank fusion, then rerank with the Gaussian-process reranker, improving NDCG@10 over its own search stage on all 12 datasets, by +0.11 from reranking and +0.16 over the strongest single base retriever.

Time series forecasting aims to predict future values from historical observations and auxiliary features. We propose \textbf{SteerCast}, a retrieval-based latent steering method that improves decoder-only forecaster at inference time, without updating its parameters. SteerCast constructs a database from the training set by storing a representation of each history window together with a \emph{steering vector} computed in the forecaster's latent space, defined as the difference between representations induced by the ground-truth continuation and by the model's own prediction. At test time, SteerCast retrieves nearest neighbors for a query history, aggregates their steering vectors, and injects the resulting signal into the forecaster's hidden states at every step of autoregressive generation, guiding predictions toward trajectories consistent with similar training cases. Experiments across diverse multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons show that SteerCast consistently improves forecasting accuracy over the fine-tuned backbone and retrieval-based baselines, while requiring no additional training beyond the original fine-tuning and using only the training set as a retrieval corpus.

Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks, which leverage the current data sequence as input to predict the future sequence, have become increasingly crucial in real-world applications such as weather forecasting and planning of electricity consumption. However, state-of-the-art LTSF models often fail to achieve prediction output alignment for the same timestamps across lagged input sequences. Instead, these models exhibit low output alignment, resulting in fluctuation in prediction outputs for the same timestamps, undermining the model's reliability. To address this, we propose AliO (Align Outputs), a novel approach designed to improve the output alignment of LTSF models by reducing the discrepancies between prediction outputs for the same timestamps in both the time and frequency domains. To measure output alignment, we introduce a new metric, TAM (Time Alignment Metric), which quantifies the alignment between prediction outputs, whereas existing metrics such as MSE only capture the distance between prediction outputs and ground truths. Experimental results show that AliO effectively improves the output alignment, i.e., up to 58.2% in TAM, while maintaining or enhancing the forecasting performance (up to 27.5%). This improved output alignment increases the reliability of the LTSF models, making them more applicable in real-world scenarios.

NeurIPS 2025. 46 pages

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) models predominantly employ patch-based encoders terminated by a flatten readout head that maps the entire encoded historical memory to all future steps through a single shared projection. This implicit coupling of future positions obscures position-specific historical-to-future alignment and amplifies sensitivity to corrupted inputs and extreme supervision noise. We present SACQ, a plug-in structured prediction head that replaces flatten readout while keeping the encoder unchanged. SACQ adopts a two-stage decoding pipeline: it first establishes a coarse patch-grid forecast scaffold, then refines each future position through cross-attention over historical memory and merges the attention-derived correction with the coarse scaffold via a learned per-patch gate. To stabilize optimization under long horizons and noisy labels, we further propose a batch-adaptive scaled log-cosh loss that automatically calibrates robustness to the current residual scale, suppressing outlier gradients while preserving MSE-like sensitivity for typical errors. SACQ attains top-tier test MSE/MAE across PatchTST, DLinear, and patch-Mamba backbones with only modest incremental overhead in parameters and latency. Under inference-time input corruption and training-set label-noise stress tests, SACQ substantially outperforms flatten readouts, with ablation studies validating each architectural component.

Multivariate long-horizon forecasting is critical to electricity load scheduling and traffic flow management, and to financial risk control. Existing deterministic backbones output a single trajectory, masking heterogeneous prediction difficulty across horizons and channels and providing no localized reliability signal. We present CARE (Corrective branch with Aligned context and Relative-error Estimation), a lightweight plug-in that enhances any deterministic forecaster without architectural redesign. Operating in parallel with the base model, CARE resamples historical context to match the forecast horizon, learns residual correction patterns from this aligned history, and applies scale-aware bounded updates modulated by per-coordinate sigmoid risk gates. A multi-objective loss jointly optimizes forecast accuracy, residual tracking, risk alignment, and base-model anchoring. Across eight benchmarks with three representative backbones, CARE improves accuracy with marginal parameter and latency overhead. Its risk gates reliably identify high-error regions: on Weather, the highest-gate tertile exhibits nearly four times the error of the lowest-gate tertile, offering planners an interpretable per-step trust signal. Code is available at https://github.com/CG-BNYC/CARE.

We release Ride-Hailing, a large-scale ride-hailing time series dataset synthesized from DiDi's marketplace data across 200 spatial areas. Ride-Hailing spans four consecutive years at half-hourly granularity and covers three representative exogenous scenarios: Weather Disturbance, Holiday Effect, and Large-scale Event Impact. Built upon Ride-Hailing, we introduce RideBench, a comprehensive benchmark for exogenous-aware ride-hailing forecasting, covering both regular week-ahead forecasting and long-horizon 8-week-ahead forecasting with up to 2,688 prediction steps. RideBench evaluates over 30 representative forecasting methods, including endogenous-only models, exogenous-aware models, and time series foundation models. Our results show that future-known exogenous variables provide clear benefits in regular week-ahead forecasting, especially under weather, holiday, and large-scale event (e.g., major sporting events and concerts) scenarios. However, current exogenous-aware models still struggle to fully capture disturbance-induced pattern changes under complex external contexts. For long-horizon forecasting, existing models cannot simultaneously achieve low pointwise errors, accurate broad trends, and reliable near-term forecasts. These findings reveal a clear mismatch between existing forecasting models and real-world ride-hailing requirements, highlighting the need for models that can better exploit future-known exogenous information, scale across heterogeneous areas, and support long-horizon planning. By introducing Ride-Hailing and RideBench, we aim to encourage the community to study these practical challenges in real-world ride-hailing forecasting.

Retrieval augmentation provides time series forecasters with historical continuations, yet even candidates that outperform the base forecast may fail to improve the final prediction. We propose ROAR, a Retrieval Opportunity-Aware Refinement framework for zero-shot time series forecasting. To better exploit these improvement opportunities, its training objective allocates additional emphasis across queries based on base-forecast difficulty and the relative improvement offered by retrieved candidates. Using this objective, ROAR first learns to aggregate aligned historical candidates and uses a learned gate to control their correction strength against a fixed base forecaster. It then jointly calibrates the forecasting module and gate to coordinate their contributions, while anchoring the combined prediction to the first-stage refined output. We derive exact decompositions of refinement gains and the opportunity-weighted training loss, and characterize additional gains from joint calibration under a local linearization. Experiments on seven benchmarks show that ROAR achieves the lowest average MSE among the compared methods. Further evaluations demonstrate average forecasting improvements across multiple backbone families and retrieval-augmented forecasters.

Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) offer a promising path toward time series understanding by reasoning over temporal signals and producing natural language answers and explanations. A common approach is Chain-of-Thought (CoT), which generates step-by-step rationales linking relevant signal patterns to final answers. Although these models learn from reference CoT traces during post-training, generating faithful descriptions of input time series at inference remains challenging. Expressing high-dimensional, continuous temporal representations in discrete language tokens may cause the model to neglect task-relevant patterns or describe them inaccurately. Because later reasoning steps build on these descriptions, early errors propagate, leading to incorrect answers with plausible explanations that are inconsistent with the input signal. We propose Lapras (Latent Post-trained Reasoning Across Series), a post-training framework that equips TSLMs with latent reasoning. A model trained with Lapras reasons through a sequence of continuous thoughts in the joint time series-language space, producing text only for the final answer. It learns this through teacher-student self-distillation, where a teacher trained on CoT reference traces reasons explicitly through text. The student aligns its hidden states with the teacher's at the answer stage, transferring the teacher's reasoning ability into its latent computation. We evaluate Lapras across four TSLM backbones on five time series question answering benchmarks. Lapras improves average F1 by up to 10.79% over explicit CoT while generating 23.9x fewer tokens. Lapras's continuous thoughts can also be decoded into readable reasoning traces via standard language decoding, preserving textual explanations. Together, these results highlight Lapras as a promising post-training paradigm for efficient, effective, and interpretable TSLM reasoning.

The presence of concept drift poses challenges for anomaly detection in time series. While anomalies are caused by undesirable changes in the data, differentiating abnormal changes from varying normal behaviours is difficult due to differing frequencies of occurrence, varying time intervals when normal patterns occur, and identifying similarity thresholds to separate the boundary between normal vs. abnormal sequences. Differentiating between concept drift and anomalies is critical for accurate analysis as studies have shown that the compounding effects of error propagation in downstream tasks lead to lower detection accuracy and increased overhead due to unnecessary model updates. Unfortunately, existing work has largely explored anomaly detection and concept drift detection in isolation. We introduce AnDri, a framework for Anomaly detection in the presence of Drift. AnDri introduces the notion of a dynamic normal model where normal patterns are activated, deactivated or newly added, providing flexibility to adapt to concept drift and anomalies over time. We introduce a new clustering method, Adjacent Hierarchical Clustering (AHC), for learning normal patterns that respect their temporal locality; critical for detecting short-lived, but recurring patterns that are overlooked by existing methods. Our evaluation shows AnDri outperforms existing baselines using real datasets with varying types, proportions, and distributions of concept drift and anomalies.

Extended version (to be updated)

We study inference on the drift of a critical Galton--Watson process with immigration, a count time series with a unit root. Climate change motivates such nonstationary models for weather-related disaster counts. The drift is the expected increase in the count per period. Ordinary least squares is inconsistent for the drift, so we study state-weighted least squares, giving greater weight to observations following small counts, where conditional variance is lower. Under strict recurrence, we apply null-recurrent regenerative limit theory to obtain a polynomial convergence rate and a standard normal studentized limit. Our main contribution is the recurrence boundary, where we establish a logarithmic convergence rate and a parameter-free non-Gaussian studentized limit. Estimating the optimal weights yields the same first-order limiting distribution as knowing them. Simulations show lower root mean squared error than time-weighted least squares with weights $1/t$, and improved state-weighted confidence-interval coverage when the unit root is imposed.

Forecasting resale prices of used electronics is critical for subscription-based platforms where pricing errors translate directly into risk. Unlike structured financial markets, second-hand electronics exhibit high volatility, sparse listing histories, and non-normal price dynamics - yet no systematic time-series benchmark exists for this domain. This paper presents the first multi-horizon benchmark of statistical and deep learning forecasting models for used electronics price prediction. We use a large-scale dataset of daily price listings from Polish online marketplaces (January 2022 to March 2025, 100+ smartphone and laptop models) and evaluate eleven models across six horizons from 1 to 365 days, covering classical methods (ARIMA, ETS, Theta), recurrent and convolutional networks (LSTM, TCN), and modern deep architectures (N-BEATS, N-HiTS, TFT, PatchTST, Informer). Three complementary evaluation protocols assess trajectory fitness, one-shot endpoint accuracy, and cross-horizon transfer. N-BEATS achieves the lowest MAPE beyond 30 days, reaching 8.51% at 365 days versus 14.94% for the best statistical baseline - a 43% reduction. At short horizons (1-7 days), all models converge near 0.72% MAPE and the naive baseline remains competitive. A single N-BEATS model trained at 365 days generalizes to all shorter horizons, eliminating the need for horizon-specific models. N-BEATS and N-HiTS also demonstrate superior hyperparameter stability.

41 pages, 7 figures, 13 tables

Accurately simulating chaotic quantum many-body dynamics remains a major computational challenge for classical methods, due to the rapid buildup and spatial spreading of entanglement during the evolution. This raises the question of whether machine learning can provide an effective alternative for predicting quantum dynamics. We address this question by formulating quantum dynamics as a time-series forecasting problem, using a few-qubit PXP chain, realizable with Rydberg-atom arrays, as a benchmark. By varying the initial state, the system spans dynamical regimes ranging from ergodic behavior to quantum many-body scarring, providing a controlled setting for testing forecasting models across qualitatively different dynamics. We compare two contrasting architectures: an expressive nonlinear Transformer and DLinear, a simple linear forecasting model. The Transformer accurately predicts dynamics in the more ergodic regime, but its performance progressively deteriorates as the initial state approaches the scarred limit. In contrast, DLinear remains accurate across the entire family of initial states, with its main deviations consisting of small high-frequency oscillations that have little effect on the overall prediction error. Remarkably, these results show that observables generated by complex quantum many-body dynamics can be forecast with high accuracy through a simple linear mapping from past to future observations. This reveals that the complexity of the underlying quantum evolution need not translate into an equally complex forecasting problem.

Francesco Perciavalle and Agostino Gallo contributed equally to this work. 11 pages, 5 figures

Real-world time-series applications increasingly require models that can handle time series forecasting, context-conditioned prediction, and language-based temporal reasoning. Yet current time-series foundation models remain fragmented across these capabilities: numerical specialists often provide the strongest forecasts, while language-based models offer broader contextual understanding and analysis. A central challenge is to unify these heterogeneous capabilities without reducing their individual performance. We introduce OpenTSLM TeeMoE, a generalist time-series language model that can forecast directly from observed time series, reason over textual context and temporal patterns, and synthesize and refine predictions from external numerical forecasting specialists. We independently train three low-rank experts for forecast aggregation, native forecasting, and temporal analysis over a shared backbone. A learned LoRA mixture-of-experts controller then weights their frozen parameter updates for each request. Our proposed model achieves strong performance on widely used benchmarks for time series forecasting, context-conditioned prediction, and language-based temporal reasoning, ranking among the top three on GIFT-Eval by mean MASE rank, Context is Key by RCRPS, and TimeSeriesExam by accuracy.

39 pages, 2 figures. Code: https://github.com/OpenTSLM/OpenTSLM-TeeMoE ; model: https://huggingface.co/OpenTSLM/TeeMoE

Live-streaming platforms generate high-frequency records of collective human activity in which many loosely coordinated users react in real time to shared external stimuli and to one another. We investigate whether the temporal organization of Twitch chat messages exhibits multifractal signatures characteristic of complex dynamical systems. Selected high-activity chats were converted into time series by measuring the length of each consecutive message in words, with platform emotes treated as individual tokens. The resulting signals display heterogeneous fluctuations, bursty organization, and heavy-tailed distributions that, in several cases, are better captured by q-Weibull forms than by conventional light-tailed models. Autocorrelation analysis reveals persistent temporal dependence over broad ranges of message lags, indicating that the variability is not produced by independent message generation alone. MFDFA shows that some chats possess well-developed multifractal spectra and generalized Hurst exponents strongly dependent on moment order, whereas others exhibit weak scaling, approximately monofractal behavior, or no well-defined scaling regime. Surrogate tests indicate that temporal correlations are essential for the observed multifractality, while heavy tails enhance its apparent strength. Under particular dynamical conditions, Twitch chat may therefore form an emergent collective signal whose fragmented, reactive, associative, and multiscale organization is structurally reminiscent of stream-of-consciousness narrative. This expression is used strictly as a structural and dynamical analogy, not as a claim of a unified collective mind or of semantic, cognitive, or phenomenological equivalence with literary stream-of-consciousness writing. The results position live-stream chat dynamics within the broader physics of complex, intermittent, human-generated signals.

accepted for publication in CHAOS: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science

This work builds on recent advances in foundation models in the language and image domains to explore similar approaches for seismic source characterization. We rely on an architecture called Barlow Twins, borrowed from an understanding of the human visual cortical system and originally envisioned for the image domain and adapt it for learning path invariance in seismic event time series. Our model improves the performance on event characterization tasks such as source discrimination across catalogs by 10-12% and provides more reliable predictive uncertainty estimates. We suggest that dataset scale and diversity more than architecture may determine aspects of the current ceiling on performance. We leverage decision trees, linear models, and visualization to understanding the dependencies in learned representations.

While generative modeling facilitates probabilistic time series forecasting, incorporating heterogeneous exogenous information remains challenging. Diffusion Transformers (DiT) provide a scalable framework for conditional generation, yet their adaptation to forecasting calls for conditioning mechanisms tailored to time series. Endogenous targets and exogenous covariates differ in sources, semantics, and statistical characteristics, while sharing temporal coordinates that support fine-grained conditional guidance. Covariates can describe future variability and temporal dependence beyond the conditional mean targeted by direct regression. Motivated by these considerations, we propose Diffusion Transformers for Time Series (DiTS), a Multimodal Diffusion Transformer for covariate-aware forecasting. DiTS models endogenous targets and exogenous covariates as distinct modalities, jointly conditioning future generation on target history and available covariates. Flow matching makes covariate-dependent distributional information relevant to velocity prediction conditioned on noisy future states. We introduce Time-aligned Modulation, extending AdaLN with the temporal-alignment prior to generate patch-wise modulation parameters from aligned covariates and diffusion time. Across diverse covariate-aware forecasting tasks, DiTS achieves strong performance in both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting, demonstrating the effectiveness of conditional generation for both point and distributional forecasting.

Differentially private time-series generators commonly produce fixed-length synthetic windows, whereas downstream forecasting models often require long continuous training sequences. How these windows are assembled after generation can therefore alter the effective synthetic data presented to a forecaster, even when the trained generator remains unchanged. We study this post-generation sequence assembly process by systematically varying overlap rates and window-weighting schemes and evaluating the resulting sequences in terms of boundary continuity, statistical and temporal fidelity, and Train-on-Synthetic-Test-on-Real (TSTR) forecasting utility. Across four types of public datasets (ETTh1, ETTm1, Weather, and Appliances) and five forecasting models, the results reveal a clear forecaster-dependent assembly principle: downstream TSTR utility is jointly shaped by the forecaster, overlap rate, and window-weighting scheme, leading to distinct assembly preferences across forecasting models. Increased overlap generally improves boundary continuity, but improvements in continuity or individual fidelity diagnostics do not consistently reduce forecasting error, indicating that these diagnostics alone are insufficient for selecting assembly configurations. Complete five-forecaster assembly grids, together with matched Train-on-Real-Test-on-Real (TRTR) references, further characterize these regularities and quantify assembly-dependent utility relative to real-data training. We then validate the identified principles through additional analyses of robustness and generator variability.

Multiparameter persistent homology is a rapidly developing branch of topological data analysis that improves the robustness of single-parameter persistent homology to outliers, while still capturing the metric characteristics of the data. However, a notable limitation is its lack of scalability. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for efficiently computing 2-parameter persistent homology on large point sets. Our work extends the Flood filtration, originally developed for single-parameter persistence. Our construction, called the sublevel Flood bifiltration, offers a scalable approximation of the sublevel offset bifiltration. We show that it benefits from theoretical stability properties and describe how to compute it efficiently. We demonstrate the performance of our approach in classification tasks on low-dimensional synthetic datasets, where density awareness is critical, as well as on real-world time series datasets.

Many machine learning systems try to explain complex data - like images or financial time series - in terms of hidden, independent factors that generated them. Recovering the true underlying factors, rather than some scrambled version of them, is the central challenge of nonlinear Independent Component Analysis (nICA). We prove identifiability (exact recovery) up to trivial ambiguities for real analytic generating functions when source probability density functions have a finite number of discontinuities in the first derivative. The Laplace distribution is the most prominent example satisfying this assumption. Our proof relies on the contrast between kinks in the source distribution and the smoothness of real analytic functions. Real analytic functions comprise a broad class of generating mechanisms, and can be approximated with Normalizing Flows or Variational Autoencoders with standard activation functions (e.g., tanh, softplus, GELU), so our result applies with minimal changes to existing training pipelines. We perform experiments on real and synthetic data with both Normalizing Flows and Variational Auto-Encoders demonstrating their identifiability properties. In experiments on CelebA data we recover several interpretable latent factors controlling unique attributes across the dataset.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have shown strong zero-shot forecasting performance, but their generalization in covariate-driven, non-stationary settings is underexplored. Electricity price forecasting (EPF) presents a challenging testbed due to complex temporal dependencies, distributional shifts, and strong reliance on structural and contextual information. We propose a two-dataset-benchmarking framework for EPF to mitigate contamination risk and enable fair evaluation of TSFMs. We examine key aspects of EPF including point and probabilistic forecasting performance, tail behavior, price spikes, and comparisons against domain-specific methods. We find that TSFMs are highly competitive and often outperform general-purpose baselines. Yet, their performance depends critically on covariate support, and they do not consistently surpass domain-specific methods tailored to EPF. Interestingly, simple ensembles of TSFMs and domain-specific methods appear to have significant potential, suggesting that the two approaches capture complementary predictive information.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the kernel parameters are routinely estimated by the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), as implemented by standard GP software. Despite this widespread use, the asymptotic behavior of the MLEs remains poorly understood under fixed-domain asymptotics, even for the RBF kernel. The main difficulty arises from the increasingly strong dependence among densely sampled observations and the nonlinear dependence of the covariance matrix on the kernel parameters. In this paper, we address this gap by providing, to the best of our knowledge, the first complete asymptotic characterization of the joint MLE of the spatial variance, lengthscale, and nugget variance under fixed-domain asymptotics. We establish consistency, derive convergence rates for all three parameters, prove joint asymptotic normality, and show that these rates are minimax optimal.

With the rise of univariate time series foundation models (e.g., Sundial, Timer), initial efforts have been made to extend them to multivariate settings. However, these models mainly focus on modeling correlations among variables. When they are applied to multi-station weather forecasting, two important factors are often overlooked: (1) the spatial information of stations, and (2) different error priors of different stations relative to the foundation model. In this paper, we propose WxFM-XL, a model for adapting univariate time series foundation models to multi-station weather forecasting. WxFM-XL introduces a cross-station error correlation prior graph to capture stationwise error priors with respect to the foundation model. Building on this, we further propose a dynamic fusion mechanism that adaptively integrates a spatial correlation graph with the error correlation prior graph. Experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms state of the art baselines.

Physical reservoir computing exploits the nonlinear dynamics of physical systems to process time-dependent data with greater energy efficiency than conventional machine learning approaches. However, physical reservoirs have fixed intrinsic response timescales, whereas real-world signals combine deterministic and stochastic components across multiple timescales. Here we show, using a nanoporous niobium oxide reservoir, synthetic noisy signals and cryptocurrency-price volatility, that the relationship among noise correlation time, reservoir memory and forecast horizon determines whether correlated noise is filtered or predicted. Noise varying faster than the relevant reservoir memory and forecast horizon is averaged by the reservoir, whereas the temporal structure of slower-varying noise is sufficient for algorithmic forecasting. We introduce the reservoir memory horizon and forecasting regime index to distinguish these operating regimes. These contributions demonstrate that timescale matching can guide the encoding of input time series and development of physical reservoir architectures that filter, analyse and predict stochastic signal components across distinct temporal scales.

The proposed approach relies on high-frequency multivariate time series collected at the Seine aval (SIAAP 1 ) treatment plant, including pH, temperature, conductivity, and total suspended solids, as well as exogenous variables related to precipitation and measurements from an upstream plant. The objective is to forecast wastewater quality over a 24-hour horizon. A multivariate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network is implemented to capture complex temporal dependencies and nonlinear patterns in the data. The model is trained on one year of data and validated on four months of data (one per season), and is compared with a persistence model and SARIMA models. The evaluation shows an overall superiority of the LSTM model, particularly for variables exhibiting high levels of noise and nonlinearity.

Models with near-identical predictive performance can yield substantially different predictions, a phenomenon known as predictive multiplicity. Prior work has mostly studied this at the level of individual scalar outputs. In time-series forecasting, however, predictions across horizons jointly define a trajectory, and horizon-wise comparisons can hide important differences in predictive behavior. To address this problem, we introduce temporal predictive multiplicity, a framework that characterizes disagreement over complete forecast trajectories among models with near-identical predictive performance. We show that constraining predictive performance alone can still admit a broad range of different trajectories. We further show that constraining multiplicity at individual horizons partially reduces, but does not eliminate, trajectory-level multiplicity. Experiments with 19 neural forecasting architectures on 11 datasets confirm that near-optimal models can exhibit substantial variability in the forecast trajectories they produce, and trajectory-level disagreement is largely unrelated to horizon-wise disagreement. Our framework, therefore, exposes a gap in existing multiplicity studies: models with indistinguishable predictive performance imply fundamentally different temporal trajectories, with consequential downstream effects.

To better forecast mixed-frequency time series, it is the key to choose a suitable way for frequency alignment. However, the existing methods are all limited to linear transformations, and this may overlook the possible nonlinearity, leading to a worse prediction. We alternatively consider a deep neural network for each frequency alignment, and hence a depth-separable neural network. Moreover, a parameter-sharing mechanism is adopted across the alignment at each stage, making possible a deeper network for a large set of higher-frequency predictors. This paper establishes an approximation theory for the proposed depth-separable network, and a non-asymptotic prediction error bound is also derived. Simulation studies demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed method, and an empirical application to forecasting U.S. quarterly macroeconomic variables using monthly and daily indicators, highlights its superior predictive accuracy over existing mixed-frequency methods.

Machine Learning (ML) has transformed many scientific fields, yet key applications still lack standardized benchmarks. Raman spectroscopy, a widely used technique for non-invasive molecular analysis, is one such field where progress is limited by fragmented datasets, inconsistent evaluation, and models that fail to capture the structure of spectral data. We introduce RamanBench, the first large-scale, fully reproducible benchmark for ML on Raman spectroscopy, consisting of streamlined data access, evaluation protocols and code, as well as a live leaderboard. It unifies 74 datasets (including 16 first released with this benchmark) across four domains, comprising 325,668 spectra and spanning classification and regression tasks under diverse experimental conditions. We benchmark 28 models under a standardized protocol, including classical methods (e.g., PLS), Raman-specific (e.g., RamanNet), Tabular Foundation Model (TFM) (e.g., TabPFN), and time-series approaches (e.g., ROCKET). TFM consistently outperform domain-specific and gradient boosting baselines, while time-series models remain competitive. However, no method generalizes across datasets, revealing a fundamental gap. Therefore, we invite the community to contribute new approaches to our living benchmark, with the potential to accelerate advances in critical applications such as medical diagnostics, biological research, and materials science.

https://huggingface.co/spaces/HTW-KI-Werkstatt/RamanBench

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems record operations as transactions spread across hundreds of normalized relational tables. Extracting an operational key performance indicator (KPI) from this schema requires a separate, bespoke join for almost every metric. We show that an event log, a canonical (case, activity, timestamp) representation derived from the same tables, collapses this heterogeneity into one flat structure, from which KPI families reduce to reusable operations after a one-time mapping. Using standardized event logs built from hundreds of SAP S/4HANA customers under a shared activity ontology, we define three families of process-derived KPIs (volumes, durations, and rates) and extract them uniformly across customer systems for two common end-to-end organizational processes, order-to-cash and procure-to-pay. We normalize rates and screen series for minimum coverage to support comparison across customers of very different sizes. We then characterize heterogeneity across industries and tenants using descriptors derived directly from the canonical form, before analyzing the resulting KPI time series. The same process executes heterogeneously across customers and industries, yet this shared representation enables direct comparison of sales- and procurement-side signals, including lead times and order arrivals. Using this shared representation, we characterize which KPI families are forecastable and find a recurring ordering from volumes through durations to rates across both processes and a highly heterogeneous customer base; a pretrained time-series foundation model (Chronos) is competitive with classical baselines such as ARIMA and ETS on rate and duration series, while classical models retain an edge on volumes.

accepted in D2AI at IEEE ICDM 2026

Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems. Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have recently achieved strong performance in point forecasting by jointly modeling temporal dynamics and relational dependencies across interconnected energy nodes. However, in real-world energy systems, accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient, as operators also require reliable uncertainty estimates to support risk-aware decision-making, grid stability, and operational planning under uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides a principled and model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification under exchangeability assumptions, making it particularly attractive for safety-critical energy applications. However, existing conformal prediction approaches often fail to fully capture the complex spatial-temporal structure of energy systems. To address these limitations, we propose STOIC (Spatial-Temporal uncertainty quantificatiOn via In-Context learning), a conformal-inspired post-hoc residual calibration framework that integrates graph-based forecasting with the in-context learning capabilities of tabular foundation models. STOIC first generates point forecasts using an STGNN and subsequently reformulates spatial-temporal residuals into a tabular representation suitable for in-context learning. Leveraging a tabular foundation model, STOIC estimates feature-conditional residual quantiles without task-specific retraining of the calibration model, effectively capturing both sequential and relational dependencies. STOIC should be viewed as a conformal-inspired residual calibration method and does not by itself provide a finite-sample distribution-free coverage guarantee under arbitrary temporal dependence...

Accepted to Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR)

Accurate and efficient time-series forecasting remains a challenging problem for both classical and quantum neural architectures, particularly in multivariate environmental settings. This work adapts the Quantum Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (QLIF) spiking neural network for time-series regression tasks, specifically short-term multivariate weather forecasting. We extend QLIF beyond classification and demonstrate its applicability to continuous-valued prediction problems. The QLIF-CAST model encodes neuron excitation states as single-qubit quantum superpositions, driven by R_x rotation gates and T1 relaxation decay, and is embedded within a hybrid quantum-classical recurrent architecture. We conduct two distinct evaluations. First, a controlled comparison against a parameter-matched classical LIF baseline on a multivariate weather dataset shows that QLIF-CAST achieves 15.4% lower MSE and 4.4% lower MAE, demonstrating that quantum neuronal dynamics reduce prediction error over classical equivalents. Second, a cross-domain comparative analysis with state-of-the-art quantum LSTM (QLSTM) and quantum neural network (QNN) models on air quality and wind speed benchmarks reveals that QLIF-CAST converges in up to 94% less training time, occupying a distinct position in the speed-error trade-off space. Hardware verification on IBM Marrakesh (156-qubit QPU) confirms reliable circuit execution with only 1.2% average deviation from simulation.

To appear at the IEEE International Conference on Quantum Artificial Intelligence (QAI), Nottingham, UK, December 2026

Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) identifies deviations from patterns learned from historical data. In non-stationary settings, distribution drift and true anomalies can cause similar local changes, making it difficult to tell whether a deviation reflects abnormality or evolving context. Existing methods typically adapt to detected shifts or learn drift-insensitive representations, but do not resolve this ambiguity. We define this problem as \emph{temporal change disambiguation}: determining whether a local deviation is explained by broader temporal evolution. We introduce MORA, a drift-robust TSAD framework that reconstructs the same local target from paired short- and long-term views. The reconstruction gap measures contextual support for a local deviation, and a data-dependent correction mechanism conservatively adjusts the primary local anomaly score. Context can only reduce the score when it improves reconstruction of the same target. MORA needs neither drift annotations nor online adaptation. Experiments on four TSAD benchmarks show strong robustness to non-stationarity while preserving sensitivity to genuine anomalies.

Inertial confinement fusion (ICF) is a leading pathway toward clean energy, but each shot at the National Ignition Facility costs on the order of one million dollars, making accurate AI surrogates a high-value target. We study exogenous-driven ICF waveform prediction, where a 512-step neutron-rate diagnostic must be inferred directly from a laser pulse and target design parameters, with no historical response observed. The regime stresses standard time-series predictors with temporal sparsity (picosecond peak in a nanosecond window), input-output scale mismatch (under 300 real shots), and peak sensitivity (picosecond timing). We propose ICF-DLM, to our knowledge the first LM-based ICF predictor, combining (i) a physics-typed decomposition into yield $Y_{DT}$, peak timing $t_{\mathrm{peak}}$, and local waveform $w_{\mathrm{local}}$; (ii) bidirectional denoising that defers commitment to peak location; and (iii) a physics-driven PPO reward re-injecting metric structure across numeric tokens. On ICFBench (50K simulations + 232 experimental shots), ICF-DLM cuts peak-timing error from 11.6 to 9.2 steps over a matched autoregressive LLaMA-3-8B and outperforms classical sequence models and LLM-based time-series predictors. Beyond ICF, the recipe shows potential to address science domains with low data and sparse events.

Retrieval-augmented time-series forecasting uses the continuations of historical segments similar to the current context as references for a forecaster. Most existing methods build the retrieval memory once from the training segment, leaving observations revealed after deployment unavailable as references, and generally do not calibrate how much the retrieved information should influence a frozen forecaster. We identify two key determinants of retrieval utility for a frozen forecaster: whether the history still reflects the current state, and whether the correction it induces aligns with the forecaster's residual errors, an alignment that can shift between validation and deployment when the memory becomes stale. We propose FreshCast, a plug-in retrieval framework that keeps the forecaster frozen, continuously updates a non-parametric memory with new observations, forms a memory forecast through relational kernel regression, and calibrates its weight in closed form on the validation segment. Under a simplified generative model, we characterize the optimal combination gain through the second-order relation between forecaster error and memory correction, and show that a sufficiently long look-back can make periodic memory information redundant. Across seven benchmarks and ten forecasting architectures, FreshCast reduces average MSE for every evaluated forecaster and input length, by 14.6% and 5.6% at input lengths 96 and 720, and achieves lower MSE than the evaluated retrieval-augmented and online baselines in their comparison settings. Ablations show that freezing the memory at the end of training removes most of the gain, identifying post-training observations as a primary source of improvement. For a frozen forecaster, useful historical references must remain timely and provide information that helps correct its remaining errors.

13 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables, Work in progress

While established literature underscores the pivotal role of preprocessing in forecasting accuracy, this stage remains largely overlooked in current research. Modern benchmarks typically resort to simple scaling, failing to account for critical transformations required to address nonstationarity, such as differencing. This omission creates a significant structural preprocessing bias that favors models with built-in data treatments while obscuring the true potential of simpler architectures. We study this effect through a preprocessing-aware benchmark that evaluates 11 forecasting models across 16 reversible preprocessing pipelines on 29,000 M4 time series. Our results identify preprocessing as a key driver of forecasting performance. Optimizing preprocessing per series yields gains of approximately 27% to 87% across all evaluated models, with architectures lacking internalized preprocessing experiencing the most substantial improvements. This allows simpler architectures to become highly competitive with complex, state-of-the-art models in modern forecasting benchmarks. All resources and experimental results from this benchmark are stored in a comprehensive metadataset to support future metalearning tasks.

29 pages, 9 figures. Under Review

Performance issues in software systems are a critical quality issue that can erode user trust, violate service-level agreements, and ultimately affect business efficiency. Consequently, software performance engineering has shifted its focus to developing robust techniques to detect performance regressions as early as possible in the development cycle. Performance regression analysis often relies on time series of performance measurements to detect significant changes in performance behavior. Change Point Detection (CPD) methods have been widely used to automate the identification of such changes in various domains, including finance, healthcare, and performance monitoring. However, the effectiveness of these methods for software performance measurements has not been thoroughly evaluated. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study to evaluate the effectiveness of various CPD methods on real-world software performance measurement datasets. We start by collecting performance measurement data from three large software systems and characterizing the unique properties of performance time series data. Then, we undertake a large-scale effort to annotate and evaluate the consistency of human annotators' identification of potential performance changes. Thereafter, we evaluate the accuracy of twelve distinct CPD methods in detecting potential performance changes, providing insights into their applicability and effectiveness in software performance regression analysis.

Accurate and low latency channel estimation is critical for modern MIMO systems, particularly under mobility, where channels exhibit structured sparsity and strong temporal correlation. This paper proposes a time-series conditioned diffusion framework for channel estimation that performs denoising in the angular domain. Starting from least squares (LS) observations, we train a diffusion denoiser whose conditioning information is encoded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) network over a short observation sequence, enabling the model to exploit temporal dynamics beyond per-snapshot estimation. To robustly balance observation fidelity and learned generative priors across a wide signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) range, we introduce a learnable SNR-gated late-fusion shortcut that injects the network input into the final decoding stage through a sigmoid gate with trainable center and scale. To reduce inference latency, we adopt deterministic denoising diffusion implicit model (DDIM) style reverse updates with SNR-adaptive truncation and step allocation, which significantly reduces the number of reverse diffusion steps at high SNR while maintaining strong performance in low SNR regimes. Simulations on time-evolving standardized channel models demonstrate that the proposed method achieves consistent performance gains over existing diffusion-based channel estimation baselines, while retaining low latency through SNR-adaptive inference.

5 pages, 5 figures. Accepted by and presented at the 2026 IEEE 104th Vehicular Technology Conference (VTC2026-Fall)

The current trend in the literature on Time Series Classification is to develop increasingly accurate algorithms by combining multiple models in ensemble hybrids, representing time series in complex and expressive feature spaces, and extracting features from different representations of the same time series. As a consequence of this focus on predictive performance, the best time series classifiers are black-box models, which are not understandable from a human standpoint. Even the approaches that are regarded as interpretable, such as shapelet-based ones, rely on randomization to maintain computational efficiency. This poses challenges for interpretability, as the explanation can change from run to run. Given these limitations, we propose the Bag-Of-Receptive-Field (BORF), a fast, interpretable, and deterministic time series transform. Building upon the classical Bag-Of-Patterns, we bridge the gap between convolutional operators and discretization, enhancing the Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with dilation and stride, which can more effectively capture temporal patterns at multiple scales. We propose an algorithmic speedup that reduces the time complexity associated with SAX-based classifiers, allowing the extension of the Bag-Of-Patterns to the more flexible Bag-Of-Receptive-Fields, represented as a sparse multivariate tensor. The empirical results from testing our proposal on more than 150 univariate and multivariate classification datasets demonstrate good accuracy and great computational efficiency compared to traditional SAX-based methods and state-of-the-art time series classifiers, while providing easy-to-understand explanations.

Accepted version of the article published in IEEE Access (2024), CC BY 4.0. Substantially revised from v1 ("A Bag of Receptive Fields for Time Series Extrinsic Predictions"), which also covered time series extrinsic regression. Code: https://github.com/fspinna/borf

High-resolution scientific data, such as geomagnetic index streams, often exhibit complex temporal dependencies that can be modeled through functional data analysis. Conventional functional time series (FTS) methods typically partition continuous processes into non-overlapping segments, which artificially fragments temporal continuity and can limit estimation efficiency and stability. This is particularly evident in geomagnetic time series prediction due to their noisy, sudden, and large-scale changes. This study presents a robust multivariate FTS forecasting framework for multi-dimensional time series with inter-series correlations and the existence of exogenous predictors. We introduce an overlapping rolling-window scheme that preserves temporal coherence and mitigates boundary information loss, thereby enriching the effective sample size for a more efficient and stable estimation. We integrate functional principal component analysis for dimension reduction with a vector autoregressive model with exogenous inputs to capture latent dynamics across correlated series. We also construct computationally efficient conformal prediction intervals for uncertainty quantification. The framework is motivated by and applied to the simultaneous forecasting of five critical geomagnetic indices, Kp, Dst, SYM-H, SME, and SMR, using solar wind parameters as predictors. Empirical results show that this approach outperforms state-of-the-art machine learning baselines, extends forecast horizons to 6-24 hours, and provides calibrated uncertainty bounds.

The following motif is common in spatiotemporal settings: we have a sequence of covariate and label pairs observed for a relatively short, recent time period. We have access to unlabeled covariates over a longer time period. Data is observed over many spatial locations. For instance, crop yield might be observed over a large geographical area for recent years, but weather data (which is informative about crop yield) is available for a much longer period. The goal is to estimate, at each spatial location, the expected label (e.g., crop yield) in the future and provide a valid confidence interval for this value. The observed time period alone is too short for reliable estimates. Imputing missing labels with machine learning can cause substantial bias. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) can correct for this bias, but it relies on an i.i.d. assumption that breaks under our expected temporal dependencies. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) procedures account for temporal correlation, but have not been adapted to cases where some labels are imputed. We provide reliable point estimates and confidence intervals given: short labeled time series (across spatial locations), a longer unlabeled time series, and an imperfect predictor of labels given covariates. We show our method outperforms natural alternatives.

Accepted to TS-LIMITS Workshop at NeurIPS 2026

State-space models (SSMs) are a widely used tool in time series analysis. In the complex systems that arise from real-world data, it is common to employ particle filtering (PF), an efficient Monte Carlo method for estimating the hidden state corresponding to a sequence of observations. Applying particle filtering requires specifying both the parametric form and the parameters of the system, which are often unknown and must be estimated. Gradient-based optimisation techniques cannot be applied directly to standard particle filters, as the filters themselves are not differentiable. However, several recently proposed methods modify the resampling step to make particle filtering differentiable. In this paper, we present an implementation of several such differentiable particle filters (DPFs) with a unified API built on the popular PyTorch framework. Our implementation makes these algorithms easily accessible to a broader research community and facilitates straightforward comparison between them. We validate our framework by reproducing experiments from several existing studies and demonstrate how DPFs can be applied to address several common challenges with state space modelling.

46 pages, 0 figures, under review at the Journal of Statistical Software, the python package can be found at https://pypi.org/project/pydpf/ , the full documentation at https://python-dpf.readthedocs.io/en/latest/#documentation-index , and the source code including experiment replication material at https://github.com/John-JoB/pydpf

Probabilistic load forecasting has been widely studied for power-system operation and planning, but customer- and transformer-level forecasting introduces a distinct scalability challenge. At these levels, load uncertainty is strongly affected by customer behavior, weather, and mixed load composition, making it difficult for a single shared model to capture heterogeneous patterns. Using separate probabilistic models can improve local accuracy, but becomes costly to train, store, update, and validate at scale. To address this challenge, we develop a scalable customer-aware forecasting framework that learns common demand behavior through a shared model while adapting only a compact subset of parameters. Rather than using an independent model for each load or assigning each load to a specialized model, the proposed design learns a small bank of low-dimensional adaptation components and allows each load to combine them according to its forecasting characteristics. This preserves shared knowledge across customers while providing sufficient flexibility for heterogeneous and mixed load compositions. Experiments on 590 load profiles from the SMART-DS dataset show consistent improvements in deterministic accuracy and probabilistic quality over statistical, neural-network, Transformer-based, and pretrained time-series baselines, while retaining low storage and inference costs.

Small multiple time series visualizations are often used for real-time data monitoring tasks in high-impact domains such as healthcare and manufacturing. Effective design is critical because users rely on these visualizations to monitor data from many entities, such as patients or machines, often while distracted. Users may need to rapidly appraise current values for each entity, monitoring for those that go outside an acceptable range, while also watching temporal trends. However, no design guidelines currently exist for visually emphasizing current values in historical time series represented by small multiples. Via an iterative design process informed by a review of related literature and theory on visual channels and emphasis, we present a design space for glanceable time series small multiple displays. We evaluate this space through two online empirical studies, testing against non-threshold and threshold rapid appraisal tasks. Our results provide insights into merging current value and historical data visualizations for rapid appraisal tasks in time series monitoring. For non-threshold tasks, we found that size encodings on the current value, spatially integrated into the line chart, may provide a good compromise, with 28% response time improvement for tasks involving finding large current values and minimal interference with trend lookup tasks. More generally, integrated designs outperformed separated designs (in which the current value representation is spatially separated from the historical trend line). For threshold tasks, color threshold encodings significantly outperformed shaded band encodings. All supplemental materials are available at https://osf.io/wzf6a.

16 pages, 9 figures, to be published in IEEE TVCG

The logarithmic multiplicative error model (log-vMEM) has been useful in modeling and forecasting multivariate positive-valued financial time series. The number of parameters grow rapidly with the dimension of the system and the lag order, making estimation computationally demanding in high-dimensional settings. This paper describes regularized estimation via hierarchical lag structures (Nicholson et al., 2020) for log-vMEM models with multivariate gamma error distribution of Tsionas (2004). The parameter estimation is performed using a blockwise coordinate descent algorithm with a Gauss-Seidel-style update scheme (Wright, 2015). This enables an efficient computation strategy compared to traditional penalized maximum likelihood approaches. The competing models are juxtaposed against each other by combining three hierarchical lag structures (componentwise, elementwise, own-other) and four penalties(group-lasso, adaptive group-lasso, group-mcp, and group-scad). Extensive simulation runs have been performed to test the parameter recovery for both the unpenalized and the penalized models. We apply the proposed methods to model the joint dynamics of robust intraday realized volatility measures for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) for the competing models. The numerical integration step of the log-likelihood is identified to be the principal computational bottleneck. We address this issue by using GPU-accelerated quadrature integration thus improving computational scalability of the proposed models.

ISBIS-STATFIN Conference 2026 contributed talk (Conference link: https://statfin.cmi.ac.in/ISBIS2026/, Talk link: https://statfin.cmi.ac.in/ISBIS2026/#:~:text=72-,Rohan%20Chattre,-UConn)

We propose a method for identifying individuals based on their continuously monitored wrist-worn accelerometry during activities of daily living. The method consists of three steps: (1) using Adaptive Empirical Pattern Transformation (ADEPT), a highly specific method to identify walking; (2) transforming the accelerometry time series into an image that corresponds to the joint distribution of the time series and its lags; and (3) using the resulting images to construct a person-specific walking fingerprint. The method is applied to 15,000 individuals from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) with up to 7 days of wrist accelerometry data collected at 80 Hertz. The resulting dataset contains more than 10 terabytes, is roughly 2 to 3 orders of magnitude larger than previous datasets used for activity recognition, is collected in the free living environment, and does not contain labels for walking periods. Using extensive cross-validation studies, we show that our method is highly predictive and can be successfully extended to a large, heterogeneous sample representative of the U.S. population: in the highest-performing model, the correct participant is in the top 1% of predictions 96% of the time.

19 pages, 7 tables, 7 figures

Bayesian inference can often be sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters of the prior or likelihood, yet defining and quantifying this sensitivity in a principled and computationally feasible way remains challenging in practice. Unfortunately, existing sensitivity methods are rarely applicable in modern Bayesian workflows due to their high computational cost and poor performance in moderate to high dimensions. To address these limitations, we introduce a new approach to global sensitivity analysis based on the Fisher divergence. Our method only requires a set of samples from a reference posterior and the ability to evaluate score functions, making it broadly computationally tractable. Under mild regularity conditions, it controls changes in the whole posterior, and provides a bound on the impact of perturbations on the first two moments. We demonstrate these strengths on challenging Bayesian inference problems which are practically out of reach of existing approaches, including generalised Bayesian inference for unnormalised models, inference in Bayesian models of time series, and neural simulation-based inference.

Maritime systems operate in highly dynamic environments where unexpected equipment failures can compromise safety, reliability, and operational efficiency. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, digital twins, and predictive maintenance enable proactive failure prediction and prevention. However, ensuring trustworthy and explainable decision-making remains a major challenge in safety-critical maritime applications. This chapter reviews key AI technologies required for explainable failure prediction and prevention in maritime systems and presents a conceptual architecture capable of supporting autonomous or human-in-the-loop corrective actions. This architecture integrates data acquisition, time-series forecasting, anomaly detection, risk assessment, decision-making, and explainable AI into a closed-loop framework. With reference to the architectural components, a review and discussion of relevant maritime studies is performed, outlining their methods, advantages, and limitations. Furthermore, it highlights current challenges, including uncertainty and robustness, model generalization, explainability, limited availability of maritime datasets, and operational deployment, and identifies future research directions toward trustworthy AI-assisted maritime decision-making.

District heating energy hubs require reliable heat load forecasts for efficient operational scheduling. Forecasting models trained on historical data may require retraining as networks evolve. Zero-shot time-series foundation models and in-context forecasting therefore offer a promising alternative: they can adapt at inference time from recent observations rather than by repeated retraining. This study systematically evaluates TabPFN-TS and Chronos-2 for probabilistic heat load forecasting in two German district heating networks and compares them with trained baselines. We assess whether TabPFN-TS, whose underlying model is pretrained entirely on synthetic tabular rather than time-series data, can capture complex district heating dynamics. We analyze covariate choice, context length, temporal resolution, and forecast horizon on selected operating weeks, evaluate the selected configuration over the full year, and assess cross-network transfer. The principal benchmark assumes perfect weather forecasts; a separate sensitivity analysis uses retrospective weather predictions. Hourly 24-hour forecasting with a 12-week rolling context and ambient temperature provides a parsimonious configuration; longer context windows do not improve accuracy. Both TSFMs outperform all trained baselines in deterministic accuracy in the full-year benchmarks. Chronos-2 achieves the best deterministic scores, with TabPFN-TS remaining close: their CVRMSE values on the main data set are 12.48% and 13.07%, respectively. Chronos-2 also achieves lower continuous ranked probability scores in both networks, with TabPFN-TS remaining close. a TSFM-based Multi-Resolution Residual-Correction Forecaster combines an hourly base forecast with short-term high-resolution corrections. Relative to direct high-resolution forecasting, it generally reduces errors in total heat demand over 12-hour periods and recorded prediction times.

43 pages, 10 figures; Supplementary Information included. Revised following peer review, with expanded evaluation and uncertainty analysis

The design of learning objectives is central to training time-series forecasting models. Existing learning objectives such as mean squared error mostly treat each future step as an independent, equally weighted task, which leads to the following two challenges: (1) they overlook the label autocorrelation effect among future steps, leading to biased learning objectives; (2) they fail to set heterogeneous task weights for different forecasting tasks corresponding to varying future steps, limiting the forecasting performance. To fill this gap, we propose a novel quadratic-form weighted learning objective, addressing both issues simultaneously. Specifically, the off-diagonal elements of the weighting matrix account for the label autocorrelation effect, whereas the non-uniform diagonals are expected to match the preferred weights of the forecasting tasks with varying future steps. On this basis, we propose a Quadratic Direct Forecast (QDF) learning algorithm, which trains the forecast model using the adaptively updated quadratic-form weighting matrix. Experiments show that our QDF effectively improves the performance of various forecast models, achieving state-of-the-art results. Code is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/QDF.

Accepted by ICLR 2026

Automated microservice root cause analysis (RCA) is usually evaluated by whether the final answer localizes the fault source. This is insufficient for on-call site reliability engineers (SREs), who need the evidence and reasoning behind the fault. Evaluating the process is hard because agent trajectories interleave free-form reasoning with heterogeneous tool calls and telemetry results, making it difficult to assess agents' behavior. To assess how well RCA agents ground diagnoses in evidence, we propose a trajectory-analysis methodology that characterizes evidence navigation and utilization, SRE-oriented diagnostic intent, and recurring failure modes. Our key insight is that fault-propagation paths give a causal reference for where agents investigate and how they use evidence. With it, we analyze 5,000 trajectories from ten framework-backbone configurations (nine agent frameworks, two backbone models) on RCABench. Correct localization can hide deficiencies in causal reconstruction. Successful investigations use retrieved evidence to guide later queries, consider broader diagnostic intents, and investigate more deeply. Failed investigations drift toward unrelated services or repeat shallow queries; recurring failures arise from omitted evidence, misinterpreted evidence, and unsupported reasoning. To test whether these patterns can guide improvement, we build a lightweight defense prototype targeting the three failure families. Across two held-out benchmarks, two backbone models, and six diagnostic frameworks, the failure patterns recur; the prototype reduces their prevalence and raises Acc@1 by 3.5-35.1 percentage points in every configuration, suggesting that the mined failures generalize and are actionable. Our findings motivate a process-level view of automated RCA, in which trajectories reveal whether a diagnosis is correct, well-grounded, and open to improvement.

23 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables

Driving world action models (WAMs) learn from paired trajectories and future observations. Post-training with reinforcement learning allows the policy to explore alternative trajectories and improve planning using driving rewards. However, driving logs contain future videos only for the recorded trajectories, leaving these alternatives without corresponding visual supervision. Thus, we introduce SimVTA, a simulation-grounded post-training framework that combines trajectory optimization with video supervision. First, we sample candidate trajectories for each observation and use a real-world simulator (e.g., World Engine) to render future videos for high-reward candidates in real-world scenes reconstructed with 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). This provides trajectory-matched supervision independent of the model's own predictions. Under a limited rendering budget, we prioritize video supervision for higher-error futures among these rendered candidates. Finally, we optimize trajectory planning with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) and use a flow-matching loss on the matched videos to update shared representations. At inference time, the model predicts trajectories directly, without simulator calls. On NAVSIM v1, applying SimVTA to a WAM initialization improves PDMS from 86.2 to 91.3 (+5.1). It achieves 88.2 EPDMS on NAVSIM v2 and an average HD-Score of 38.8 in closed-loop evaluation on HUGSIM. Ablations show that updating shared representations with video supervision improves planning, while prioritizing higher-error futures among high-reward trajectories further improves performance.

Project page: https://opendrivelab.com/SimVTA/

Trajectory prediction is essential for formulating proactive strategies that anticipate user mobility and support advance preparation. Therefore, how to reduce the forecasting error in user trajectory prediction within an acceptable inference time arises as an interesting issue. However, trajectory data contains both global and local temporal information, complicating the extraction of the complete temporal pattern. Moreover, user behavior occurs over different time scales, increasing the difficulty of capturing behavioral patterns. To address these challenges, a trajectory prediction model based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), multi-scale convolutional neural network (MSCNN), and cross-attention (CA) is proposed. Specifically, MLP is used to extract the global temporal information of each feature. In parallel, MSCNN is employed to extract the local temporal information by modeling interactions among features within a local temporal range. Convolutional kernels with different sizes are used in MSCNN to capture temporal information at multiple resolutions, enhancing the model's adaptability to different behavioral patterns. Finally, CA is applied to fuse the global and local temporal information. Experimental results show that our model reduces mean squared error (MSE) by 5.04% and mean absolute error (MAE) by 4.35% compared with ModernTCN in 12-step prediction, while maintaining similar inference time.

This manuscript has not passed peer review

Humanoid tennis requires reactive whole-body coordination under rapidly changing ball dynamics, yet collecting task-specific motion-capture demonstrations that cover diverse approach states, contact locations, and timing conditions is costly. Inspired by how humans acquire new skills by combining reusable motor experience with task-specific demonstrations, we present ATHLETE, a framework for learning reactive humanoid tennis from generic locomotion data and ordinary tennis videos. ATHLETE combines LAFAN1 locomotion with video-derived striking motions and uses Trajectory-Guided Motion Matching (TGMM) to construct diverse task-conditioned whole-body references. These references are transformed into a reactive policy through physics-based teacher--student learning with online DAgger distillation, followed by PPO fine-tuning for the tennis task. The resulting policy responds directly to robot and ball observations without requiring reference-motion inputs at deployment. On a real humanoid robot, ATHLETE achieves forehand and backhand hit rates of $90.00%$ and $86.67%$, respectively, and enables multi-shot rallies with human players. These results demonstrate that ATHLETE can learn dynamic humanoid tennis skills from reusable locomotion data and video demonstrations. Result videos and code can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/w/ATHLETE2027/.

projectpage:https://hazintihoa.github.io/athlete.github.io/#overview

Anticipation of vessel trajectories is an essential task when navigating at sea. This applies to both human navigators and autonomous surface vessels. Trajectory forecasting enables sub-routines such as collision avoidance to assess the situation and react accordingly in time. This paper investigates Transformer and Performer models for trajectory prediction of surface vessels in confined waters. Using widely available position data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), candidate models are trained and evaluated. Historical information on how other vessels have moved in the local area surrounding each agent is conveyed using positional heat maps. The heat maps are generated using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and encoded with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) before entering the Transformer models. The models are trained with quantile loss to efficiently obtain a model-aware prediction interval, as this is crucial for timely collision avoidance. The proposed model architectures are shown to greatly outperform previous work while the inclusion of local heat maps enables the prediction of vessel movement that is not otherwise indicated from the previous positions.

Manuscript written in 2021. 16 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables

Background: Understanding whether patients follow similar or distinct patterns of care is important for characterizing clinical practice, identifying patient subgroups, and supporting quality improvement. However, routine healthcare trajectories are difficult to compare directly because patients may differ in their diagnostic workup, treatment sequencing, timing of clinical events, and documentation practices. Despite this variation, trajectories often contain recurring patterns at the cohort level. Methods: To address this challenge, we present a framework that explicitly separates cohort-level typical pathway identification from patient-level inference. At the cohort level, we derive an interpretable representation of care processes using a rule-based algorithm to identify typical healthcare pathways, resulting in a compact pathway graph. These pathways are then modeled as Markov chains and used as structured components in an admixture model, allowing each patient to be represented as a probabilistic mixture of typical pathways rather than being assigned to a single pathway component. The resulting admixture weights provide a compact representation of patient trajectories for subgroup characterization. We further assess the stability of the identified pathways and inferred admixture representations across multiple train-test splits. Results: Across train-test splits, the framework demonstrated consistent pathway structures and patient-level mixture patterns. Applied to routine care data from prostate cancer patients undergoing radical prostatectomy, the framework identified interpretable care patterns and supported the identification of patient subgroups with similar clinical event patterns. Conclusion: Overall, the proposed framework provides an interpretable and stable approach for summarizing treatment pathways and characterizing patient subgroups in real-world practice.

End-to-end planning in complex scenes must model diverse driving intentions and select the most appropriate trajectory using scene context and future risks. However, multi-query regression may collapse to one mode, while anchor-based and generative planners share a scaling bottleneck: small candidate sets limit maneuver coverage or discovery of high-quality trajectories, whereas large sets increase generation and scoring costs. We propose ManeuverFlow to generate trajectories for distinct intentions in one step and evaluate and refine them using current and future evidence. The model selects relevant maneuver modes, draws corresponding noise from the Gaussian mixture prior, and maps it to intention-specific trajectories through a maneuver-routed mixture-of-experts MeanFlow field. Current features and future features predicted by the world model are aggregated along each candidate path into trajectory-specific evidence for PDM-factor prediction. Using the same evidence, the refiner predicts local Frenet residuals for selected candidates; refined and retained candidates are then jointly re-scored for selection. With a lightweight TransFuser-style ResNet-34 backbone, ManeuverFlow achieves 90.6 PDMS and 90.1 EPDMS on NAVSIM v1/v2 navtest, respectively. On WorldEngine's recent 3DGS closed-loop benchmark, it attains the highest listed PDMS$^\ast$ scores of 75.19 and 74.58 under logged and IDM-controlled traffic, respectively. Code: https://github.com/wyh-autonomy/maneuverflow.

17 pages, 9 figures; includes appendix

Coding agents are increasingly deployed for end-to-end software engineering tasks, where a readily available oracle evaluator that defines the success criteria is often absent. This motivates verifications for coding agents that can reliably judge and explain their behavior. However, verification is non-trivial as coding agents are increasingly capable of solving long-horizon software engineering tasks. Their execution trajectories can be extremely long, containing hundreds of iterative interactions with code repositories and external tools. Existing verifiers either rely on general-purpose LLMs without specialized training or train dedicated critics that predominantly focus on producing scalar rewards, highlighting the relatively limited exploration of training-based generalist verification. We introduce SWE-Critix, a post-training pipeline for training generalist verifiers of coding-agent trajectories. Given a task and its execution trajectory, the learned verifier predicts the completion label and generates a natural-language analysis that explains its judgment. Our pipeline combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with reinforcement learning (RL) and trains a series of 30B models on trajectories from CodeForge-Preview. On a held-out test set, SWE-Critix improves classification accuracy from 57% for the base Qwen3-30B-A3B reasoning model to 66% after SFT and 78% after RL. We release our models, datasets, and training code to facilitate further research.

Open coding agents are commonly trained through supervised fine-tuning on interaction trajectories whose final patches pass the benchmark test suite. However, this outcome-level filtering criterion ignores process quality: trajectories that eventually succeed may still contain inefficient interaction patterns such as repetitive file inspection, unstable tool usage, or delayed modification behavior, all of which become part of the imitation target. We propose TQS (Trajectory Quality Score), a structural scoring framework for coding-agent trajectories that operates directly on trajectory structure, requires no LLM judge, and runs in linear time. TQS characterizes trajectory quality through structural signals organized around structured convergence: information focus, intent--action alignment, and policy dynamics. Using 155,144 successful trajectories from a public open-license corpus, we rank trajectories by TQS and fine-tune coding agents on filtered subsets. Models trained on top-ranked trajectories consistently outperform those trained on random or bottom-ranked subsets on SWE-Bench-Verified. Our results suggest that process-level trajectory quality is an important factor in coding-agent supervision and that structural trajectory filtering provides an effective and scalable alternative to LLM-based data selection.

Trajectory generation underpins urban applications such as traffic management and urban planning. Within road networks, vehicle movement along road segments is largely deterministic, whereas transitions at intersections are critical--multiple outgoing paths may appear equally plausible, yet they can lead to substantially different downstream routes. Existing generative methods such as diffusion models simulate location sequences and fail short of next transition selection, even producing trajectories that drift off the road network. To fill this gap, we advocate a fundamental shift: moving beyond location simulation toward behavior modeling on the road network. In this paper, we revisit trajectory generation through the lens of generative route planning, and introduce a new graph-constrained generative paradigm, Anticipatory Generative Modeling, which resolves next transition selection by incorporating the Anticipation of how the future route may unfold toward the destination. Concretely, we propose a novel generative model named Foresight that formulates a probabilistic model for an "anticipate--select--update--re-anticipate" loop that enables longer-term foresight while continuing sequential generation along the historical trajectory. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Foresight wins state-of-the-art baselines.

Failure attribution for LLM agents aims to identify decisive steps responsible for task failure, which is critical for debugging and improving agentic systems. Existing methods rely on costly LLM prompting, step-level error annotations, or verified successful trajectories that lack failure signals for assistance. In this paper, we study failure attribution from step-unlabeled failure trajectories, where each trajectory is known to have failed but its decisive step is unknown. We propose SOAP (Spectral scOring with Attention-guided Propagation), an effective framework requiring neither step-level training labels nor a separate success-only reference set. SOAP first constructs a spectral reference space from LLM representations and assigns each step a base error score according to its projection behavior. Importantly, later steps may exhibit stronger failure signals because they inherit an earlier mistake, causing independent scorers to favor downstream consequences over the decisive error. To address this downstream contamination, SOAP derives soft step dependencies from attention patterns and propagates downstream error evidence toward its likely upstream sources. Extensive experiments show that SOAP consistently improves attribution performance over competitive baselines.

Joint audio-video diffusion models generate synchronized content, but editing existing clips requires target changes without disrupting non-target structure or cross-modal correspondence. We present AV-FlowEdit, a training-free and inversion-free framework for prompt-driven audio-video editing. Our key insight is that source--target flow differences provide both cross-modal editing directions and preservation cues. Under shared perturbations, they jointly update the video and audio branches, supporting visual-only, audio-only, and joint edits while retaining pretrained cross-modal interactions. To suppress drift accumulated during sampling, Cross-Modal Event-Aware Spectral Trajectory Preservation combines flow saliency, aligned audio activity, multiscale low-frequency displacement, and diffusion-stage scheduling. This adaptively preserves unsupported regions while allowing intended audio-visual events. AV-FlowEdit requires no model training, external masks, or optimization-based inversion. Experiments show strong prompt alignment and temporal consistency, together with competitive audio quality and cross-modal coherence.

Trajectory extrapolation from a partial target trajectory is underdetermined, but completed related trajectories provide information about the unresolved continuation. We propose target-constrained pooling (TCP), which separates the finite-horizon endpoint from continuation shape and estimates that endpoint from two complementary source signals. Uniform pooling captures final response levels, while matched-increment pooling captures the remaining change after aligning source and target states. TCP selects representative sources, projects both endpoint estimates onto a target-consistent region, converts them into corrections of the free forecast, and controls their influence through strength calibration and degradation-aware weighting. Across 25,245 targets from five domains and both forecasting directions, TCP reduces mean RMSE by 35.8% to 42.1% for all ten target-only forecasters and improves all 100 forecaster, dataset, and direction comparisons. The two endpoint signals consistently outperform either alone, while representative selection remains within 0.64% to 1.02% of the full donor pool using 12.7x fewer donor inputs and 138.8x fewer matching distance computations.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a dominant paradigm for enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities. Yet long-horizon autoregressive rollouts introduce a fundamental limitation: local policy mismatch can compound into severe state distribution shift over trajectories. Existing LLM RL methods, such as GRPO and GSPO, control policy mismatch at the token or sequence level, but overlook this trajectory-induced shift, causing training instability and eventual collapse as the horizon grows. To close the state distribution gap, we propose Trajectory-Aware Policy Optimization (TAPO), a principled framework that theoretically derives the state-distribution correction from the off-policy policy gradient and incorporates it into the RL objective. TAPO further employs a geometric-mean estimator for variance reduction, together with a length-aware dynamic clipping that prevents overly deviated updates across the trajectory. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TAPO significantly surpasses existing LLM RL algorithms across eight competition-level benchmarks, achieving up to 48% and 12% improvement over GRPO on mathematical reasoning and algorithmic coding, with substantially enhanced training stability.

Flow-matching vision-language-action (VLA) models such as pi0 generate robot actions by integrating a learned denoising velocity field, and have been reported to resist adversarial perturbations that readily fool autoregressive VLAs. We show that this robustness is largely illusory: it stems from prior attacks ignoring the multi-step denoising ODE. We introduce DRIFT (Denoising Redirection via Input perturbation of the Flow-matching Trajectory), a test-time universal adversarial patch placed on the robot's gripper that attacks the denoising velocity field of an off-the-shelf policy. Our central finding is counterintuitive: attacking only the first denoising step is both stronger and cheaper than attacking a wider window of steps, which we explain through a gradient conflict unique to input-space optimization and which is exactly opposite to the training-time backdoor regime. On pi0 and pi0.5 across four LIBERO suites, DRIFT breaks essentially all originally-solvable tasks with a small single patch, far exceeding action- and embedding-space attack baselines.

We presented a program that automates the construction and solution of the cubic spline interpolation problem for a sequence of position-time waypoints, producing trajectories that are continuous in position, velocity, and acceleration and therefore avoid the infinite-acceleration problem inherent to piecewise-linear waypoint following. By assembling the interpolation and continuity conditions into a single linear system and solving directly for the spline coefficients, the program removes the need to manually derive per-segment equations for each new waypoint set. We illustrated the approach on free-form curve drawing and signature digitization, two tasks that use the same underlying machinery required for smooth robot and drone trajectory generation. Future work includes extending the implementation to multi-axis trajectories with explicit velocity and acceleration bounds, adopting the more computationally efficient tridiagonal solution method for larger waypoint sets, and evaluating the approach quantitatively against alternative trajectory generation methods.

Training large language models (LLMs) for multi-turn code generation typically relies on online reinforcement learning (RL), in which models learn from repeatedly generated online rollouts. Although effective, online RL can be costly and unstable. In this paper, we present contextual bandit learning with offline trajectories (COBALT), a simple method that reuses offline multi-turn trajectories to efficiently train LLMs for multi-turn code generation. Building on the observation that multi-turn code generation is a one-step recoverable Markov decision process, COBALT first collects code generation trajectories using a reference LLM and divides them into partial trajectories. Then, during online bandit learning, the LLM is trained to complete each partial trajectory through single-step code generation. On LiveCodeBench, COBALT substantially improves R1-Distill 8B and Qwen3 8B by up to 9.0 and 6.2 absolute Pass@1 points and matches the performance of two multi-turn online RL baselines using GRPO and VeRPO. We also perform a perturbation-based analysis of in-context reward hacking and show that Cobalt can improve robustness to misleading execution feedback. Overall, our results demonstrate that Cobalt is a promising solution for multi-turn code generation. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/OSU-NLP-Group/cobalt.

Ego-trajectory prediction in urban roadway work zones remains an underexplored topic in autonomous-driving research, with limited dedicated data and systematic evaluation. Roadway work zones involve temporary changes in the lane layouts and connectivity of the roads, complicating interactions with surrounding vehicles and workers. These changes make future vehicle trajectories difficult to predict. To address these challenges, we collect WZDrive-Data, a multimodal dataset comprising 1,183 work-zone driving segments from 33 drivers, using a human-in-the-loop driving simulator with prerecorded worker animations and VR-controlled workers. Driver control and gaze signals are recorded from human participants, while vehicle trajectories and scene information are obtained from the simulator. Our proposed multimodal ego-trajectory predictor, WZDrive, achieves a mean minADE (K=6) of 1.09 m and minFDE (K=6) of 2.12 m. Compared with the best-performing state-of-the-art baseline for each metric in our benchmark, WZDrive reduces minADE (K=6) by 7.18% and minFDE (K=6) by 13.18%. This research addresses a gap in autonomous-driving research on urban work zones by combining human-in-the-loop data collection with multimodal learning from human driving signals and in the context of work zones.

Non-prehensile manipulation with mobile robots has primarily targeted placement in coarse goal regions. Precision placement has been studied with manipulators on benchmarks such as Push-T, where an omnidirectional end effector can readily re-approach an object from any side. For a mobile robot, correcting the same placement errors may require wide repositioning maneuvers around the object. We formalize multi-object pushing with a mobile robot as a multi-target assignment problem at tight tolerances. We propose a diffusion planner with a causal factorization: each robot denoising step is followed by an object step conditioned on the current clean robot estimate. This factorization allows us to sample multiple object outcomes for a single robot plan, capturing the multi-modality of pushing. We also design a set of pushing-specific costs for mobile robots, used for both guidance and best-of-$N$ sampling at inference. On Push-T, our planner attains the highest success rate of the methods we compare, while having the lowest rate of implausible object motion. Across three multi-box pushing environments resembling warehouse scenarios, it raises the fraction of boxes placed by $21.5$ percentage points over an unguided baseline, and replans $1.8\times$ faster than a planner that denoises the two trajectories together. Lastly, we deploy the guided planner on a TurtleBot 3 Burger with object shapes absent from the training data, where it places $85.0%$ of objects within tolerance against Diffusion Policy's $37.5%$.

Diffusion models can represent complex, multimodal trajectory distributions, but extracting uncertainty from them typically requires costly Monte Carlo sampling. This limits their use in real-time control, where robots must rapidly assess risk and maintain safety margins. We introduce Score-Curvature for Online Precision Estimation (SCOPE), a lightweight module that augments diffusion trajectory models with control-ready uncertainty. SCOPE learns a structured precision matrix around each nominal trajectory by distilling score-curvature information and producing calibrated Gaussian tubes with low overhead and without repeated Monte Carlo sampling. These tubes provide per-timestep covariance estimates that can be used both as predicted occupancy for moving agents and as adaptive exploration guides for robot control. We evaluate SCOPE with mode-conditioned multimodal diffusion backbones in pedestrian forecasting, crowd navigation, Maze2D control, and real-world Franka Panda manipulation. Across these settings, SCOPE provides fast uncertainty estimation, which leads to better closed-loop performance. Project page: https://zackaxue.github.io/SCOPE-project-page/

Accepted at the Conference on Robot Learning (CoRL) 2026 as a Spotlight presentation. 39 pages, 12 figures

Agents are deployed in applications from trip planners and stock trading to IT incident triage. In most cases, LLM agents work autonomously with minimal rule-based safeguarding, leading to cost and safety issues from irreversible actions. Recent works resolve this either by using a safeguard agent to monitor behavior or evaluating logs post-hoc. The first adds cost and latency to every step; the second delivers its verdict after the run, when tokens are burned and damage is done. To overcome this, we propose OnTrack, a streaming monitoring mechanism that compares an agent's steps and dependencies against recorded successful runs to alert users or block the agent in about a millisecond per step. We study this problem in three regimes of decreasing access: full reference access (historical runs and tool schemas), intermediate access (only tool schemas), and no prior knowledge (only step logs as generated). Expectation of OnTrack's monitoring capabilities reduces as data access drops, ranging from plan violation detection to identifying loops, stalls, and repeated tool calls. Finally, we evaluate OnTrack using SWE-bench trajectories. Based on the first 8 steps, our method ranks failing trajectories below succeeding ones better than content similarity approaches (+0.057 AUROC). With an abort policy, we save about 18% of compute that would be burned on failing runs, where 83% of interrupted runs were actually heading to failure (5 out of 6 aborts were correct).

Microscopic robots require accurate task geometry despite changes in language, parts, and focus. We present a semantic-to-physical framework that maps instructions to constrained geometric operators, reuses frozen open-vocabulary perception, and integrates locally reliable focal-plane trajectories by confidence weighting and dynamic programming. Calibrated multi-view geometry connects 2-D paths to physical execution. Prompt, unseen-part, and geometry reconfiguration tests yield 6.30-6.59-pixel RMSE. Relative to part-specific U-Net training with 20-100 labels, the proposed zero-new-label configuration takes 15 rather than 72-165 min. Across nine part-illumination conditions, trajectory-space integration reduces RMSE from 14.41 to 6.28 pixels (56.4%) and P95 error from 20.07 to 8.13 pixels (59.5%) compared with image-first multi-focus fusion. An ablation isolates the roles of confidence and path-wise selection. In representative robot experiments, target-region coverage improves from 83.5% to 92.9%. Dispensing provides a measurable physical trace, not a task-specific limitation of the method.

Preliminary low-thrust spacecraft mission design is a global search problem characterized by a complex solution landscape, multiple objectives, and numerous local minima. During this phase, mission parameters are often not yet fully defined, requiring new solutions to be generated at a high cadence across varying parameter values. When combined with the indirect approach to optimal control, diffusion models can accelerate this search by learning distributions that represent high-quality initial costates. However, generating training data remains expensive, and opportunities exist to better exploit past data. We propose a transfer-learning framework that combines homotopy in a mission parameter with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to generate training data more efficiently. The approach reformulates a multiobjective optimization problem as sampling from an unnormalized target distribution in costate space. We compare three MCMC algorithms on a planar multi-revolution transfer in the circular restricted three-body problem, with homotopy in the system mass parameter. The results show that gradient-based MCMC variants achieve the best trade-off between sample quality and computational cost. For the test transfer, the proposed framework generates 40 % more feasible solutions and achieves a higher-quality Pareto front than a state-of-the-art indirect approach based on adjoint control transformations and gradient-based optimization. Finally, the MCMC-generated samples are used to fine-tune a diffusion model conditioned on the mass parameter, enabling it to learn a global representation of the underlying solution distribution and efficiently generate new solutions. These findings establish the transfer-learning framework as a practical method for efficiently solving indirect trajectory optimization problems with varying parameters.

v2: Updated publication information only; manuscript content is unchanged. The version of record is available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s40295-026-00630-x

Agent skills provide reusable guidance for code agents, but incomplete or unsuitable guidance can impair task execution. To reduce the manual effort of skill refinement, recent approaches use LLMs to generate revisions from execution feedback. However, grounding these revisions in explicit behavioral evidence remains challenging. To address this gap, we propose SkillMorph, a skill-evolution approach based on trajectory-guided fault localization in agent skills. Its core idea is to link execution evidence to specific skill contents before generating revisions. Specifically, SkillMorph compares failure and success evidence in abstracted trajectories across repeated runs and tasks, incorporating changes between evolution loops to identify suspicious actions. It then uses these suspicious actions to localize edit sites in the skills and generate corresponding revisions. Experiments on SWE-Skills-Bench and CannBot show that the skills evolved by SkillMorph consistently achieve higher trial-level accuracy and execution consistency than the original skills and those from four existing skill-evolution methods. We have also applied SkillMorph to automated kernel generation with an AI operator-development team, which has accepted 6 skill-revision pull requests.

AI-Native video creation is shifting from isolated video clips toward iterative video creation workflows. However, existing datasets remain largely video clips, representing video generation and editing as separate tasks rather than connected stages of a video creation workflow. In this paper, we introduce Sora100K, a dataset that represents the AI-Native video creation workflow as a structured video creation trajectory. Specifically, we first identify video creation trajectories and decompose them into three subsets according to their structural roles: text-to-video generation records as roots, single-turn video editing records as editing edges, and multi-turn video editing records as complete trajectories. Then, we use a VLM to assign semantic annotations for generation roots and editing-operation annotations for editing edges. A strict construction pipeline further reconstructs source-to-edit lineage, editing order, and intermediate video states while ensuring data quality. Finally, we perform lightweight adaptation on LTX-2 models to assess the supervision value of Sora100K. The results show improvements in visual quality, multi-shot generation, and cross-shot consistency, while successive-turn evaluation reveals that following multi-turn editing instructions remains challenging. Sora100K establishes a new data foundation for AI-Native video creation beyond isolated video clips and toward structured video creation trajectory. The dataset and supplementary materials are publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ysicong/Sora100K.

Crowd trajectory prediction plays a crucial role in public safety and management, where it can help prevent disasters such as stampedes. Recent works address the problem by predicting individual trajectories and considering surrounding objects based on manually annotated data. However, these approaches tend to overlook dense crowd scenarios, where the challenges of automation become more pronounced due to the massiveness, noisiness, and inaccuracy of the tracking outputs, resulting in high computational costs. To address these challenges, we propose and extensively evaluate a novel cluster-based approach that groups individuals based on similar attributes over time, enabling faster execution through accurate group summarisation. Our plug-and-play method can be combined with existing trajectory predictors by using our output centroid in place of their pedestrian input. We evaluate our proposed method on several challenging dense crowd scenes. We demonstrated that our approach leads to faster processing and lower memory usage when compared with state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining the accuracy

Accurate trajectory forecasting and well-defined predictive uncertainty are crucial for reliable, safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. Most trajectory prediction approaches provide point estimates only, while uncertainty-aware approaches typically quantify uncertainty only in the trajectory space. In physics-aware approaches, uncertainty in the predicted motion variables should be explicitly modeled and propagated through the vehicle dynamics. Otherwise, the resulting trajectory-space uncertainty may not fully reflect the variability introduced by the underlying motion prediction. Therefore, in this work, uncertainty-aware extensions of X-TRACK (X-TRACK-DE and X-TRACK-MCD), a physics-aware trajectory prediction framework, are proposed. The proposed framework predicts future vehicle motion variables and models both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties by propagating motion space uncertainty to trajectory space. Additionally, conformal prediction is applied to the trajectory space predictive covariance to construct uncertainty regions targeting a desired marginal coverage level. Evaluation on the highD dataset shows that X-TRACK-DE improves trajectory prediction accuracy over the deterministic baseline, while both uncertainty-aware variants provide predictive uncertainty that can be conformally calibrated to the desired marginal coverage level.

Online agent deployments accumulate execution trajectories at massive scale and behavioral diversity, for which predefined annotation criteria hardly exist. Extracting useful evidence therefore demands costly manual annotation or verifier signals that fail to scale, leaving valuable evidence buried among redundant, incomplete, and failed executions. This raises a question: without post-execution rewards or correctness labels, how can reusable experience be distilled from the trajectories themselves? To address this challenge, we introduce DENSE (Distilling Evidence from Nested Subtask Executions), which organizes trajectory-derived evidence into nested shortcut trees. By consolidating redundant attempts, identifying resolved subtasks, and retaining useful steps alongside outstanding requirements, DENSE transforms noisy execution traces into structured and reusable task-solving feedback. To evaluate whether such feedback helps agents retry the same task, we design REFIT, which measures success-rate changes between the initial attempt and feedback-guided retries. Among feedback methods without external outcome supervision, DENSE achieves the highest strict pass rate across four agent models on Terminal-Bench 2.1, improving over initial attempts by 7.12-21.81 percentage points with 19.0-43.6% fewer agent tokens on retries. In addition, on hard tasks DENSE consistently outperforms self-reflection in cumulative pass rate across multiple feedback iterations on all four models, demonstrating its strong potential for continual agent self-improvement.

43 pages, including appendices

Video diffusion and flow models require many sequential evaluations, making generation computationally expensive. Few-step distillation reduces this cost but poses a capacity allocation problem: a student must match the teacher's iterative generation with far less sequential computation. Existing trajectory methods ask the student to reproduce teacher transitions that are highly curved at high noise, which can exceed its capacity and degrade fine detail. We introduce Parametric Trajectory Distillation (PTD), which lets the student parameterize teacher trajectory segments as polynomials and learn from teacher guidance along its own predicted path. PTD is designed to let the learned curvature adapt to the backbone's predictive capacity, preserving motion and diversity. The curvature head is used only in training; inference keeps the original backbone architecture. On Wan2.1-14B, four-step PTD sets a new state of the art for trajectory distillation, significantly improving dynamic quality and naturalness over PDD, the best-performing trajectory-only method on this model, under the same training setting. On the 33B audio-video MiniMax-H3, LoRA-trained PTD significantly improves diversity and naturalness over the state-of-the-art LightX2V Turbo. Blinded human votes give PTD 55.1% and 63.4% preference shares against PDD and LightX2V Turbo. Project page: https://alan-lanfeng.github.io/PTD/.

Single-cell snapshot data can resolve a continuum of cellular states but do not uniquely determine the dynamics governing transitions between them. However, additional dynamical information can often be encoded in a cell-cell Markov transition kernel. Existing generative approaches for single cell trajectory inference either infer transport only from population marginals, impose a symmetric geometry on the state space, or incorporate directionality through a single velocity vector at each observed state. We introduce Finsler Flow Matching (FFM), a framework for learning continuous stochastic dynamics from discrete Markov transition graphs. We use the first and second local moments to construct a Finsler structure motivated by the Freidlin--Wentzell action, where the second moment determines anisotropic accessibility and the first moment introduces a preferred direction of motion. We learn neural approximations of the resulting directed geodesics, use their Finsler cost to construct source-target couplings, and define geometry-aware stochastic conditional paths that can be distilled into a continuous generative process through simulation-free score and flow matching. Across synthetic and single-cell trajectory inference benchmarks, FFM improves recovery of withheld intermediate populations, particularly when the transition dynamics are strongly directional or anisotropic. Our results provide a principled route from discrete transition probabilities to continuous generative dynamics while retaining both directional and diffusive structure.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in image generation, yet tracing their outputs to individual training examples remains challenging. Existing attribution methods often compress factor-specific effects into scalar responses, making distinct internal changes indistinguishable. This is particularly limiting for diffusion models, where semantic factors emerge through evolving representation dynamics during denoising. We therefore reformulate diffusion data attribution as attributing factor-induced internal response trajectories. In this paper, we propose a novel Concept Attribution method through Dynamic Trajectories(CADT). We argue that attribution should therefore ask not only \emph{which} examples matter, but also \emph{how} their influence unfolds during generation. Specifically, we construct matched counterfactual pairs at identical noisy states to isolate factor-specific representation displacements, and model their directional and magnitude evolution across denoising as dynamic attribution signatures. For each training example and generated query, CADT extracts stage-wise feature vectors and integrates them along the denoising process to form a trajectory descriptor. Applying the same construction across the training set yields a bank of factor-specific trajectory descriptors. The covariance statistics of this bank are then used to construct . CADT uses this covariance-aware positive-semidefinite kernel to calibrate the query and training representations, and compares the calibrated query trajectory with each training trajectory to produce the final training-sample attribution scores. Experiments on multiple public datasets show consistent improvements over existing diffusion attribution baselines across hierarchical, compositional, and style attribution.

Clinical diagnosis is inherently sequential: clinicians escalate from cheap to costly tests only when additional evidence is expected to resolve diagnostic uncertainty. We present ActiveMedAgent, a framework that brings this cost-aware sequential logic to multimodal medical AI. Given a frozen, API-accessed vision-language model, ActiveMedAgent tracks probability distributions over candidate diagnoses and scores each acquisition by its per-step diagnostic utility minus cost. A lightweight MLP controller is then trained offline on these scored trajectories, learning when to request additional evidence and when to commit. Across three commonly used benchmarks, trajectory-based policy learning consistently outperforms both unguided acquisition and full-modality baselines. Notably, we identify an information overload effect. In 175 cases, the agent produces a correct diagnosis with fewer channels while the full-modality baseline fails, showing that learning what to omit can be as important as learning what to acquire.

A verified reference solution provides a correct trajectory for training a reasoning model. Alternatively, a prefix of the reference can guide the model in generating a trajectory of its own. How much reference guidance should we provide? We study this question through prefix continuation, where the model continues from a reference prefix and keeps the resulting trajectory if it passes verification, falling back to the reference otherwise. Since both procedures produce correct trajectories, we compare their distributions with the ideal distribution, the model's own distribution conditioned on successful verification. For one continuation, we derive the KL divergence in closed form, which, up to a bounded term, decreases with the product of the probability of generating a different correct trajectory and the reference surprisal, the negative log probability of the reference suffix given the prefix. Since a longer prefix tends to raise the former but lowers the latter, continuation success alone does not determine the preferred amount of guidance. From this analysis, we learn a prefix selector shared across training questions from continuation outcomes, without estimating success probabilities or additional generation. The resulting Adaptive Reference Guidance (ARG) constructs correct trajectories within a fixed generation budget, and we apply it to all-failure groups in Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Experiments on Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that ARG achieves the highest aggregate pass@12 among the evaluated methods with competitive average sampled accuracy.

Generating high-quality and controllable camera motion is essential for AI-assisted cinematography, video synthesis, and 3D scene understanding. We introduce TKCAM, a Text- and Keyframe-conditioned CAMera-motion synthesis framework based on generative masked modeling. We represent camera dynamics using a 12-dimensional kinematic feature comprising position, velocity, and a continuous rotation representation and discretize them into hierarchical motion tokens via a Residual Vector Quantizer (RVQ). A two-stage masked transformer architecture then learns to reconstruct and refine these tokens, utilizing explicit self- and cross-attention modules for multimodal conditioning. A central feature of our framework is sparse visual keyframe conditioning: users can provide free-form text prompts together with RGB observations at selected timestamps, which provide temporally localized visual guidance for generating coherent in-between trajectories. Furthermore, to advance evaluation standards, we curate RealEstate10K-Cap, a large-scale text-camera dataset, and establish a cross-domain benchmark with a Universal CLaTr Evaluator. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TKCAM surpasses recent state-of-the-art baselines on Fréchet distance (FID), text-motion matching scores, and retrieval metrics (R@K), while additional analyses evaluate temporal smoothness and cross-domain generalization. Code is available at https://github.com/linearalgebrayhz/TKCAM.

20 pages, 7 figures. Paper accepted to NeurIPS2026 (submission number 15461)

Offline multi-task reinforcement learning (Offline MTRL) heavily depends on the quality and distribution of pre-collected data. However, existing methods mainly focus on algorithmic optimization, with less emphasis on data-level improvements to enhance learning ability and generalization performance. This paper, from a data perspective, reveals three key bottlenecks that limit Offline MTRL performance:(i) ineffective utilization of prompts length under diverse task complexities, and (ii) semantic irrelevance of randomly sampled prompt segments, (iii) misleading supervision induced by fragmented and discontinuous trajectories. To address these challenges, we propose DaCe-DT, a robust offline MTRL framework designed to be insensitive to heterogeneous task complexities and data quality, featuring length-gated prompt masking (LGPM), retrieval-augmented prompt construction (RAPC), and value-adaptive return calibration (VARC). Together, these mechanisms enable DaCe-DT to deliver data-centric prompt adaptation and trajectory refinement, resulting in robust multi-task generalization and stable policy learning amid heterogeneous offline data and tasks. Experimental results on Meta-World show that DaCe-DT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving an average improvement of 11.73% on optimal datasets and an improvement of 13.34% on suboptimal datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness in learning stably from imperfect data and improving overall multi-task performance.

25 pages,NeurIPS-2026

Sampling-based system identification estimates physically meaningful parameters by tuning a simulator to reproduce the target system dynamics, providing an interpretable approach to improving sim-to-real transfer. Yet when the collected trajectories do not distinguish the effects of different parameters, multiple parameter combinations can reproduce those trajectories, leading to unreliable parameter estimates. To address this challenge, we introduce an Informationally Decoupled Trajectory Design framework (IDTD), which formulates the objective for the exploration policy built on the Schur complement score derived from the Fisher information matrix. To faithfully reflect parameter separability in the exploration objective, IDTD normalizes the score against the per-parameter information, selects the most favorable trajectory segment for each parameter, and aggregates the resulting scores logarithmically. The optimized trajectory is therefore composed of complementary intervals, each exposing a distinct subset of parameters whose contribution to the motion over that interval can be attributed unambiguously. Across diverse simulation environments, ranging from a linear-dynamics system to the Go2 quadruped, G1 humanoid, and Crazyflie quadrotor, IDTD reduces the parameter identification error by 39.6% on average relative to the strongest prior active-exploration baseline and attains improved downstream policy transfer. Furthermore, we validate the proposed trajectory design on a real K1 humanoid, demonstrating that the resulting identified parameters accurately capture the real-system dynamics.

Gradient-based jailbreak suffix optimization methods typically update the suffix by retaining the candidate with the lowest current loss. We show that this seemingly natural design is fundamentally myopic: candidates that look better under the current-step proxy often fail to produce better jailbreak outcomes later in the search, revealing a form of selection-stage reward hacking. This suggests that candidate selection, rather than candidate generation alone, is a hidden bottleneck in suffix optimization. To address this issue, we propose TACS, a trajectory-aware candidate selection framework for jailbreak suffix optimization. Instead of selecting candidates solely by their immediate loss, TACS augments per-step evaluation with a trajectory-aware proxy and stabilizes selection with reference-policy regularization and a discriminator-estimated chi-squared correction, encouraging choices that remain effective beyond the current step. Experiments on HarmBench show that TACS consistently outperforms strong baselines under the same search budget, substantially improving attack success rates while exhibiting more stable optimization behavior throughout the search. Our findings highlight that mitigating selection-stage reward hacking caused by myopic candidate selection is critical for improving jailbreak suffix optimization.

We identified an error in the theoretical analysis, which affects the validity of the main conclusions of the manuscript. Since the current version does not adequately support this conclusion, we have decided to withdraw the paper

Learning from trajectory demonstrations offers a route to active-inference control of complex systems whose dynamics are difficult to model explicitly. We introduce generative active-inference control (GenAIF), in which one generative trajectory model learns from demonstrations and measured action interventions to supply a goal-conditioned policy distribution and a state-to-observation likelihood mapping. From this control design, we derive three model requirements: (i) useful action proposals, (ii) accurate prediction under imposed actions, and (iii) probabilistic observation evidence for belief updating and expected information gain. We benchmark diffusion, autoregressive Transformers, conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs), and flow matching in a MuJoCo manipulation task with multiple physical conditions. Diffusion delivers the strongest control across the tested dynamics, while CVAE combines comparable short-horizon prediction with much faster inference. Correct conditioning is decisive, and trajectory reuse offers further computational savings. In replay after an unannounced tilt change, pretrained diffusion updates belief fastest among the original models; fine-tuning on recovery demonstrations further accelerates identification and sustains accurate tracking. These findings support the use of shared generative trajectory models to connect action proposal, controlled prediction, and observation evidence within GenAIF.

Accepted at the 7th International Workshop on Active Inference (IWAI 2026). Code: https://github.com/lyeeonardo/generative-trajectory-benchmark

Multi-turn user-facing agents must infer user intent from incomplete requests, collect missing information through dialogue and tools, and execute valid actions. A training trajectory records this process as an interleaved sequence of user messages, agent responses, tool calls, etc. Synthesizing sufficiently complex trajectory has become a central route to train agents: existing pipelines often increase difficulty by composing multiple user requests into longer tasks, producing write-intensive trajectories that train sequential execution. We argue that a single write decision can itself be difficult when the agent must gather and compare substantial read-tool evidence before its arguments become identifiable, a challenge that write-intensive data alone cannot address. Guided by this insight, we propose WRIT (\uline{W}rite-\uline{R}ead \uline{I}ntensive \uline{T}rajectory Synthesis), a pipeline for synthesizing multi-turn agent training trajectories along two complexity axes: the number of write decisions in a task and the evidence burden of each individual decision. WRIT first generates write-intensive and read-heavy tasks. It then diversifies user behavior instructions to reflect realistic conversational variation, and finally simulates agent-user interactions in an executable environment to produce complete training trajectories. The resulting data trains agents not only for longer task execution, but also for robust, evidence-grounded decision making under high information load. With only 2K synthesized trajectories, a 4B model trained on WRIT outperforms GPT-5.1 no-think on $τ^2$-bench and substantially reduces inference-time token usage, showing that compact SFT data can convert part of expensive test-time reasoning into efficient agent behavior.

EMNLP 2026 Main Conference

Aerial vision-and-language navigation (VLN) agents are typically trained on detail-rich, trajectory-aligned commands, whereas users issue short, intent-driven instructions; on a frozen OpenFly navigator, this \emph{instruction gap} drops success rate (SR) from $31.03%$ to $11.33%$. To scale translator training, we prompt a language model with human-written style examples to convert original commands into paired, intent-centered Weak commands, which yield $15.27%$ SR. We introduce the \textbf{Trajectory-Grounded Instruction Translator (TGIT)}, a front-end that keeps the navigator frozen and translates Weak inputs into agent-executable commands by learning from its trajectory outcomes. The resulting Weak-trained translator raises Weak-input SR to $37.93%$ and transfers zero-shot to real human instructions ($11.33%{\rightarrow}32.51%$); it also improves held-out OpenFly ($4.95%{\rightarrow}20.79%$) and yields recovery on CityNav and AirVLN.

Models with near-identical predictive performance can yield substantially different predictions, a phenomenon known as predictive multiplicity. Prior work has mostly studied this at the level of individual scalar outputs. In time-series forecasting, however, predictions across horizons jointly define a trajectory, and horizon-wise comparisons can hide important differences in predictive behavior. To address this problem, we introduce temporal predictive multiplicity, a framework that characterizes disagreement over complete forecast trajectories among models with near-identical predictive performance. We show that constraining predictive performance alone can still admit a broad range of different trajectories. We further show that constraining multiplicity at individual horizons partially reduces, but does not eliminate, trajectory-level multiplicity. Experiments with 19 neural forecasting architectures on 11 datasets confirm that near-optimal models can exhibit substantial variability in the forecast trajectories they produce, and trajectory-level disagreement is largely unrelated to horizon-wise disagreement. Our framework, therefore, exposes a gap in existing multiplicity studies: models with indistinguishable predictive performance imply fundamentally different temporal trajectories, with consequential downstream effects.

Surgical video generation holds substantial potential for surgical education, simulation, and data augmentation, yet generating surgical videos with realistic and clinically plausible motion remains challenging. Most existing methods rely on auxiliary conditions, such as masks, trajectories, depth, or reference videos, to achieve visually plausible synthesis. Yet, these auxiliary conditions typically require additional manual annotation or specialized acquisition, making it difficult to scale such methods beyond small, curated datasets. This motivates the need for a reference-free architecture capable of generating high-quality surgical video without requiring auxiliary visual conditions at inference time. We propose FLAIR, a Flow-guided LatentAction Injection framework for Reference-free surgical video generation. FLAIR learns action priors from optical flow of real surgical videos, dynamically predicts corresponding latent action representation from an input prompt, and injects it into a frozen base model to generate surgical videos with improved action consistency. We further construct SurgActionClip-30K, the first large-scale surgical vision dataset comprising action-centric segmented clips and structured caption labels, addressing the persistent lack of fine-grained, action-centric surgical datasets. Lastly, we introduce SurgMetrics, the first surgical domain-specific evaluation metrics for quantifying the quality of generated surgical videos, addressing the persistent absence of clinically grounded evaluation standards in this domain. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FLAIR enables generating high-quality surgical videos using text-only inference without auxiliary conditions, and validation in SurgMetrics demonstrates its strength in alignment with human perception compared to traditional metrics.

Wavelet-based financial forecasters typically use the transform only to denoise, or reduce it to a single spectral snapshot at the forecast origin, and the convolution that produces the coefficients is usually bilateral, so it can read past the forecast origin. DSTNet instead retains the recent evolution of filter-bank magnitudes as a causal Dynamic Spectral Trajectory, built from seven trailing technical indicators over a twenty-day lookback with a one-sided Morlet-derived filter bank and an explicit burn-in for the left-boundary transient. A factorized Scale-Temporal Spectral Transformer attends along the time and filter-bank axes separately, a learned gate fuses the spectral branch with a CNN-BiLSTM, and horizon-specific gates emit one, three, five, and ten day forecasts in a single pass. We evaluate seven equity indices and gold under a common expanding-window protocol and an untouched one-year hold-out, against nine learned baselines and a random-walk persistence benchmark. Under MAE and MAPE, persistence is the strongest of the ten fixed competitors in 29 of the 32 series-horizon cells and DSTNet is the only model below it in every cell, by 0.7 to 0.9 percent at one day and 3.4 to 4.5 percent at ten days. At one day, paired testing favours DSTNet against the weaker learned baselines but is inconclusive against persistence and the strongest learned forecasters. A downstream allocation diagnostic does not support an equity-timing advantage on any of the seven indices.

27 Pages, 8 figures, 19 tables, Paper in Review

Indoor positioning systems (IPSs) are increasingly vital for location-based services in complex multi-storey environments. This study proposes a novel graph-based approach for floor separation using Wi-Fi fingerprint trajectories, addressing the challenge of vertical localization in indoor settings. We construct a graph where nodes represent Wi-Fi fingerprints, and edges are weighted by signal similarity and contextual transitions. Node2Vec is employed to generate low-dimensional embeddings, which are subsequently clustered using K-means to identify distinct floors. Evaluated on the Huawei University Challenge 2021 dataset, our method outperforms traditional community detection algorithms, achieving an accuracy of 68.97%, an F1- score of 61.99%, and an Adjusted Rand Index of 57.19%. By publicly releasing the preprocessed dataset and implementation code, this work contributes to advancing research in indoor positioning. The proposed approach demonstrates robustness to signal noise and architectural complexities, offering a scalable solution for floor-level localization.

Version 2 is re-uploaded to replace the withdrawn Version 3 and to appear as the active version of the paper

Trajectory optimisation for cone-beam computed tomography (CT) determines which information sparse-view scans acquire. Fixed candidate pools prevent off-grid refinement and require new object-specific precomputation for each acquisition manifold. We make every source pose an individual continuous variable and move all poses jointly by gradient ascent on the scanner's kinematic manifold. The objective combines soft-Tuy plane coverage, continuous View Covariance Loss, and an analytic attenuation-aware ray-bundle penalty. The same optimiser handles circular, limited C-arm, two-axis, and freesphere parametrisations. On a Defrise flange, continuous selection recovers laminar defects invisible to a circular orbit, matches discrete swap search on the free sphere at the sparser budget, and leads at the denser one, with the same objective evaluated in every arm. A moderate elevation band already recovers most of the free-sphere gain at the defects, so the same optimiser transfers to bounded scanner envelopes. Photon noise preserves the ordering on the flange and compresses it on a dense fuel nozzle. Sparseprescan planning benefits from matching prescan and planned acquisition manifolds. Selection takes seconds rather than minutes without an object-specific reconstruction basis. Prescan-planned poses were executed on a robot CT bench and reconstructed in a common frame, demonstrating feasibility but no consistent metric gain over uniform band sampling. Continuous pose optimisation incorporates attenuation and scanner constraints directly into sparse-view acquisition design.

Camera trajectories control viewpoint changes in video generation, scene reconstruction, and robotic perception. Generating them from language requires both scene geometry and target-aware framing. We introduce OmniCam, an autoregressive model that generates camera pose sequences from a single panorama and textual trajectory descriptions. Its geometry-grounded pose token learning combines three components: a panoramic point-cloud encoder for omnidirectional geometric context; hybrid absolute-rotation and relative-translation tokenization with temporally consistent quaternion signs; and separate geometric and semantic conditioning streams with an explicit 3D target anchor. We also construct OmniCaT, containing 267,700 trajectories across four camera behaviors. On the reported OmniCaT evaluation, OmniCam reduces trajectory errors by 28--47% and collision rate by 65.8% relative to GenDoP retrained on OmniCaT. Against the best baseline for each metric, the ATE and collision reductions are 43.0% and 62.3%, respectively. Component ablations support the use of geometric and target-aware conditioning, while downstream experiments examine camera-controlled video generation and robotic active perception.

A retrieval-augmented model can match a document without relying on it. Controlled knowledge conflicts make source choice observable and let us ask a second question that prediction alone cannot answer: which internal-state properties define useful intervention directions? We study paired hidden-state changes with Latent Trajectory Shift (LTS), a signed projection onto a training-fitted first principal component (PC1), and keep verified training exposure separate from behavioral source choice. Across the evaluated conflicts, state-change magnitude is often the stronger predictor, whereas signed PC1 is the stronger selective controller: equal-norm interventions change source preference while better preserving non-target behavior, and the frozen direction transfers across the tested datasets and aligned model pairs. A same-system OLMo study further combines positive choice and control results with inconclusive exposure detection at the achieved power. The central result is a separation: representations that diagnose what a model will choose need not be the representations that best control that choice.

Attention routing requires a signal that predicts the value of attention on the current prefix. We evaluate whether hidden-state extrapolation error, curvature and error change improve this prediction beyond uncertainty, one-step displacement, position and state projections. Paired executions of the final attention layer supply signed next-token loss differences in frozen SmolLM3-3B-Base and Qwen3.5-4B-Base checkpoints. Utility-supervised routers are tested on 100 held-out PG-19 books at an identical causal 20 percent invocation quota. None of six prespecified comparisons shows a positive gain after familywise correction. In Qwen3.5, a parameter-matched fixed-projection control lowers NLL by 0.00356 nats/token relative to the trajectory router (95 percent interval 0.00218 to 0.00487). Secondary results depend on the operation removed, feature location and scoring horizon; frozen thresholds also drift substantially at longer horizons. Actual selected-query execution yields small long-sequence latency reductions with increased NLL, while learned routers remain slower during cached continuation. The study identifies limits on the incremental value of these trajectory summaries and separates allocation quality from measured inference benefit.

Scientific studies of language agents need behavioral variables that support hypotheses across tasks and models. We formulate this research problem as learning and testing a hierarchy of trajectory abstractions. A concrete recursive procedure first measures role- and phase-indexed events, proposes temporally constrained relations, and tests their stability across conditions. It then constructs episode-level motif variables from selected relations and repeats the analysis on those variables. Explicit measurement functions connect every abstraction level to the original trajectories. Observations and randomized protocol experiments assess the resulting hypotheses, while comparisons between intervention realizations determine whether an abstraction should be retained, refined, or restricted. We derive a finite-depth bound for accepted reductions, identify protocol effects on fixed abstractions, and characterize realization disagreement and composition of abstraction error. A finite-sample test makes projected intervention consistency operational, and constructed examples illustrate motif construction and abstraction refinement. The formulation distinguishes this experimental approach from semantic taxonomies, qualitative theory induction, and behavior-model recovery. It specifies a proposed research procedure for discovering generalizable behavioral hypotheses, with literature-relative novelty assessed separately from model-relative surprise.

(Work in Progress) 13 pages, 2 figures

Reliable and interpretable trajectory prediction is critical for cooperative and autonomous driving in complex and uncertain environments. This paper introduces a Context-Aware Attention-based Gaussian Mixture Model (CAA-GMM) for multimodal, uncertainty-aware motion forecasting. The proposed approach models future motion as a probabilistic mixture conditioned on both scene context and agent dynamics, capturing diverse behavioral modes with interpretable Gaussian components. A lightweight attention mechanism adaptively encodes inter-agent interactions and contextual salience, enabling efficient fusion of rasterized environment cues and motion history in dense traffic scenes. Comprehensive evaluations on the nuScenes and Argoverse 2 datasets demonstrate that CAA-GMM achieves competitive or superior accuracy compared with state-of-the-art raster-based baselines, while maintaining low computational complexity. Ablation analyses confirm the importance of the attention module for robust contextual reasoning and predictive precision. Furthermore, evaluations under imperfect communication and perception conditions highlight the framework's resilience to uncertainty, establishing CAA-GMM as an efficient and scalable solution for cooperative trajectory prediction in intelligent transportation systems.

6 pages, 3 figures. Presented at the 2026 IEEE 104th Vehicular Technology Conference (VTC2026-Fall), Boston, MA, USA, 6-9 September 2026

Emerging long-horizon agentic tasks require repeated model calls, worsening the inference cost of already-costly language models. While narrow agentic tasks suggest potential for aggressive model pruning without performance drop, empirical results show existing methods proposed for question answering tasks severely degrade task performance when applied to agentic models. We trace this failure to two decisions: what to prune and how to recover. For pruning, one-shot importance estimates fail to track how the pruned model adapts. For recovery, offline distillation covers only teacher prefixes, while full-trajectory on-policy distillation causes student errors to compound across turns. In this work, we propose Trajectory-Anchored Pruning (TAP), the first structural pruning framework for reinforcement learning (RL)-trained agents. TAP couples structural pruning with efficient on-policy recovery, anchoring interactions to teacher trajectories while allowing the student to generate each reasoning-action response. A frozen dense teacher supervises the student's response prefixes, addressing within-response training-inference mismatch while preventing student-induced deviations from propagating across training turns. Instead of one-shot pruning, TAP re-scores channels using gradients of the recovery objective on the recovered student, connecting iterative channel selection to the evolving policy. With 60% of FFN channels removed, TAP retains 99.2% and 88.0% of the dense 7B agents' task success rates on ALFWorld and WebShop, respectively, while reducing GPU time per successful task by approximately 22% and 17%. These results demonstrate effective structural compression of long-horizon agents under a limited recovery budget.

Trajectory optimization (TO) under nonlinear dynamics, actuation limits and collision avoidance constraints is a fundamental problem in robotics, albeit especially challenging due to its highly non-convex nature. For this setting, Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) is an efficient second-order shooting method, yet its local structure renders it vulnerable to suboptimal basins. Sampling-augmented variants mitigate this susceptibility through stochastic exploration, but often sample only around the few trajectories they retain for reoptimization, based solely on their cost which restricts exploration breadth. We introduce Pareto-Optimal Entropy-Regularized DDP (PER-DDP), an entropy-regularized population framework derived from the free-energy/relative-entropy inequality. Our method combines prior-guided sampling that shapes exploration around each retained trajectory, with expanded rollout evaluations that probe these sampling policies beyond the few retained candidates, and Pareto filtering for preserving task-constraint alternatives across iterations. This decouples sampling effort from the optimization population size and broadens exploration without sacrificing the second-order structure that makes DDP effective. Across multiple systems and hundreds of environments, PER-DDP achieves higher success rates than state-of-the-art sampling-augmented TO methods and finds reliable solutions in environments beyond the reach of all baselines.

Language-based trajectory predictors represent coordinates as discrete tokens and learn auxiliary tasks such as destination and group reasoning. This formulation enables the model to capture behavioral intent and social context beyond coordinate dynamics alone. However, token-level objectives provide only indirect guidance for continuous coordinate-space dynamics. To address this limitation, we introduce MoRE (Mixture of Reward Experts), a refinement framework that transfers numerical forecasting priors into a pretrained language-based predictor through reinforcement learning. Five frozen numerical predictors provide complementary coordinate-level knowledge of motion and interactions. Their predictions are converted into expert rewards and combined through an uncertainty-weighted consensus that penalizes disagreement. A ground-truth reward anchors the prediction to the target trajectory. To focus refinement on difficult cases, MoRE refines the policy using the top 1% of training samples ranked by predictive entropy. Expert predictions are computed once and cached before PPO training, so the experts are not run during policy updates or inference. In this way, MoRE combines the contextual modeling of the language-based predictor with coordinate-level feedback from numerical experts. On ETH-UCY, MoRE reduces ADE from 0.22 to 0.20 m and FDE from 0.32 to 0.29 m. Relative to the base policy, ADE decreases by 17.9% on SDD and 12.7% on NBA. On ETH-UCY, MoRE also reduces collision rates and better matches ground-truth pedestrian spacing, without increasing measured inference memory or latency. The project page is available at https://jungyu0413.github.io/MoRE/.

35 pages, 15 figures. Project page: https://jungyu0413.github.io/MoRE/

Modern training on a new task often starts from a previously trained model rather than from scratch, raising the question of how this initialization affects the subsequent training trajectory. Classical implicit-bias results characterize the direction selected by prolonged training, but this direction alone does not provide information regarding the intermediate behavior. We address this question through a geometric approximation of full-batch logistic gradient descent (GD) trajectories on strictly linearly separable data, with large initialization of scale $R$ motivated by prior training. From any limiting normalized initial position, we use minimum-norm projection rules to construct a unique continuous ideal path consisting of finitely many linear segments. The path has two stages: negative-margin correction followed by minimum-margin growth. We prove that, after an explicit two-stage time reparameterization, the fixed-step GD trajectory divided by $R$ converges uniformly to this path on every fixed parameter interval as $R\to\infty$. Further, our quantitative error bounds account for initialization perturbations and the transition between stages. This approximation provides asymptotic formulas for peak evaluation loss and cumulative training loss. In particular, peak evaluation loss can grow linearly in $R$ even when both endpoint losses tend to zero. The cumulative losses in the correction and margin-growth stages, normalized by $R^2$ and $R$, respectively, converge to explicit limits. Experiments on controlled geometries and fixed image features complement our theoretical results.

42 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables

Small reasoning models (SRMs) have shown strong performance on complex reasoning tasks by generating extended chain-of-thought trajectories, but they often fail to recover once their reasoning enters an erroneous path. Existing test-time fusion methods rely on local fusion signals to determine when to trigger fusion, which can be misled by transient uncertainty fluctuations and may reinforce unstable reasoning trajectories. We propose ThinkFuse, a training-free test-time fusion framework that selectively intervenes in unreliable reasoning segments. ThinkFuse compares segment-level uncertainty shifts with trajectory-level uncertainty trends to identify unstable reasoning points and fuse auxiliary reasoning paths into the primary model's trajectory. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ThinkFuse outperforms baselines on mathematical and knowledge-intensive reasoning benchmarks, with consistent gains across model-family combinations, and remains robust with a smaller primary model. Our analysis shows that ThinkFuse requires fewer fusion triggers and generates fewer tokens, highlighting the efficiency of selective triggering. Our code is available at https://github.com/js-lee-AI/ThinkFuse.

Accepted to EMNLP 2026 Findings

We study fair multi-armed bandits under the Nash Social Welfare (NSW) objective, which measures performance via the geometric mean of accumulated rewards. Existing work defines Nash regret as $\mathrm{NR}T = μ^\star - (\prod{t=1}^T \mathbb{E}μ_{I_t})^{1/T}$, where $μ_{I_t}$ is the mean reward of the recommended arm $I_t$ and $T$ is the horizon. Since it applies the geometric mean to per-round marginal expectations, it ignores the joint distribution of rewards across rounds, leaving the NSW fairness motivation unaddressed at the trajectory level. We propose \emph{trajectory-wise Nash regret} $\widetilde{\mathrm{NR}}T = μ^\star - \mathbb{E}[(\prod{t=1}^T μ_{I_t})^{1/T}]$, which computes the geometric mean over complete sample paths before taking expectations, capturing NSW fairness more faithfully. By Jensen's inequality, $\widetilde{\mathrm{NR}}_T \geq \mathrm{NR}_T$, making it a strictly stronger metric. We also introduce \emph{high probability Nash regret} $\widehat{\mathrm{NR}}T = μ^\star - (\prod_t μ{I_t})^{1/T}$, giving the first high probability regret bounds in fair bandits. Our two-phase algorithm, Round Robin Nash Confidence Bound (\texttt{RR-NCB}), combines round robin exploration with a Nash confidence bound index policy. We show $\widetilde{\mathrm{NR}}_T \leq \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{k\log T/T})$ and, with probability $1-δ$, $\widehat{\mathrm{NR}}_T \leq \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{k\log(kT/δ)/T})$, matching the optimal $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{k/T})$ rate despite the stronger metrics. Optimality follows from a lower bound via AM-GM and standard $k$-armed bandit minimax arguments. Simulations validate our theory.

Accepted at NeurIPS 2026

Video text editing aims to replace or add text in a video while keeping the rest of the video unchanged, which requires the edited text to be correct in every frame and to move coherently with the scene. Despite the remarkable progress of video diffusion models, they struggle to reproduce exact stroke structures and often produce garbled or wrong characters, especially for characters with complex strokes. To address this, we propose a trajectory-aligned glyph rendering reference that provides explicit per-frame glyph guidance following the position and perspective of the text, and a depth-normalized recognizer feature supervision that supervises the generated text on multi-depth features of a frozen text recognizer with per-depth normalized errors, targeting stroke errors overlooked by the diffusion loss. We further build VTEdit, a benchmark of 288 real-scene clips with 440 annotated text trajectories covering text replacement and text addition, which will be publicly released to facilitate future research. Experiments on VTEdit show that our method outperforms image text editing methods, video editing methods, and commercial models in text accuracy and background preservation, achieving a sentence accuracy of 0.9408, and receives the highest preference in a user study.

Robots operating in real-world environments must often execute complex, multi-step bimanual tasks over long horizons rather than single, isolated actions. Current manipulation datasets provide limited support for this capability: although single-arm datasets reach hundreds of thousands of trajectories, they typically provide only one high-level instruction per episode, while existing bimanual datasets provide subtask annotations for only part of their recorded hours. We present FineART, a densely annotated bimanual manipulation dataset comprising 40,543 episodes (1,718 hours) and 533,913 subtasks across 151 tasks. We also introduce FineART-VLA, a vision-language-action policy that predicts its own next subtask to guide its actions. Mid-training on FineART's subtask annotations improves FineART-VLA's success at following spatial instructions from 32.0% to 100.0%. With step-by-step human subtask guidance, success on unseen long-horizon tasks increases from 16.0% to 76.0%. Furthermore, FineART-VLA matches baseline performance on a new robot with 10x less fine-tuning data and generalizes zero-shot to unseen tasks. We open-source the full dataset, model weights, and training code.

26 pages. Code and model weights will be integrated into Hugging Face LeRobot https://github.com/huggingface/lerobot

Autonomous driving in complex traffic requires planners that generalize beyond hand-crafted rules, motivating data-driven approaches that learn behavior from expert demonstrations. Diffusion-based trajectory planners have recently shown strong closed-loop performance by iteratively denoising a full-horizon plan, but they remain difficult to certify and can fail catastrophically in rare or out-of-distribution scenarios. To address this challenge, we present PC-Diffuser, a safety augmentation framework that embeds a certifiable, path-consistent barrier-function structure directly into the denoising loop of diffusion planning. The key idea is to make safety an intrinsic part of trajectory generation rather than a post-hoc fix: we enforce forward invariance along the rollout while preserving the diffusion model's intended path geometry. Specifically, PC-Diffuser (i) evaluates collision risk using a capsule-distance barrier function that better reflects vehicle geometry and reduces unnecessary conservativeness, (ii) converts denoised waypoints into dynamically feasible motion under a kinematic bicycle model, and (iii) applies a path-consistent safety filter that eliminates residual constraint violations without geometric distortion, so the corrected plan remains close to the learned distribution. By injecting these safety-consistent corrections at every denoising step and feeding the refined trajectory back into the diffusion process, PC-Diffuser enables iterative, context-aware safeguarding instead of post-hoc repair...

A common way for trajectory planning is to leverage generative models trained on large collections of expert trajectories. At inference time, the model generates executable trajectories by conditioning on task goal constraints. However, trajectory-based methods rely on costly supervision, scale poorly with sequence length, and often generalize poorly to unseen constraints such as novel start-goal pairs. We propose an alternative to learn the underlying state-space manifold and use the geometry of the manifold for trajectory planning. This approach requires only state observations and enables generalization to unseen constraints by con- structing trajectories on the learned manifold of the state space. Experiments on Maze2D and robotic motion-planning benchmarks show that Ariadne constructs feasible paths from state-only supervision and generalizes to unseen start-goal combinations. On high-dimensional dual-arm planning, it remains competitive with trajectory-supervised and classical planners, while requiring no trajectory data for training.

Accepted at NeurIPS 2026. Code can be found in https://github.com/SilongYong/Ariadne/

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly participate in morally sensitive decision-making, yet how they organize ethical frameworks across reasoning steps remains underexplored. We introduce moral reasoning trajectories, sequences of ethical framework invocations across intermediate reasoning steps, and analyze their dynamics across six models and three benchmarks. We find that moral reasoning involves systematic multi-framework deliberation: 55.4--57.7% of consecutive steps involve framework switches, and only 16.4--17.8% of trajectories remain framework-consistent. Unstable trajectories remain 1.29 times more susceptible to persuasive attacks (p=0.015). At the representation level, linear probes localize framework-specific encoding to model-specific layers (layer 63/81 for Llama-3.3-70B; layer 17/81 for Qwen2.5-72B), achieving 16.8--22.2% lower KL divergence than the step-prior baseline. Activation steering applied during generation moves the framework-consistency--accuracy relationship, widening it for Qwen2.5-72B and erasing it for Llama-3.3-70B, and a probe-space layer sweep bounds the attainable drift reduction at 6.7--8.9%. We further propose a Moral Representation Consistency (MRC) metric whose underlying framework attributions are validated by human annotators (mean cosine similarity = 0.859), and we report what an automated coherence rater does and does not establish about it.

We updated some more statistical results and analysis

Long chain-of-thought reasoning increases sequential decoding cost while creating a growing history of potentially reusable continuations. We investigate when this history supplies useful drafts and complements an existing drafter. Controlled source comparisons reveal trajectory-specific reuse, motivating our method Trajectory-Local Adaptive Retrieval (TLAR). TLAR retrieves approximately matched continuations from the current trajectory and uses recent verification outcomes to adapt retrieval activation and candidate width. TLAR combines retrieved continuations with model-generated drafts in a shared candidate tree, preserving the target model's output distribution through exact verification. Across code debugging, mathematics, and open-ended writing, our evaluation connects source reuse, incremental acceptance, and execution cost. Combining TLAR with strong retrieval baselines improves token acceptance under matched verification budgets and increases end-to-end throughput over the draft-model baseline. These findings support generated trajectories as runtime memory for adaptive inference.

A key challenge in building AI systems for scientific research is enabling $\textit{scientific exploration}$: the systematic process of investigating unknown phenomena or ideas to gain new knowledge through sequences of research decisions and actions. Yet this process is largely missing from existing scientific corpora; for example, research papers primarily record final outcomes rather than the trajectories that produced them. In this work, we introduce $\textbf{ResearchTrails}$, a dataset of $\textbf{human research trajectories constructed from Git repositories}$, where $\textbf{commit histories}$ serve as proxies for research exploration. We develop an automated and scalable pipeline that extracts structured research trajectories from repository commits, capturing successive changes to methods, experiments, and ablations. We characterize the resulting dataset and show that these trajectories contain meaningful signals about intermediate research decisions beyond what final papers reveal. We further demonstrate utilities of ResearchTrails in multiple use cases, including retrieving human research experience as external skills at test time and training models on research trajectories to improve generalization to new research decisions. Our results suggest a path toward AI systems that learn not only from the products of science, but from the evolving process of discovery itself.

Chain-of-thought reasoning provides a structured computation between a model's input and final answer. Yet it is often evaluated through endpoint accuracy, which ignores the path taken to reach that answer. An emerging line of work addresses this limitation using entropy profiles, which track how uncertainty evolves over the reasoning process but do not reveal which competing hypotheses account for that uncertainty. We introduce answer-distribution trajectories, a stochastic-dynamics-inspired representation that tracks the model's full predictive distribution over answers as reasoning unfolds. As a strictly finer representation than endpoint and entropy summaries, answer-distribution trajectories enable us to characterize a trace through a dynamical reasoning profile spanning exploration, revision, motion, and commitment, and to distinguish different dynamical mechanisms of reasoning success and failure. Across sixteen open-weight language models and four reasoning benchmarks, we show that traces with the same endpoint and similar entropy profiles can exhibit substantially different reasoning dynamics. We further find substantial variation in these dynamics both within and across models and tasks, with different objectives favoring different dynamical profiles. Additionally, we show that training and inference choices systematically reshape these profiles. Our results suggest that answer-distribution trajectories provide a rich framework for analysing and evaluating the dynamics of LLM reasoning.

16 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables

GAMBIT is an opening chess move in which a player sacrifices a piece, typically a pawn, to gain a positional advantage later in the game. Analogously, in multi-robot coordination, individual robots may need to forgo locally reward-maximising behaviours to improve overall team performance. Such self-sacrificial behaviours are difficult to capture with manually designed heuristics, particularly in dense, interaction-rich environments. Focusing on double-integrator continuous dynamics, this work studies how to learn such coordinated heuristics over motion primitives for multi-robot trajectory execution. Our framework, GAMBIT, first learns coordinated motion-primitive selection through imitation learning and subsequently fine-tunes the policy through reinforcement learning. We further introduce a safeguarded rollout mechanism with backup trajectories that guarantees collision-free execution at all times. Experiments demonstrate that GAMBIT substantially outperforms a range of baselines, including centralised motion planners and decentralised reactive planners, while exhibiting strong scalability. In particular, it coordinates over a thousand robots with planning latency below a few hundred milliseconds in continuous domains.

Wi-Fi channel state information (CSI) enables contactless presence detection and gesture recognition. Its high-dimensional complex-valued time series require input representations that preserve informative temporal variations during compression. We propose Trajectory-Guided Tokenization (TGT), which combines complex trajectory decomposition with asymmetric attention to construct compact continuous tokens. For each antenna link and subcarrier, an orthonormal Helmert transform decomposes short, ordered temporal patches into local-center and centered-trajectory coordinates. Keys are learned from the centered-trajectory coordinates, while values retain both components. Learnable queries aggregate subcarriers into frequency slots, which are fused into temporal tokens. Trained jointly from scratch, TGT with TokenMLP achieves the highest mean accuracy of 92.83% among all evaluated frontend-backend combinations on the self-collected dataset. Experiments on EHUNAM and Widar further support the applicability of TGT to cross-domain presence detection and gesture recognition.

Autoregressive generation is natural for language, where predicted tokens can be directly reused as the next prediction state, but trajectory forecasting lacks such a clean token: motion is continuous, multimodal, and expressed in local coordinate frames that evolve with the predicted trajectory. We present MoCAR (Motion-code Coordinate-aware AutoRegression), a decoder-only framework that casts trajectory forecasting as next-code prediction in a coordinate-aware continuous latent space. MoCAR learns a continuous motion-code space from endpoint-normalized trajectory segments, where each code jointly captures local trajectory geometry and the reference-frame transition induced by that segment. Historical motion codes are used as a teacher-forced prefix, future codes are generated autoregressively under temporal, map, agent, and mode interactions, and predicted codes persist in latent memory while decoded endpoints update the local scene context. This enables rollout without trajectory-space re-tokenization, trajectory queries, goal candidates, or proposal-and-refinement pipelines. On Argoverse (AV) benchmarks, MoCAR achieves top-tier performance with a simple single-stage architecture, transfers strongly from AV2 to AV1 in zero-shot evaluation, and improves on turn-heavy scenarios. Ablations confirm that the learned continuous motion-code space, latent alignment, weak KL regularization, and joint tokenizer-predictor optimization are essential for stable latent autoregression.

Accepted at NeurIPS 2026. Camera-ready version

Reliable decision support in digital agriculture requires not only accurate predictions but also well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, particularly for dense prediction tasks such as semantic segmentation. Ensembles provide strong uncertainty quantification but are computationally and memory demanding, while single-model approximations often sacrifice uncertainty quality. We propose ST-LoRA, a parameter-efficient ensemble that builds diverse members from a single training trajectory by combining Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) with snapshot ensembling. All members share a frozen pretrained backbone and differ only in lightweight low-rank adapters, which sharply reduces trainable parameters, checkpoint storage, and I/O overhead. We evaluate SegFormer, Mask2Former, and EoMT on GrowliFlower-L (cauliflower, open field) and BUP20 (sweet pepper, glasshouse), covering in-distribution performance, calibration under covariate shift, and near- and far-out-of-distribution (OoD) detection, with BUTom21 (tomato) as near-OoD data. Extensive ablations show that feed-forward layers, not attention projections, are the critical LoRA target for dense prediction, and that the scaling ratio $α/r$ governs an accuracy--calibration trade-off. Against full-rank snapshot ensembles, ST-LoRA is competitive in segmentation quality, with architecture-dependent training time and energy savings. Against MC Dropout, DDU, and six post-hoc calibrators, it achieves the strongest far-OoD image-level detection and near-OoD pixel-level localization with low cross-seed variance, although full-rank ensembles remain better calibrated. These results show that LoRA-based ensembling offers a compelling efficiency--performance trade-off for agricultural vision systems.

Submitted to Computers and Electronics in Agriculture (Elsevier). Currently under review (first revision round)

Adverse weather and poor illumination remain major challenges for robust ego-trajectory planning in mobile autonomy. 4D radar offers reliable sensing under adverse conditions and direct radial-velocity measurements. However, sensing robustness does not necessarily translate into robust downstream planning, while existing 4D radar benchmarks focus primarily on perception rather than trajectory planning. We present Radar2Plan, a modular benchmark for open-loop ego-trajectory planning using real-world 4D radar data. Radar2Plan connects sensor encoders, scene representations, and planning heads through common interfaces, enabling controlled comparisons between different sensor and planner configurations. Using DSERT-RoLL and MAN TruckScenes, we evaluated seven combinations of camera, 4D radar, and LiDAR in four representative planning baselines and 12 weather and illumination conditions under a unified protocol. To our knowledge, Radar2Plan is the first benchmark dedicated to evaluating real-world 4D radars for autonomous driving planning. Experiments show that 4D radar alone supports competitive ego-trajectory planning and robust performance under adverse conditions. Sensor-configuration comparisons further demonstrate its complementary value to other modalities, while revealing dependencies on sensor combination and planning architecture. The modular design also supports additional datasets, sensing modalities, and planners, providing a flexible foundation for future research on radar-based autonomous driving planning.

9 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables

Multimodal imitation learning requires diverse executable futures under the same observation and consistent behavior across replanning cycles. We present Conditional Trajectory Peaks (CTP), a single-pass policy framework that jointly predicts complete action-chunk candidates, probability masses, and trajectory scales. Distribution-Aware Peak Specialization (DAPS) specializes trajectory peaks using trajectory-level posterior responsibilities and mass- and scale-modulated overlap constraints. Evidence-Gated Trajectory Belief Transport (ETBT) maintains cross-chunk consistency through geometric correspondence between exchangeable candidate sets, while allowing current policy evidence to override historical constraints. CTP achieves a coverage score of 91.40% on Push-T; success rates of 100.0%, 79.72%, and 84.44% on D3IL Avoiding, Aligning, and Sorting-2, respectively. On LIBERO, CTP achieves an average success rate of 97.25%. In real-world dual-arm experiments, CTP preserves both placement modes in a two-plate task, succeeding in all 50 trials. On bottle uprighting and pen placement into a holder, it maintains success rates comparable to $π_{0.5}$ while reducing policy inference latency from 218.24 ms to 75.80 ms. These results demonstrate that single-pass trajectory modeling can combine multimodal behavior, closed-loop consistency, and efficient inference.

8 pages, 6 figures, 5 tables. Project page: https://embodied.magiclab.top/works/ctp/index.html

How the dynamical regime of the observed system affects equation discovery has mainly been investigated through comparisons across systems. However, such comparisons vary both the equations and the dynamics, confounding the effect of the regime with the difficulty of recovering the equations symbolically. We separate the two by varying the forcing of Lorenz-84, moving its fully observed post-transient trajectories through fixed-point, periodic, and chaotic regimes while preserving the equations' functional form. Within each regime, we separately vary the amount of data, the noise, and prior knowledge of which terms the equations contain. We then measure how well two complementary approaches, sparse regression over a fixed library of candidate functions (SINDy) and an evolutionary search over symbolic expression trees (PySR), recover the true equations' terms and coefficients. We find that recovery depends on whether the sampled states distinguish combinations of candidate functions: equations remain poorly recovered from fixed-point data even when the candidate set contains only the true terms. We link the effect of the dynamics on both algorithms to one object: the moment matrix of the candidate functions under the invariant measure of the regime. Small eigenvalues mark weakly distinguishable combinations of candidate functions: we show that more data, less noise, and more prior knowledge can mitigate the resulting recovery difficulties, while a zero eigenvalue makes distinct equations indistinguishable on the visited states. Hence, a more precise prior needs less informative data, with consequences for data collection, method design, and evaluation.

35 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables (main text and appendices)

Visual voice cloning requires intelligible, speaker-consistent speech synchronized with visible articulation. However, sequential multimodal conditioning can disrupt previously established temporal and speaker cues, while imbalanced inference guidance can improve linguistic accuracy at the expense of lip synchronization. In this paper, we propose UltraDub, a Unifying Visually-Steered Flow learning and trajectory Guidance Dubbing framework that leverages vision in two ways: as continuous motion for multimodal context aggregation, and as structural rhythm for trajectory rectification. Specifically, we introduce the Motion-guided Dual-context Retrieving (MDR) module, which continually recalibrates linguistic and speaker-style retrieval through shared lip-motion query residuals, utilizing independent time-conditioned gates to regulate their contributions. Furthermore, we propose Rhythm-anchored Trajectory Guidance (RTG), a training-free mechanism that evaluates hierarchical multimodal corrections at a visual-only predictive midpoint, safely strengthening semantic conditioning while better preserving temporal alignment. Finally, we construct DiverseDub, a multi-scenario benchmark to evaluate video dubbing in the wild. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UltraDub achieves state-of-the-art performance across four datasets.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is effective for expensive black-box optimization, but its performance often degrades on multimodal or high-dimensional problems. A promising remedy is to run multiple local search processes, such as trust region--based BO, and allocate evaluations to those with high potential. However, current best values do not always reflect the final performance of each process. We propose a trajectory-aware best-arm identification (BAI) framework that uses optimization history to guide this allocation. The proposed method extrapolates improvement trajectories, estimates final performance, and progressively eliminates low-potential candidates. For trust region--based BO, we theoretically show that the proposed BAI-guided allocation accelerates convergence to the global optimum under mild assumptions. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks demonstrate that our method improves BO on multimodal problems. We also show that the same mechanism can enhance other local or population-based optimizers, suggesting its potential as a general extension strategy for multimodal black-box optimization.

Terminal agents are commonly trained by imitating long teacher trajectories, yet how much of each trajectory to supervise remains unexplored. We study the \emph{supervision horizon}, the number of trajectory tokens retained for training, and show that it is a key design axis for reliability and cost. Reliability improves with longer horizons but saturates: on Terminal-Bench, a 12K-token horizon solves more tasks than 16K ($29\pm0.7$ vs.\ $26\pm0.8$) while requiring 30% less training time. The horizon also shapes agent behavior: short horizons cause premature termination, intermediate horizons yield productive error recovery, and long horizons induce over-persistence. We analyze this saturation through a bias--complexity bound, in which longer supervision reduces temporal supervision bias but increases finite-sample estimation error from more heterogeneous late-stage histories. Guided by this analysis, we propose \emph{selective long-horizon refinement}, which first trains on short prefixes and then refines only on continuations that are most likely under the warm-start model. It consistently outperforms full long-horizon training. At 16K, it raises successful attempts from $110\pm2.7$ to $126\pm2.1$ and tasks solved in at least six of eight attempts from $9\pm0.7$ to $14\pm0.6$; with half of the long-horizon data, it still reaches $122\pm2.4$ while cutting training time by 23%. The gains transfer across benchmarks, from $64\pm2.6$ to $73\pm2.1$ on Terminal-Bench v2.0 and from $137\pm2.7$ to $155\pm2.2$ on OpenThoughts-TBLite. For long-horizon supervision, selecting the right trajectories matters more than training on all of them.

Submitted to ICLR 2027

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) policies increasingly benefit from strong semantic priors provided by large vision-language models (VLMs). However, standard action supervision does not explicitly encourage intermediate representations to preserve scene geometry, relative orientation, or global episode progress. Incorporating depth estimators, explicit maps, point clouds, or geometry foundation models at inference can provide such structure but introduces additional computation, memory overhead, and architectural dependence during deployment. We introduce StageVLN, a training framework that shapes navigation representations through privileged spatial and trajectory guidance while preserving the original inference pathway. A frozen geometry foundation model provides multi-level spatial guidance to hierarchical navigator states, while relative-heading and expert-route progress objectives provide complementary trajectory-state supervision. All auxiliary components are used only during training and removed at deployment. On R2R-CE validation-unseen, StageVLN achieves 56.3% SR and 51.4% SPL with a 4B-parameter backbone, without an additional geometry encoder at inference. On RxR-CE, it achieves 54.3% SR without additional navigation training data or a geometry encoder at inference.

Emerging mission classes such as on-orbit servicing, satellite inspection, and active debris removal require trajectory design methods that are adaptable to a variety of mission scenarios. We present a diffusion-based trajectory generation approach for rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO) that enables flexible configuration of mission constraints. First, individual energy-based diffusion models are trained to satisfy distinct constraints such as approach cone and sensor line-of-sight from a set of optimized trajectories. Then, at inference time, the learned energy models can be composed with one another, or with an analytically defined energy field, to enforce specific constraint combinations. We validate this framework with the composition of a learned approach cone model and a learned sensor line-of-sight model, as well as a learned approach cone model and synthetic obstacle avoidance model, both of which yield constraint satisfaction rates that are within 1 percentage point of the single-constraint models or higher. These results indicate that our compositional diffusion framework can provide a modular approach to RPO trajectory design and enable reconfiguration for new constraint combinations without requiring model retraining.

Human health is a continuous, dynamic trajectory shaped by the cumulative interplay of biological processes, clinical events, behaviors and environmental exposures across the life course. Unifying the full breadth of lifelong health information, including longitudinal records, genetic variation, molecular profiles and environmental histories, is essential for whole-person modeling and remains a major challenge. We introduce LifeLong Digital Twin, a unified, event-driven modeling paradigm that organizes Life Events into daily Health States and accumulates them into Lifelong Health Context. An accompanying Agent Harness incorporates multimodal evidence beyond the language model's textual context. We evaluate four language models across 25 disease endpoints on three tasks: Disease Trajectory Forecasting, Disease Risk Ranking and Multi-horizon Disease Prediction. The approach yields marked gains over the reference condition: model-averaged F1 increases by 22.0% for disease identification in trajectory forecasting and 18.3% for five-year disease outcomes; thyroid-disease F1 reaches 0.669. The framework provides a foundation for whole-person digital twins and research on personalized lifelong disease prevention.

15 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. Technical report

Video emotion understanding is commonly studied as an offline classification problem, where the complete video segment is available before prediction. Real-time interaction, however, requires emotion decisions from incomplete and evolving evidence. This paper studies streaming video emotion understanding as a reliability-aware decision process over evolving emotion beliefs. In this setting, a single confident prefix prediction can still be unreliable when the underlying belief trajectory is unstable or repeatedly switches across emotion classes. We propose TRACE, a trajectory-aware reliability framework that forms low-latency emotion beliefs from streaming audio prefixes, estimates reliability from confidence, entropy, stability, and class-switching patterns, and selectively invokes contextual belief reinterpretation with visual, textual, and neighboring-utterance evidence. TRACE keeps stable cases in the low-latency online pathway while allocating stronger multimodal reasoning to uncertain cases that remain ambiguous. Experiments on StreamMER, MELD, and MER2024 show that TRACE improves the accuracy-cost trade-off, retaining most full-context gains while reducing unnecessary contextual reasoning.

Accepted by EMNLP2026

Large language models (LLMs) progressively revise their predictions across Transformer layers, yet we typically observe only the final output, discarding the trajectory through which it is formed. We introduce Belief-Trajectory Energy(BTE), a model-grounded measure that characterizes an input through the layerwise predictive revisions it induces in a model. By mapping intermediate states into a shared predictive space, BTE provides a principled measure of belief change that can be summarized as either a scalar or a structured depth profile. Theoretically, we show that local BTE corresponds to predictive revision under the Fisher-Rao geometry, while the sequence of revisions captures information beyond the initial-to-final belief change. Empirically, scalar BTE provides a model-relative signal of difficulty across diverse reasoning tasks, while richer BTE representations support human-LLM review detection and fine-grained generator attribution, reaching up to $0.998$ macro-AUROC and $95.6%$ eight-way attribution accuracy. Further analysis shows that BTE develops throughout pretraining and is selectively reshaped by targeted training, demonstrating that the resulting measurement reflects what the scoring model has learned. Together, our results establish belief trajectories as a principled model-grounded signal and suggest a broader perspective in which learned models can themselves serve as instruments for characterizing the data they process. More demonstrations can be found at https://yingjiahao14.github.io/BTE-web/.

Evaluation budgets in agentic retrieval-augmented generation span questions, search trajectories, and repeated answers. We measure allocation precision, reading efficiency, and cost boundaries using a retrieval-feedback comparison on HotpotQA and MuSiQue. At 34.14--34.39M model tokens, broader question coverage lowers standard error by 33% versus five reads and 12.6% versus three trajectories. Archived nested and Q-only forecasts predict these allocations within 4.0% and 3.5%, respectively. Depth subsets establish no clear forecasting advantage beyond the two-trajectory audit. One-read variance penalties relative to the fitted optimum at the same token budget are 0--9.9%, with substantial Pro uncertainty. Under recorded model fees, more questions beat more trajectories at search prices of $0--1 per 1,000 requests; question-versus-read fee rankings remain unresolved. Temperature zero cuts answer disagreement from 14.3% to 3.4% while comparison precision stays similar. \par\medskip\noindent\textbf{Keywords:} Agentic RAG; Evaluation budget; Generalizability theory; Repeated sampling.

Concept erasure is essential for the safe deployment of text-to-image diffusion models, as they may reproduce harmful, copyrighted, or privacy-sensitive content learned from unconstrained large-scale data. Existing methods typically erase unwanted concepts while preserving general generation capability by redirecting target-related text-to-image mappings. However, recent studies show that erased models may still retain visual generative trajectories of target concepts, leaving them vulnerable to adversarial recovery attacks and revealing a fundamental gap between redirecting text-to-image mappings and truly removing visual knowledge. To bridge this gap, we propose VisualErase, a new paradigm that redirects concept-bearing visual generative trajectories toward explicitly defined concept-removed outcomes. To enable this redirection, we use structure-preserving image editing to construct content-aligned, concept-removed counterparts for source images, providing explicit visual endpoints that retain non-target content. We then derive a denoising target from each source-to-counterpart pair and use a dual-branch redirection loss to align both text-conditioned and unconditional predictions with this target, since conditional supervision alone does not explicitly constrain generation without textual guidance. To mitigate the adverse effects of concept erasure on non-target generation, we jointly optimize the redirection loss with a counterpart retention loss that matches denoising predictions from the frozen pretrained model. Across style, celebrity, and nudity erasure, VisualErase limits the maximum attack success rate over seven attacks to 0%, 8%, and 0.1%, respectively, while retaining general generation quality. These results highlight the importance of visual trajectory redirection for robust concept erasure beyond text-to-image mappings alone.

The project page is https://qianlong0502.github.io/VisualErase-Homepage

Methods for assessing language-model agents include rule checkers over logs, analyses of skill coverage and composition, support checkers, prefix monitors, execution gates, and rare-event estimators. Each observes a different part of a run and makes a claim of a different strength, and no common account says how these claims combine or what they leave unchecked. We give one, built from a logic, information fragments, and an assurance ledger. Requirements are formulas of a two-tier logic: an outer finite-trace temporal logic over recorded events, and an inner logic of standing over the argument structure that the agent's recorded context supports at a decision. A rule violation and an action taken on withdrawn support are thus formulas of one language. The information available to an assessor, to the agent, and to an execution gate defines fragments of that language; each checking method decides one fragment and returns a typed claim: exact, on a named test suite, a risk bound, or descriptive. The ledger merges the evidence and classifies every obligation as established, addressed but not established, or unaddressed. On 456 released $τ^2$-bench telecom trajectories, the benchmark oracle flags 231 runs; adding a rule checker, a support stand-in, and a prefix-monitor baseline raises the union to 391, 401, and 407, each contributing flags the others miss, and a gate makes one prohibition exact on a gated deployment. The 49 unflagged runs and the unmet or unaddressed obligations form the residual. Discovery makes unknown requirements explicit, and new or stronger checkers then reduce it.

We study the joint recovery of an unknown system matrix $A\in\mathbb R^{n\times n}$ and a rank-$r$ initial-state matrix $X_0\in\mathbb R^{n\times m}$ from partial observations of the state matrices $A^tX_0$, for $t=0,\ldots,T$. Each trajectory is observed at a fixed set of state coordinates, which may differ across trajectories. We derive necessary conditions for identifiability, including obstructions arising from incomplete spatial coverage and insufficient dynamical span, as well as lower bounds on the number of observations. We then characterize the Jacobian of the measurement map, account for the intrinsic symmetry of the low-rank factorization, and establish a rank-certificate principle yielding generic local identifiability. When the trajectories whose initial states form a basis of $\operatorname{range}(X_0)$ are fully observed, we obtain necessary and sufficient rank conditions for global recovery, together with explicit reconstruction formulas. We formulate the joint recovery problem as a nonlinear least-squares problem over the system matrix $A$ and the low-rank factors of $X_0$, and solve it using Adam. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world data evaluate the recovery performance under different spatial sampling rates and observation horizons.

Counterfactual inference asks how an observed outcome might have differed under different circumstances, such as whether a patient would have recovered had they received a different treatment. Such questions arise whenever decisions depend on the outcomes of alternatives that were not observed. Answering counterfactual queries generally requires knowledge of the underlying causal structure, which is often unavailable in practice. A common approach is therefore to first estimate the causal graph from observational data and then perform counterfactual inference. However, errors in the estimated causal graph can propagate to downstream counterfactual predictions. To address this challenge, we introduce the Counterfactual Graph Neural Process (CFGNP), an end-to-end approach that answers counterfactual queries directly from observational data without first estimating a causal graph. CFGNP uses Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to exploit the dual-graph structure by restricting cross-world message passing to corresponding factual--counterfactual variables. Across synthetic and image-based benchmarks, CFGNP achieves stronger predictive performance than existing approaches, including on the German Loan benchmark, where it reduces MSE from $4.51 \times 10^{-2}$ to $0.19 \times 10^{-2}$. Furthermore, on synthetic causal graphs, a model trained only on 10-node graphs maintains strong predictive performance on graphs with up to 30 nodes, without retraining.

Data-driven surrogates reduce the nonlinear solves required for probabilistic power flow (PPF), but models tied to a fixed bus--branch graph often generalize poorly when outages change electrical coupling. This paper proposes a topology-decomposition-driven hierarchical bidirectional graph neural network (TDD--HBGNN) for PPF under unseen topologies. For each realized topology, the network is decomposed into fundamental topological units (FTUs), dynamically homogeneous voltage clusters (DHVCs), and a core backbone sub-grid (CBSG), with equivalent-admittance representations preserving electrical ports between units. A sensitivity-based linear prior captures the first-order voltage-magnitude and phase-angle response, while the HBGNN learns topology-dependent nonlinear residuals. Impedance- and uncertainty-aware bottom-up aggregation condenses local perturbations, while mode-modulated top-down broadcasting restores system context at buses. We evaluate our approach on the IEEE 118-bus and Polish 2746-bus systems under unseen N--1 and N--2 contingencies against six baseline methods. Compared with these methods, TDD--HBGNN achieves 2.47--4.20-fold lower all-bus phase-angle errors and lower phase-angle errors in every held-out event. Its voltage-magnitude advantage is concentrated near the outaged branches, where paired error ratios reach 1.75--2.58 on the IEEE system and 1.87--1.97 in Polish N--2 events. All system--contingency--baseline comparisons favor TDD--HBGNN in joint voltage--angle error. Moreover, shared hierarchical operators keep the model size at 0.658 million parameters across both grids and yield 0.161--1.793~ms forward latency per probabilistic case. These results demonstrate system-wide angular accuracy, outage-local voltage accuracy, and parameter-efficient scaling across unseen topologies.

While deep ensembles are widely considered to be the default method for uncertainty quantification in deep learning, their effectiveness for graph-structured data is often simply assumed based on successes in domains like computer vision. We investigate standard deep ensembles specifically for message-passing graph neural networks. Benchmarking across eight datasets representing varied tasks and complexities, we reveal that ensembles provide only marginal improvement over a single model. These marginal gains stem primarily from averaging out optimization noise in point predictions rather than from meaningfully better uncertainty estimates. Through an aleatoric-epistemic decomposition, we identify epistemic collapse: independently trained networks consistently converge to overly similar predictions. Because disagreement is the fundamental mechanism through which ensembles capture epistemic uncertainty, this lack of diversity neutralizes their key advantage. Towards explaining this phenomenon, we derive a bound on epistemic variance in terms of the graph topology and Dirichlet energy budget, linking epistemic collapse to the smoothing bias of message passing. Our results suggest that deep ensemble success does not seamlessly transfer to graph machine learning.

The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based maritime surveillance is becoming an important part of maritime Internet of Things (IoT) and intelligent transportation systems. It provides a flexible and cost-effective way to large-scale maritime traffic monitoring. However, achieving robust situational awareness remains challenging in practical maritime environments. The main challenges arise from heterogeneous sensing modalities, adverse imaging conditions, and spatial misalignment caused by UAV motion. To address these problems, this paper proposes an airborne multi-modal graph learning-driven framework, termed AMGT, for vessel identification and tracking in UAV-assisted maritime IoT. Specifically, visible and infrared images are first aligned and fused through a multi-parameter perspective transformation model. This improves visual perception under low visibility and complex illumination conditions. Automatic identification system (AIS) messages are then temporally synchronized using interpolation and linear prediction. To detect small and oriented vessels, we develop a mixed-modality MAir-YOLOv8-OBB detector, followed by the MAir-SORT algorithm for stable vessel tracking. We further design a graph learning-driven association network to model temporal dynamics and spatial dependencies among vessels and between vessels and UAVs. A motion-aware coordinate unification (MCU) strategy is also introduced to reduce nonlinear misalignment caused by UAV motion. Experiments on the MAP-M2UAV50 dataset show that AMGT achieves high accuracy and efficiency. The results demonstrate its potential for UAV-assisted maritime IoT applications, including vessel monitoring, traffic situational awareness, and intelligent maritime transportation services. The dataset and code will be available at https://github.com/MAPGroup/AMGT.

Physics foundation models are an increasingly popular approach for building versatile emulators for spatiotemporal systems. They require tokenisation layers that lift physical field data into a latent representation suitable for dynamic processing. A typical choice for this layer is a convolutional encoder, which lifts field information in a locality-aware way and can be trained very efficiently. However, this choice cannot be applied to a large class of scientific computing problems where data are represented on unstructured meshes, for example simulations on domains with curved boundaries. Such data typically require graph neural network architectures, which are more expensive to train and, in the form currently used, encode information differently from their CNN counterparts, thus limiting the portability of physics emulators between these data regimes. In this work we introduce Mesh-Native Convolution (MNC), a locality-aware tokenisation layer that encodes unstructured mesh-based data in a way that is analogous to CNNs. This approach leads to models that can be trained once on mesh data and then deployed to arbitrary unstructured meshes, even if these are irregular, with minimal retraining. We show that this tokenisation approach can be used to retrofit grid-pretrained foundation models efficiently on unstructured meshes and provide theoretical results to confirm the consistency of this approach with classical CNN encoders. We demonstrate the favourable performance of this retrofitting approach, which in many cases reaches acceptable accuracy even in zero-shot deployment, and outperforms existing baselines after only a few epochs of fine-tuning, thus providing an efficient bridge between the two data regimes.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are widely used as regressors, for example to predict the accuracy of a neural architecture. Yet new message-passing (MP) layers are developed and benchmarked almost exclusively on classification tasks, and regression pipelines typically adopt a single MP layer without ablation. We ask how much the choice of MP layer matters for graph-level regression. Holding the architecture, loss and training recipe of four existing GNN regressors fixed, we substitute ten MP configurations spanning convolutional, isomorphism-based and attention-based designs. We evaluate them on eleven datasets of neural-network graphs that range from under ten to over a thousand nodes per graph and from a few hundred to over four hundred thousand samples, measuring rank correlation, prediction error, top-$k$ retrieval, latency and memory. MP choice changes results substantially, and we find that the best choice depends on graph size, training-set size and regression objective. Classical layers such as GEN, $k$-GNN and PNA match or exceed attention-based layers on small architecture graphs at lower cost, while GATv2 performs well on datasets with few large graphs.

20 pages, 8 figures, 25 tables

Algorithm Selection is essential for efficient Constraint Programming. Over the years, many algorithm selectors based on machine learning methods have been successfully applied, yet traditional feature extraction methods often rely on manually decided instance-level statistics that fail to capture the underlying problem structure. In this paper we aim to bridge this gap by introducing a novel, automated feature extraction methodology that integrates graph conversion and Weisfeiler-Lehman graph kernels to generate robust structural representations of problem instances. The 1-WL test bounds the graph-distinguishing power of standard message-passing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and suitable GNN architectures match this bound \citep{Xuetal2018}. WL-based features offer an alternative that does not require training a GNN. Our primary contribution is a cut-based representation (\texttt{WLc}) designed to model structural partitions and provide a more nuanced predictive signal. We evaluate our approach on instances from the 2023--2025 MiniZinc Challenges across two tasks: maximizing Borda count scores and maximizing predictive accuracy. Experimental results across Support Vector Machines, Random Forests, and Multi-Layer Perceptrons demonstrate that cut-based features outperform \texttt{fzn2feat} with SVMs, while results with RFs and MLPs are closer.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) predict molecular properties from chemical graph data, but predictive accuracy does not explain how graph information supports an individual decision. A compact prediction-preserving rationale does not necessarily reveal which changes reverse the decision or which modifications the model tolerates. We propose the Multi-Perspective Graph Explainer (MPGE), unifying factual support, counterfactual sensitivity, and exemplar tolerance for a frozen classifier. The factual view, originally termed prototype (PT), seeks a compact retained edge set with the same label and required confidence. Counterfactual (CF) explanations seek bounded prediction-changing deletions; exemplar (EXE) explanations seek non-trivial bounded deletions that preserve the label and confidence. A shared constrained formulation connects prediction behavior, compactness, and edit cost, while separate objectives generate the three views. Our graph-classification extension of CF-GNNExplainer learns symmetric edge rankings and verifies discrete candidates, recording unsuccessful searches. A separate BBBP fragment backend returns RDKit-sanitized molecules. We evaluate the primary GCN implementation on MUTAG, Mutagenicity, AIDS, COX2_MD, and BBBP using semantic coverage, conditional quality, stability, and runtime. Successful factual masks retained 8.6%--15.5% of input edges on average across datasets; bounded counterfactual coverage was 4.8%--67.6%, and exemplar preservation coverage was 98.9%--100.0%. Exploratory controls reveal the influence of hard projection and retained node information. Quantitative comparisons and molecular visualizations characterize model support, sensitivity, and tolerance without treating them as validated chemical mechanisms.

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is an imaging technique widely used to study human brain activity. fMRI signals in areas across the brain transiently synchronise and desynchronise their activity in a highly structured manner, even when an individual is at rest. These functional connectivity dynamics may be related to behaviour and neuropsychiatric disease. To model these dynamics, temporal brain connectivity representations are essential, as they reflect evolving interactions between brain regions and provide insight into transient neural states and network reconfigurations. However, conventional graph neural networks (GNNs) often struggle to capture long-range temporal dependencies in dynamic fMRI data. To address this challenge, we propose BrainATCL, an unsupervised, nonparametric framework for adaptive temporal brain connectivity learning, enabling functional link prediction and age estimation. Our method dynamically adjusts the lookback window for each snapshot based on the rate of newly added edges. Graph sequences are subsequently encoded using a GINE-Mamba2 backbone to learn spatial-temporal representations of dynamic functional connectivity in resting-state fMRI data of 1,000 participants from the Human Connectome Project. To further improve spatial modeling, we incorporate brain structure and function-informed edge attributes, i.e., the left/right hemispheric identity and subnetwork membership of brain regions, enabling the model to capture biologically meaningful topological patterns. We evaluate our BrainATCL on two tasks: functional link prediction and age estimation. The experimental results demonstrate superior performance and strong generalization, including in cross-session prediction scenarios.

Camera-ready version. Published at MIDL 2026. Final version: https://proceedings.mlr.press/v315/huang26b.html

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) over knowledge graphs requires retrievers that can effectively capture both graph structure and semantic information. Recent approaches have explored graph neural network (GNN)-based retrievers to model graph topology in multi-hop reasoning tasks. In parallel, graph language models (GLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm that integrates graph reasoning and the semantic capabilities of language models. In this work, we introduce a GLM-based retriever and investigate the comparative strengths of GLM-based, GNN-based, and traditional vector-search-based retrievers in single- and multi-hop RAG settings, and with a particular focus on transferability to unseen domains. Our findings suggest that finetuned GLM retrievers generalize better out of domain, achieving SOTA on two multi-hop benchmarks. On in-domain multi-hop QA datasets they remain comparable to prior work, with promising scaling as parameters and subgraph coverage increase. GNN-based retrievers achieve higher graph coverage with an efficient training setup, whereas the vector-search baseline excels at single-hop datasets.

Accepted to AACL-IJCNLP 2026, 9 pages, 19 figures

Intelligent operation of thermal energy networks aims to improve energy efficiency, reliability, and operational flexibility through data-driven control, predictive optimization, and early fault detection. Achieving these goals relies on sufficient observability, requiring continuous and well-distributed monitoring of thermal and hydraulic states. However, district heating systems are typically sparsely instrumented and frequently affected by sensor faults, limiting monitoring. Virtual sensing offers a cost-effective means to enhance observability, yet its development and validation remain limited in practice. Existing data-driven methods generally assume dense synchronized data, while analytical models rely on simplified hydraulic and thermal assumptions that may not adequately capture the behavior of heterogeneous network topologies. Consequently, modeling the coupled nonlinear dependencies between pressure, flow, and temperature under realistic operating conditions remains challenging. In addition, the lack of publicly available benchmark datasets hinders systematic comparison of virtual sensing approaches. To address these challenges, we propose a heterogeneous spatial-temporal graph neural network (HSTGNN) for constructing virtual smart heat meters. The model incorporates the functional relationships inherent in district heating networks and employs dedicated branches to learn graph structures and temporal dynamics for flow, temperature, and pressure measurements, thereby enabling the joint modeling of cross-variable and spatial correlations. To support further research, we introduce a controlled laboratory dataset collected at the Aalborg Smart Water Infrastructure Laboratory, providing synchronized high-resolution measurements representative of real operating conditions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms existing baselines.

Accepted to Energy and Buildings

Online platforms contain growing numbers of bots, deceptive reviewers, and scam accounts that imitate legitimate users. Such camouflage blurs graph neighborhoods and behavioral attributes, making it difficult for graph neural networks (GNNs) to distinguish both well-disguised fraudsters and legitimate users. Across diverse GNNs, we observe overlapping errors on a shared hard region, suggesting the presence of latent fraud evidence that graph topologies and standard features fail to capture. Fraud-specific GNNs can mitigate particular graph pathologies, yet they still make limited use of heterogeneous evidence such as structured records, text, images, and audio; uniform multimodal fusion may also disturb nodes already handled reliably by the graph. We propose Evi-VN to learn and correct these shared blind spots rather than build another fraud detector. To our knowledge, Evi-VN is the first graph fraud detection framework to use feature isolated evidence chains to correct hard regions shared across GNNs. Its evidence chains connect behavior, content, and context across structured, textual, visual, and acoustic sources, helping expose camouflage that graph neighborhoods may miss. Crucially, Evi-VN selectively applies this evidence only to likely hard samples via virtual class nodes, preserving both the reliable predictions and the input design of existing GNNs. Shared hard regions also let Evi-VN enhance generic, fraud-specific, and unseen GNNs even with imperfect evidence models. Experiments across bot, fake-review, refund-evidence, and telecom-fraud tasks validate these advantages.

17 pages, including supplementary material

Spatio-temporal tracking data has opened new possibilities for detecting complex tactical patterns in football, yet modeling the interactive movements of multiple players remains challenging. This paper proposes a framework combining graph neural networks (GNNs) with a sequential model to classify match phases on a second-by-second basis across a seven-class taxonomy. Match phase classification is tactically meaningful, and the availability of rule-based labels across 203 matches makes it a suitable testbed for a systematic comparison of adjacency constructions and message-passing layers, a question that has received limited attention in existing research. Our selected GNN-LSTM model outperforms all aggregated-feature baselines, including XGBoost and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, as the strongest baseline scores 4.6% lower in macro F1. Graph representations using a domain-informed Delaunay triangulation that approximates passing lanes, paired with a custom Spatial Edge-Augmented Convolution (SEAConv) layer that injects edge attributes directly into messages, achieve the best performance by capturing spatial dependencies while limiting uninformative messages from redundant edges. Integrated Gradients attributions indicate the model uses spatial player configurations, particularly horizontal positioning, in combination with possession and ball-status indicators. This work offers an automated solution for fine-grained tactical analysis, reducing the need for manual tagging and providing deeper insight into dynamic team behavior.

Acquiring realistic microstructure data through Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) is costly and time consuming, often relying on specialised equipment. As microstructures strongly influence material properties, generating realistic samples is essential for modelling the behaviour of polycrystalline materials. We introduce a generative model for synthesising realistic polycrystalline microstructures using flow matching and graph neural networks. By representing microstructures as anisotropic power diagrams, our model learns a compact geometric parametrisation and can render generated samples at arbitrary pixel resolution. A $C_4$-equivariant architecture incorporates rotational symmetry directly into the model, ensuring that rotations of the input noise produce corresponding rotations of the generated microstructure. We also demonstrate how training-free guidance can be used to generate complex microstructures, based on user defined objective function. In particular, we generate microstructures resembling a copper weld, cast metal slab, 3D-printed stainless steel and heterogeneous lamella titanium.

Accepted at the NeurIPS 2026 workshops on Representations for the Physical Sciences and Geometric Distributional Deep Learning. 12 pages, 2 figures, 1 table

Graph clustering is a fundamental task in data analysis, aiming at grouping nodes with similar characteristics in the graph into clusters. This problem has been widely explored using graph neural networks (GNNs) due to their ability to leverage node attributes and graph topology for effective cluster assignments. However, representations learned through GNNs typically struggle to capture global relationships between nodes via local message-passing mechanisms. Moreover, the redundancy and noise inherently present in graph data may easily result in node representations lacking compactness and robustness. To address these issues, we propose a conjoint framework CoCo, which captures compactness and consistency in the learned node representations for deep graph clustering. Technically, our CoCo leverages graph convolutional filters to learn robust node representations from both local and global views, and then encodes them into low-rank compact embeddings, thus effectively removing the redundancy and noise as well as uncovering the intrinsic underlying structure. To further enrich the node semantics, we develop a consistency learning strategy based on compact embeddings to facilitate knowledge transfer from the two perspectives. Our experimental results indicate that our CoCo outperforms state-of-the-art counterparts on various datasets.

Accepted by Proceedings of the Fourteenth International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR 2026 Oral)

The dynamic topology and heterogeneous traffic demands of multi-satellite systems present substantial challenges for beam-hopping (BH) resource management. This letter develops a topology-aware cooperative BH framework for multi-satellite systems under partial observability. A lightweight load-balancing scheme first determines the serving relationships, which are then exploited to construct an association-induced satellite-user graph. A two-phase graph neural network (GNN) extracts episode-level topology-aware structural identities for parameter-sharing agents, while a recurrent multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO) policy handles slot-level dynamics for joint beam scheduling and onboard power control. Simulation results demonstrate notable gains in energy efficiency, throughput, and fairness over the baselines.

5 pages, 5 figures, accepted

In many networked systems, interventions applied to one group of units can induce substantial causal effects on another group through cross-group interference pathways. Despite its practical importance in domains such as public health, digital marketing, and social policy, the problem of identifying which intervention subset in a source group maximizes the benefit on a target group remains largely unaddressed. We formalize this problem as cross-group causal influence estimation and introduce the core-to-group causal effect (Co2G), a formally defined causal estimand that quantifies the contrast in target-group outcomes under intervention versus non-intervention on a candidate source subset. We establish the nonparametric identifiability of Co2G from observational network data using do-calculus under standard causal assumptions, and develop a graph neural network-based estimator that captures cross-group interference patterns. To navigate the combinatorial search space of candidate subsets, we propose CauMax, an uncertainty-aware causal effect maximization framework with two scalable selection algorithms: (i) CauMax-G, an iterative greedy search with Monte Carlo dropout-based lower confidence bounds, and (ii) CauMax-D, a differentiable gradient-based optimization via a concrete Gumbel-Softmax relaxation. Extensive experiments on semi-synthetic data over two real-world social-network topologies, complemented by a real-outcome validation on three additional networks, show that CauMax substantially reduces regret relative to structural and diffusion-based heuristics, by up to an order of magnitude at small budgets and consistently across all budgets, while remaining robust to the uncertainty-penalty weight.

10 pages; ICDM 2026 camera-ready version; revised text, added real-outcome validation, and updated references

Skillful prediction of biomass-burning activity several days in advance is important for air-quality forecasting and aerosol prediction. Two operational constraints motivate this work. First, the GBBEPx satellite fire radiative power (FRP) product used to initialize NOAA's GEFS-Aerosols is available with about a 1.5-day latency, so each forecast cycle relies on the most recently available, but already outdated, fire observations. Second, these fire inputs are then held fixed throughout the subsequent 5-day operational forecast, or 7 days in the GSL experimental system, effectively assuming no evolution in fire activity. We develop a data-driven model that predicts global FRP one to seven days ahead from the most recent available observations. The model adapts a spatiotemporal graph neural network using reanalysis meteorology, land-cover and vegetation information, recent fire history, and GBBEPx FRP as the training target. It is trained on 2020-2022 data and evaluated for 2023-2024. The model reproduces the global seasonal cycle and substantially outperforms persistence. At 0.1$^\circ$ resolution, mean squared error is reduced by 32% at one-day lead and 43% at seven days in 2023, and by 24% and 40% in 2024. At 1$^\circ$ resolution, the critical success index ranges from 0.32 to 0.60. Detection skill declines only modestly with lead time, whereas intensity skill degrades more rapidly. Large fires are detected reliably, but their radiative power is systematically underestimated. These results demonstrate useful predictability of fire activity several days ahead and identify intensity calibration and small-fire placement as the main remaining challenges before predicted FRP can support operational aerosol forecasts.

Submitted to Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

Equivariant graph neural networks have emerged as foundational architectures for machine-learned interatomic potentials, approaching quantum-chemical accuracy at a fraction of the computational cost. These models describe local atomic environments accurately, but finite spatial cutoffs truncate long-range information flow, and stacking message-passing layers can lead to over-smoothing and over-squashing. Existing long-range extensions either prescribe a fixed analytical propagation kernel, restrict long-range communication to scalars or degree-preserving channels, are only approximately equivariant, or incur super-linear computational cost. Combining learnable long-range equivariant transport with multiscale many-body expressivity and efficient scaling for larger systems remains a central challenge. We introduce Neural Equivariant Multipole Operators (NEMORA), a neural equivariant extension of the Fast Multipole Method (FMM) for learning long-range tensorial representations. NEMORA generalizes the FMM's analytical multipole expansion and translation operators to learned equivariant counterparts on an adaptive spatial hierarchy. Its operators couple angular degrees and form many-body interactions across length scales, retaining the FMM's hierarchical organization and analytical radial factors as physical inductive biases while learning data-dependent long-range couplings. NEMORA evaluates in linear time and memory complexity, allowing it to treat larger systems than other long-range methods reaching hundreds of thousands of atoms, and it augments both symmetry-constrained and unconstrained short-range backbones. On non-local benchmarks, it reduces force and energy errors relative to the short-range backbones by over an order of magnitude and up to three orders of magnitude, respectively, which is better than or competitive with existing long-range extensions in accuracy.

59 pages, 5 figures, including supplementary material

Large language models (LLMs) have recently advanced graph neural networks (GNNs) by enriching node representations with semantic information, giving rise to LLM-enhanced GNNs that achieve substantial performance gains. However, how such semantic enhancement affects privacy risks remains largely underexplored. To bridge this gap, we systematically audit the privacy risks of LLM-enhanced GNNs through a unified framework consisting of five stages: (1) dataset preparation, (2) victim model training, (3) privacy attack, (4) risk assessment, and (5) defense analysis. Specifically, our evaluation spans ten text-attributed graph datasets across diverse domains, six privacy attacks, 42 LLM-enhanced GNN configurations, and three more recent language-model backbones. Extensive experiments show that, despite their utility improvements, LLM-enhanced GNNs consistently exhibit greater empirical privacy vulnerability than shallow text representation baselines under the evaluated attacks across diverse models and datasets. Further analysis shows that LLM-enhanced representations exhibit more distinguishable link-, label-, and membership-related signals in the embedding space, making them more exploitable by inference attacks. Finally, we evaluate representative defenses and examine their effectiveness in mitigating these privacy risks. Overall, this work provides a systematic audit of privacy risks in LLM-enhanced GNNs and offers insights for developing more secure and trustworthy graph learning systems.

Effective long-range propagation remains a central challenge in graph neural networks, as increasing a model's propagation depth does not guarantee that distant nodes effectively influence each other. Sheaf neural networks enrich graph propagation through matrix-valued transport between stalks; still, this expressivity alone does not automatically imply effective long-range communication. We introduce ONDA, a long-range graph learning framework based on operator-valued information waves. Stalk-valued representations evolve through second-order dynamics governed by learned sheaf transport operators, combining wave-like propagation with expressive local geometry. We characterize long-range influence through a stalk-wise sensitivity analysis and show that the cross-influence never vanishes. Across long-range propagation, severe graph bottlenecks, graph transfer, and heterophilic benchmarks, ONDA consistently improves over scalar wave propagation, diffusive sheaf baselines, and state-of-the-art models, demonstrating the benefit of coupling wave dynamics with matrix-valued transport.

Hyperspectral remote sensing has advanced across diverse deep learning paradigms, including spectral spatial CNNs, Vision Transformers, Mamba, graph neural networks, Kolmogorov Arnold networks, and self supervised masked autoencoding. Yet progress remains hindered by fragmented repositories, incompatible tensor conventions, and non standardized evaluation. Hyperspectral Image Models addresses these challenges through a modular framework unifying 55 representative models across six paradigms with a common registry, automatic 4D/5D tensor adaptation, and standardized constructors. It integrates 24 benchmark scenes from Airborne, Spaceborne, UAV, and Mars CRISM sensors, with caching, label remapping, PCA, explicit band selection or raw spectra, optional spatial max pooling, and arbitrary PxP patch extraction. To prevent inflated accuracy from overlapping windows, it supports class balanced random partitioning and spatially disjoint regional blocking with Chebyshev guard bands that eliminate train test pixel overlap. Experiments use a single config with deterministic seeds and complete provenance, generating LaTeX benchmark tables and classification maps. Across 1,320 model scene evaluations and 6,600 seeded runs, scene difficulty dominates architecture, with mean accuracy ranging from 96.40% on Botswana to 56.70% on Houston 2018, versus a 15 point spread across paradigm means. No paradigm universally dominates, while sub 1 M parameter models can match architectures two orders of magnitude larger. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Tanishq251/Hyperspectral-Image-Models.

Documentation and benchmark library for hyperspectral image models

Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems. Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have recently achieved strong performance in point forecasting by jointly modeling temporal dynamics and relational dependencies across interconnected energy nodes. However, in real-world energy systems, accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient, as operators also require reliable uncertainty estimates to support risk-aware decision-making, grid stability, and operational planning under uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides a principled and model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification under exchangeability assumptions, making it particularly attractive for safety-critical energy applications. However, existing conformal prediction approaches often fail to fully capture the complex spatial-temporal structure of energy systems. To address these limitations, we propose STOIC (Spatial-Temporal uncertainty quantificatiOn via In-Context learning), a conformal-inspired post-hoc residual calibration framework that integrates graph-based forecasting with the in-context learning capabilities of tabular foundation models. STOIC first generates point forecasts using an STGNN and subsequently reformulates spatial-temporal residuals into a tabular representation suitable for in-context learning. Leveraging a tabular foundation model, STOIC estimates feature-conditional residual quantiles without task-specific retraining of the calibration model, effectively capturing both sequential and relational dependencies. STOIC should be viewed as a conformal-inspired residual calibration method and does not by itself provide a finite-sample distribution-free coverage guarantee under arbitrary temporal dependence...

Accepted to Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR)

As AI models grow more complex, explainability is essential for building trust, yet concept-based counterfactual methods still face a trade-off between expressivity and efficiency. Representing underlying concepts as atomic sets is fast but misses relational context, whereas full graph representations are more faithful but require solving the NP-hard Graph Edit Distance (GED) problem. We propose U-CECE, a unified, model-agnostic multi-resolution framework for conceptual counterfactual explanations that adapts to data regime and compute budget. U-CECE spans three levels of expressivity: atomic concepts for broad explanations, relational sets-of-sets for simple interactions, and structural graphs for full semantic structure. At the structural level, both a precision-οriented transductive mode based on supervised Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and a scalable inductive mode based on unsupervised graph autoencoders (GAEs) are supported. Experiments on the structurally divergent CUB and Visual Genome datasets characterize the efficiency-expressivity trade-off across levels, while human surveys and LVLM-based evaluation show that, on CUB, the retrieved structural counterfactuals are frequently judged semantically equivalent to, and often preferred over, reference deterministic GED-based explanations.

In recent years, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and architecture search frameworks have gained extensive application in non-Euclidean data processing, attributable to their superior capacity in managing unstructured data. Nevertheless, traditional approaches typically apply uniform convolution operations to all nodes, regardless of their varying structural and feature characteristics, which can undermine model performance and result in over-smoothing issues as the number of layers increases. To overcome this limitation, in this work, we propose a \textbf{N}ode-Level \textbf{G}raph \textbf{N}eural \textbf{A}rchitecture \textbf{S}earch (N-GNAS) algorithm. It can automatically choose an appropriate network architecture for each subset of nodes when updating node features. N-GNAS also introduces a contrastive learning loss to separate sample features from different categories and vice versa. In experiments conducted on eight datasets for node and graph classification, our methodology outperforms current leading GNAS techniques and traditional human-designed GNNs. For example, it achieves an accuracy rate of 78.26% on the CiteSeer dataset.

Sparse GNN training reduces computation, but deciding which edges to keep can be costly. Reusing one sparse graph is cheap, but locks training to a fixed topology, while varying it across epochs can require repeated sampling or recomputation. We introduce EDiS (Edge-Disjoint Subgraph sparsification framework), which separates one-time structural extraction from per-epoch graph composition. EDiS decomposes the graph once into cacheable edge-disjoint subgraphs, then recombines them into graphs with edge-budget constraints across epochs and retention ratios without re-extracting structure. Our default construction uses feature-based scores and successive maximum score covering forests, while the same composition mechanism also supports alternative edge selection rules. We provide a combinatorial analysis of the per-epoch sampler, the composition step that draws a training graph from the cached decomposition. We show that, under the default covering-forest selector, the stored decomposition deterministically preserves high-score cut edges, and we derive a selector-agnostic conditional bound on high-score cut survival in composed training graphs. Across 19 homophilic, heterophilic, and large-scale node classification benchmarks against 17 baselines under the same edge budget, EDiS achieves the highest mean benchmark score (accuracy/ROC-AUC) and the lowest average rank and gap-to-best among ranked methods. Ablations show the clearest benefits of structural decomposition and epoch variation at tight edge budgets.

46 pages, including references and appendices

Multi-agent path planning (MAPP) in continuous environments often relies on roadmaps to balance safety and search efficiency. However, traditional roadmap generation methods, such as lattice grids or standard sampling-based approaches, frequently face a trade-off between graph density and the likelihood of finding feasible, high-quality solutions. In this paper, we propose a scalable heterogeneous Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework for the automated generation and evaluation of shared multi-agent roadmaps. Our model covers the representation of waypoints, agent locations, and task locations as distinct nodes in a heterogeneous graph, allowing it to reason over global connectivity and inter-agent interactions. By training on occupation density maps aggregated and collected from expert solver trajectories, the GNN learns to identify critical points of interest and prune redundant nodes and edges. This process produces a compact, coordination-aware roadmap that is invariant to task permutations and is reusable for multi-agent pick and delivery tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework can reduce planning effort and can potentially find better solutions, reaching at least 40% reduction in runtime and in graph size for dense roadmaps.

We introduce GridSFM, a framework that combines a pretrained foundation model across grid topologies with physics-informed fine-tuning for solving AC Optimal Power Flow (AC-OPF) at scale. It is a $15$ million parameter physics-inspired graph neural network pretrained across $54$ topologies of $500$ to $4{,}000$ buses. Our model attains a $2.45%$ zero-shot generation-cost error on a $10{,}000$ bus case held-out operating conditions with no degradation as system size grows. Building on this, we pair the pretrained backbone with a physics-informed fine-tuning design based on Newton's method for power flow. With only $100$ solved instances, GridSFM adapts to unseen grids up to $10{,}000$ buses. We show it out performs single topology, dedicated neural network models that are trained more data, both in terms of cost and solver iterations when deployed as warm starting points. In designing this foundation model, we overcome the fact that the feasible set for AC-OPF can be disconnected. This is an obstruction that prevents any continuous neural network from approximating the solution map. To do so, we lift the problem and relax its constraints with logarithmically penalized slacks. We prove that the resulting elastic feasible set is contractible, that the AC-OPF minimizers remain minimizers of the elastic problem above an explicit penalty threshold, and that projecting an approximate solution back onto the AC-OPF feasible set is well posed. We release all models, data, and code so that the community can build on a shared starting point for AC-OPF.

While graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown substantial promise in connectome-based diagnostic classification, deterministic models inevitably suppress pipeline-induced noise and model ambiguities, yielding overconfident predictions. Although uncertainty quantification (UQ) is widely adopted in voxel-level segmentation, its role in connectomic graph learning remains largely unaddressed. This paper presents a comprehensive narrative review of UQ frameworks tailored to connectome graph learning alongside an empirical case study demonstrating the perils of uncalibrated predictions. We delineate sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty across neuroimaging pipelines and review prominent UQ paradigms, from Bayesian approximations and ensemble methods to evidential learning and conformal prediction. In our case study, a temporal Graph Attention Network (GAT) trained on dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) matrices from the SUDMEX CONN dataset achieves 80.0% diagnostic accuracy (F1 = 0.794) for Cocaine Use Disorder. However, a post-hoc uncertainty audit via Monte Carlo dropout reveals severe overconfidence (ECE = 0.127), with misclassified subjects assigned prediction confidences up to 95%. This empirical divergence between discrimination and calibration underscores the confidence paradox in deep connectomics. Our findings establish that rigorous UQ, calibration, and selective prediction mechanisms are indispensable for deploying trustworthy graph-based biomarkers in clinical neuroscience.

The mechanical properties of a metallic alloy are set by its microstructure and texture: the size and shape of its grains and the orientation of their crystals. That structure is in turn set by a recipe, the alloy composition together with the processing parameters. Alloy development runs this chain forwards, tuning the structure until a target property is met. Running it backwards, from an optimized structure to the recipe that would produce it, still relies on expert knowledge. We ask whether this backwards step can be learned. On an in-house dataset of 107 magnesium alloy extrusion conditions across 14 alloys, each with optical micrographs and an X-ray texture measurement, we compare three descriptors of microstructure and texture: conventional grain and texture statistics, a vision embedding from a pretrained image encoder, and a graph neural network on the grain network. Each is paired with prediction heads for two tasks: the alloy composition given the process (Task A), and the process parameters given the composition (Task B). Under 5-fold cross-validation, the conventional descriptors identify the correct alloy for 65% of held-out conditions, against 17% for always guessing the most common alloy, while the learned embeddings stay below 30%. The process parameters are recoverable but noisier: compared with using the composition alone, the microstructure roughly halves the temperature error. Because only a few alloys were cast and only a few press settings were used, both answers are discrete, and heads that pick from these known options, while respecting their order, worked better than heads that predict a free value.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are routinely employed for spatiotemporal forecasting, yet their performance across widely used benchmark datasets is inconsistent. Here, we perform an audit of dataset properties and baseline models to assess the quality of the benchmarks, and the robustness of the conclusions drawn from them. Using classical statistical tools, we characterise spatiotemporal lagged dependencies in benchmarks, and examine how temporal differencing changes these relationships and affects model rankings. Motivated by this, we re-evaluate temporal linear baselines, significantly reducing the apparent gains from GNNs on several benchmarks, and surpassing GNNs on others. Suspecting that GNNs struggle to extract linear, node-wise signals, we find that supplying them with autoregressive residuals improves their performance particularly on non-traffic benchmarks. Finally, controlled synthetic experiments reveal that GNNs are sensitive to heterogeneity in temporal dynamics and spatial graph interactions. Together, our findings demonstrate that baseline specification, data pre-processing and system heterogeneity shape the interpretations drawn from benchmark rankings, informing the design and robust evaluation of GNNs.

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasting depends on local temporal persistence, regional spatial dependence, and environmental conditions that evolve with the forecast date. We study how these heterogeneous conditions can be presented to a large language model (LLM) for regional multi-step forecasting without serializing the full SST grid as text. We formulate forecasting as conditional numerical generation: historical SST and anomaly sequences, date-aligned environmental records, and static ocean knowledge form a textual context, while regional spatial state is supplied through continuous graph-derived prefixes. A static graph encodes persistent geographic--climatological relations, and a dynamic graph encodes recent SST correlations and localized tropical-cyclone influence. Two graph neural networks produce a target-node representation that is mapped by a spatial-prefix fusion and injected into the LLM input. On SST forecasting in the South China Sea, the complete configuration achieves the best MAE and $\Rtwo$ among the compared methods over ten forecast steps. Alongside the numerical forecast, a rule-based module matches predicted trends and environmental-factor directions with knowledge entries to return source-linked, post-hoc contextual explanations.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization remains challenging for graph neural networks (GNNs), as graph distributions can vary substantially across time and domains. Supervised and self-supervised graph representation learning are guided by distinct objectives and offer different perspectives on graph representations. In this work, we study whether self-supervised representations (SSL) can provide complementary signals to improve supervised OOD node classification. We develop two backbone-agnostic frameworks that exploit such information at different stages of learning and prediction. Co-Train jointly learns supervised and SSL representations and adaptively integrates them during training, while Dual-Space Retrieval performs non-parametric prediction in the two representation spaces and combines their predictions through confidence-aware fusion at inference time. The supervised and SSL encoders are separately parameterized and need not share the same GNN architecture. We evaluate multiple GNN backbones and two distinct SSL objectives, DGI and GRACE, on four graph benchmarks spanning temporal and cross-domain distribution shifts. Extensive experiments show that Co-Train consistently outperforms strong supervised OOD baselines, while Dual-Space Retrieval achieves competitive performance as a flexible non-parametric alternative. Results across different backbones and SSL objectives, together with representation analyses and ablations, demonstrate that SSL representations provide complementary information to supervised representations and can improve OOD node classification across diverse settings.

Two populations of graphs often have to be compared without any correspondence between their vertices, for instance when networks come from different communities, or when a graph generative model is evaluated against held-out graphs. We study how many graphs such an unaligned two-sample test needs, and which graph statistics can detect which differences. For an Erdős--Rényi null and a planted two-block difference that leaves every expected degree unchanged, we show that $m\asymp t^{-3}$ graphs per group are necessary and sufficient when the per-graph signal-to-noise ratio is $t&lt;1$. Signed triangle counts attain this rate, and the lower bound holds for every graph size. With aligned vertices $m\asymp t^{-1}$ graphs suffice, so misalignment costs a factor of order $t^{-2}$. When the triangle signal cancels, the rate becomes $t^{-4}$ and $4$-cycles are needed. Statistics built from trees have exactly the same expectation under both hypotheses, and tests based on finitely many of them have asymptotically no power. In the graphon limit, this class includes degree distributions and message-passing graph neural network features. For a non-constant null, a generic difference is visible at first order, and a simple motif test attains the aligned order of sample size, suggesting that misalignment is costly mainly for differences that are invisible at low orders. We also give an exactly valid test for one or two graphs per group, at a cost in power. In our simulations, the fitted exponents are close to the predicted ones, and degree-based and random-GNN evaluation metrics stay at their level in a setting where signed triangles need about $65$ graphs.

Neural algorithmic reasoning, or aligning a neural network with an algorithmic paradigm, has emerged as an approach to solving polynomial-time-solvable and computationally harder combinatorial optimization problems. We propose a new message-passing framework based on the Chambolle-Pock Primal--Dual Hybrid Gradient (PDHG) method called \textsc{GraphPDHG} for solving general graph saddle-point problems. Theoretically, we show that \textsc{GraphPDHG} can efficiently solve a family of graph saddle-point problems by simulating PDHG. We also show that our network can learn an accelerated PDHG algorithm. Experimentally, we support our results on accelerated PDHG by evaluating the performance of our model as a learned warm start for second-order optimization techniques (SSNAL). We also show that alignment with PDHG leads to stronger size generalization than non-aligned graph neural network (GNN) baselines. Overall, we propose a novel architecture for solving a general family of optimization problems on graphs.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) offer a rich representation for relational knowledge, but their irregular structure makes retrieval challenging: ego-graph expansion grows rapidly, and dense embedding methods struggle with multi-hop compositional queries. Several approaches use LLM agents to explore the KG, analyze candidate nodes, and decide where to explore next. While expressive, these approaches can incur substantial computational and memory costs. On the other hand, we show theoretically that dense embeddings precomputed for graph nodes, even with augmented structure and neighborhood-aware features, can require embedding dimensions comparable to the size of the graph to answer families of knowledge graph queries. This limitation can be overcome with query-adaptive embeddings under certain conditions, and there are graph neural network (GNN) variants that can do so. However, processing the whole graph with a GNN can also incur substantial memory and computational costs, and it requires dense ground-truth labels indicating whether each node answers the query. Straightforward $k$-hop selection around anchor nodes can also be problematic: small $k$ limits the nodes we can see, and even with small $k$ values such as three and four, the $k$-hop subgraph can grow substantially. In this work, we devise a new approach using Graph Transformers and reinforcement learning that is much less demanding in memory and computation, can run on a CPU at inference time as a first-stage retriever, and requires feedback on only a small number of nodes at a time during training. We show that this method is competitive with methods that fine-tune LLMs to retrieve information from KGs. We call our method SeedER (Seed-Expand-Retrieve), and position it primarily as a first-stage retriever that can run with modest computational resources.

Clinical questions often depend on linking a patient's multimodal evidence to external biomedical knowledge, yet existing predictive systems rarely represent such links explicitly, so they can neither be traced to their evidence sources nor removed to measure their contributions. We present MM-KG (Multimodal Knowledge Graph), which represents heterogeneous, multimodal patient observations and biomedical concepts as separate layers in one typed graph, joined by explicit alignment edges. First, modality-specific harmonizers convert EHR text, imaging, genomic, and biospecimen data into typed observations mapped to UMLS concepts, which a route-prioritized aligner links to a biomedical knowledge graph. Query-conditioned retrieval then selects a compact subgraph for downstream use by a large language model or a graph neural network. We build MM-KGs for MIMIC-IV and ADNI, and evaluate them with a 2x2 design that separates patient evidence, biomedical knowledge, and their interaction. On questions that require both sources, neither source alone performs far above chance, whereas their combination yields a drug-controlled AUROC interaction of +0.194 on MIMIC and +0.299 on ADNI. On held-out five-candidate ranking, MM-KG outperforms MindMap by +0.131 Hits@1 and leads an adapted GraphCare on the items that require consulting the patient, and deleting the single answer-bearing relation from the retrieved packet returns Hits@1 to the no-knowledge baseline. Finally, query-conditioned retrieval reaches 0.731 AUROC with 6.8x less context than the strongest generic policy, whereas static knowledge graph context gives no consistent gain on ordinary outcome prediction. Knowledge graphs thus benefit clinical LLMs not as background context but as explicit links between multimodal patient evidence and the relation a question requires, and MM-KG makes these links retrievable, traceable, and testable.

CoVariance Neural Networks and their extensions have emerged as effective tools for processing multivariate data, deriving graph shift operators directly from second-order statistics. These architectures, however, are designed for independent and identically distributed observations and do not fully capture the joint structure of temporal and cross-variable dependencies in multivariate time series. In this work, we introduce Inverse Cross-Spectral Neural Networks (iCSNNs), a class of graph neural networks for stationary multivariate time series whose shift operators are the inverse cross-spectral density (iCSD) matrices. These operators encode frequency-specific conditional relationships among variables, exploiting the decomposition provided by the spectral representation theorem. Leveraging spectral smoothness, frequencies are grouped into bands sharing a single iCSD operator, yielding a compact parametrisation that retains the frequency-dependent structure of the process. We further propose a joint learning procedure to estimate both the Fourier-domain dependence structure and the iCSNN parameters, adapting the iCSD operators to the downstream task. When tested on synthetic data, iCSNN outperforms baselines from different methodological families.

Cloud computing and DevOps have made microservices a common architecture for scalable, maintainable software systems. However, migrating monoliths to microservices remains challenging due to tight coupling and unclear service boundaries. Existing decomposition approaches typically rely on either structural dependencies or semantic similarity signals, but rarely integrate both within a unified representation learning objective. This paper proposes TripleBound, a hybrid framework for automated monolith-to-microservices decomposition that augments a heterogeneous graph neural network with weakly supervised triplet constraints derived from parser-inferred service groups based on package structure, naming conventions, and code location. TripleBound injects triplet-based constraints directly into the shared structural latent space, enabling both signals to be jointly optimized during representation learning. Structural dependencies are captured using CHGNN, which models the monolith as a heterogeneous graph with program nodes, resource nodes, CALL edges, and CRUD edges. Semantic relationships are incorporated through triplet constraints generated from parser-inferred service groups. Evaluation on AcmeAir, DayTrader, PlantsByWebSphere, and JPetStore shows that TripleBound achieves the highest composite decomposition score under the selected weighting on AcmeAir, DayTrader, and JPetStore compared to CHGNN and MonoEmbed, while CHGNN remains stronger on PlantsByWebSphere. Per-metric analysis reveals trade-offs: gains in structural modularity and inter-partition coupling are accompanied by higher entity distribution imbalance on some datasets. Alternative composite weightings preserve TripleBound's first-place ranking on AcmeAir and DayTrader but not on JPetStore, showing that the aggregate ranking is metric-dependent.

13 pages, 4 figures. Replication package available on GitHub

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a promising approach for placement optimization, particularly when combined with graph neural networks (GNNs) that capture circuit connectivity. However, most learning-based placement approaches focus on floorplanning, macro placement, or global placement, while detailed placement refinement remains relatively unexplored. In this paper, we present GPlaceRL, an open-source graph reinforcement learning framework for detailed placement refinement. GPlaceRL represents legalized placements as graphs and provides a modular environment for studying graph encoders, policy architectures, reward formulations, and local placement actions. To demonstrate the capabilities of GPlaceRL, we conduct a systematic evaluation of proximal policy optimization (PPO) policies with graph attention network (GAT) encoders in a per-design optimization setting. Across five placement benchmarks, the best greedy evaluation results achieve HPWL improvements ranging from $3.27%$ to $32.87%$. The results highlight the importance of compact GAT architectures and flexible local action spaces for placement optimization. Overall, GPlaceRL provides a reproducible and extensible framework for systematic research on RL-based detailed placement refinement.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are the standard tool for node representation learning and are increasingly used in high-stakes settings. Their message-passing backbone, however, can amplify topological bias, raising fairness concerns. We study group fairness at the level of downstream predictions for node classification, link prediction, and node regression, and bound the demographic parity gap for an arbitrary number of sensitive groups. Our node classification bound is provably no looser than the closest prior result. For link prediction, ours is the first bound on the parity gap of the deployed sigmoid-activated prediction rather than a pre-activation proxy, and for node regression we provide the first such bound. Across all three tasks, the analysis identifies two distinct sources of bias: the separation between group means and the within-group covariance of the final representations. Building on this insight, we embed fairness into propagation itself by augmenting the convex smoothing problem underlying APPNP with a convex group-mean constraint and a within-group covariance regularizer. Unfolding projected gradient descent on this problem yields FairProp, whose layers pair a propagation step with a closed-form projection and which provably converges linearly to the unique fair optimum. Experiments on three tasks show that FairProp, even with exact group-mean equalization alone, provides a strong inductive bias that achieves excellent fairness-utility trade-offs against strong baselines.

In deep graph neural networks, increasing depth enlarges the receptive field but often leads to over-smoothing, where node representations tend to align. We develop a unified, mode-wise stability framework for deep GNN propagation that provides a principled characterization of over-smoothing. By interpreting layer depth as time and layer updates as graph-coupled dynamics, over-smoothing can be understood as an undesirable dynamical synchronization of features, for which the master stability curve provides a theoretical tool to assess the stability of synchrony. Guided by this theory, we further propose Stability-Shaped Deep Graph Learning (SDGL) to mitigate over-smoothing in deep GNNs. SDGL has two complementary instantiations: one induces controlled Turing instability to replace synchronization with spatial pattern formation, and the other maintains stable near-critical propagation. Experiments on diverse node- and graph-level benchmarks demonstrate the improved depth scaling and consistent accuracy gains over strong baselines, including graphs exhibiting long-range dependencies.

Machine learning is increasingly used to accelerate materials discovery across large compositional and structural design spaces, but limited and heterogeneous data make reliable uncertainty estimation essential. In this work, we investigate uncertainty quantification for permanent magnet modeling across three complementary studies. First, on a public Curie temperature surrogate dataset, we benchmark Gaussian process regression, random forest bagging, and dropout-based Bayesian neural networks and show that calibration, sharpness, and confidence curve diagnostics reveal differences in uncertainty quality that are not visible from point-prediction metrics alone. Second, we transfer this framework to the prediction of intrinsic magnetic properties in Nd2 Fe14 B-based magnets. Third, we extend the same uncertainty-aware perspective to coercivity prediction from microstructural information using a graph neural network. Together, these studies show that uncertainty quantification improves the trustworthiness of magnetic material property predictions and can be transferred from composition-based surrogate models to more complex structure-sensitive learning tasks.

Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RISs) offer a promising paradigm to mitigate blockage and extend millimeter-wave coverage in 6G multi-cell networks. However, dynamically allocating shared RIS infrastructure across competing base stations is an NP-hard problem posing severe scalability bottlenecks. In this paper, we propose a scalable framework combining Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for dynamic shared RIS orchestration. By formulating allocation as a Markov Decision Process, we introduce a physical topology sparsification strategy that prunes dense channel matrices into a sparse tripartite graph. This pruning reduces edge density by 77% and removes representation noise, thereby improving global coverage probability while reducing computational complexity. Our relational message-passing architecture naturally generalizes to arbitrary network dimensions without model retraining. Furthermore, structural ablation studies reveal that physical path loss localizes surface dependencies, enabling a highly efficient localized graph design with linear computational scaling. Extensive simulations in dense urban environments demonstrate that under strict infrastructure budget constraints, the proposed GNN-DRL framework consistently outperforms greedy heuristic baselines by up to ~12% in coverage while delivering faster inference speed via GPU acceleration.

Although Answer Set Programming (ASP) allows constraining neural-symbolic (NeSy) systems, its employment is hindered by the prohibitive costs of computing stable models and the CPU-bound nature of state-of-the-art solvers. To this end, we propose Answer Set Networks (ASN), a NeSy solver. Based on Graph Neural Networks (GNN), ASNs are a scalable approach to ASP-based Deep Probabilistic Logic Programming (DPPL). Specifically, we show how to translate ASPs into ASNs and demonstrate how ASNs can efficiently solve the encoded problem by leveraging GPU's batching and parallelization capabilities. Our experimental evaluations demonstrate that ASNs outperform state-of-the-art CPU-bound NeSy systems on multiple tasks. Simultaneously, we make the following two contributions based on the strengths of ASNs. Namely, we are the first to show the finetuning of Large Language Models (LLM) with DPPLs, employing ASNs to guide the training with logic. Further, we show the "constitutional navigation" of drones, i.e., encoding public aviation laws in an ASN for routing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in uncertain environments.

Efficiently determining the satisfiability of a boolean equation -- known as the SAT problem for brevity -- is crucial in various industrial problems. Recently, the advent of deep learning methods has introduced significant potential for enhancing SAT solving. However, a major barrier to the advancement of this field has been the scarcity of large, realistic datasets. The majority of current public datasets are either randomly generated or extremely limited, containing only a few examples from unrelated problem families. These datasets are inadequate for meaningful training of deep learning methods. In light of this, researchers have started exploring generative techniques to create data that more accurately reflect SAT problems encountered in practical situations. These methods have so far suffered from either the inability to produce challenging SAT problems or time-scalability obstacles. In this paper we address both by identifying and manipulating the key contributors to a problem's ``hardness'', known as cores. Although some previous work has addressed cores, the time costs are unacceptably high due to the expense of traditional heuristic core detection techniques. We introduce a fast core detection procedure that uses a graph neural network. Our empirical results demonstrate that we can efficiently generate problems that remain hard to solve and retain key attributes of the original example problems. We show via experiment that the generated synthetic SAT problems can be used in a data augmentation setting to provide improved prediction of solver runtimes.

Driver fatigue poses a significant challenge to railway safety, with traditional systems like the dead-man switch offering limited and basic alertness checks. This study presents a vision-based monitoring system that relies solely on a single front-facing RGB camera and a graph neural network to classify simulated train-driver states into alert, not-alert, and an emergency class comprising acted emergency-like behaviours. To optimize input representations for the model, an ablation study was performed, comparing three feature configurations: skeletal-only, facial-only, and a combination of both. Experimental results show that combining facial and skeletal features yields the highest accuracy (81%) for the three-class model under the light condition, outperforming models that use only facial or skeletal features. Furthermore, the combination of facial and skeletal features achieves 99% accuracy in the alert/not alert classification in light condition. Additionally, we introduced a controlled RGB video dataset containing alert, not alert, and acted emergency-like behaviours recorded under three illumination conditions. These contributions represent a step toward passive and non-contact train-driver state recognition based on facial and upper-body dynamics.

Exploiting meaningful latent structures from data to solve downstream tasks is a fundamental challenge in signal processing and machine learning. While Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and coVariance Neural Networks (VNNs) successfully leverage the covariance matrix to process data, they inherently capture both direct and indirect correlations. The precision matrix (inverse covariance) overcomes this by explicitly encoding conditional independencies, making it largely studied in graphical lasso and graph topology identification. However, finite-sample precision estimates are notoriously unstable, and regularized estimators remain task-agnostic. In this work, our principal contribution is tackling the challenging problem of task-aware graph inference. We propose Precision Neural Networks-Joint (PNN-Joint), a framework that jointly estimates a sparse, statistically grounded precision matrix alongside graph neural network weights via an alternating optimization scheme. As a foundational framework to support this, we introduce Precision Neural Networks (PNNs), a broader class of graph convolutional networks operating on precision estimators, and establish their spectral connections to PCA and VNNs alongside their stability to finite-sample errors. Extensive empirical evaluations on synthetic data, as well as real-world neuroimaging and motion sensor datasets, demonstrate that PNN-Joint yields highly interpretable task-aware graphs, exhibits remarkable robustness in low-data regimes, and consistently achieves the best or second-best performance among competitors on real-world tasks.

Physics-informed graph neural networks (PIGNNs) have emerged as fast AC power-flow solvers that can replace the classic NewtonRaphson (NR) solvers, especially when thousands of scenarios must be evaluated. However, current PIGNNs still need accuracy improvements at parity speed; in particular, the soft constraint on the physics loss is inoperative at inference, which can deter operational adoption. We address this with PIGNN-Attn-LS, combining an edge-aware attention mechanism that explicitly encodes line physics via per-edge biases to form a fully differentiable knownoperator layer inside the computation graph, with a backtracking line-search-based globalized correction operator that restores an operative decrease criterion at inference. Training and testing use a realistic High-/Medium-Voltage scenario generator, with NR used only to construct reference states. On held-out HV cases consisting of 4-32-bus grids, PIGNN-Attn-LS achieves a test RMSE of 0.00033 p.u. in voltage and 0.08 deg in angle, outperforming the PIGNN-MLP baseline by 99.5% and 87.1%, respectively. With streaming micro-batches, it delivers 2-5x faster batched inference than NR on 4-1024-bus grids.

Published in ICASSP 2026. 5 pages, 2 figures. Code available at https://github.com/Kimchangheon/PIGNN-Attn-LS

Scalable Graph Transformers are commonly trained and evaluated on static large graphs in a transductive setup. Many scalable Graph Transformer components can be formulated as a constant-size shared memory, similar to virtual nodes, providing compressed information about the whole graph. The counterpart of these models in language models and other domains is justified as the input changes, and this mechanism learns to compress some useful information about the input. In transductive learning on a single fixed graph, however, any shared memory can be seen as a constant at test time. This raises the question of what exactly this shared memory does in this static setup. We give preliminary evidence that optimizing a shared memory directly performs similarly to global communication methods, and so normal local message-passing models can embed similar information in their weights. Thus, these settings may be a poor fit for evaluating global communication in graph neural networks.

Collaborative filtering (CF) models based on graph neural networks (GNNs) achieve strong performance in recommender systems by propagating user-item signals over interaction graphs. However, they are susceptible to popularity bias, since skewed interactions and repeated message passing across high-order neighborhoods amplify the influence of popular items while suppressing long-tail ones. Existing debiasing approaches, including re-weighting objectives, regularization, causal methods, and post-processing, are less effective in GNN-based settings because they do not directly counteract bias propagated through the aggregation process, and recent in-aggregation weighting methods often rely on static heuristics or unstable embedding estimates. We propose Debiasing Popularity Amplification in Aggregation (DPAA), a popularity debiasing framework for GNN-based CF that integrates adaptive, representation-aware interaction weighting and layer-wise weighting directly into message passing. DPAA assigns interaction-level weights from a representation-based popularity signal, stabilized by a smooth transition from pre-trained to evolving model embeddings during training. It further introduces a layer-wise weighting that amplifies higher-order neighborhoods, surfacing long-range interactions with diverse and underexposed items. Experiments on real-world and semi-synthetic datasets show that DPAA outperforms state-of-the-art popularity bias correction methods for GNN-based CF.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on coding and reasoning benchmarks; however, their ability to solve graph-structured machine learning problems remains largely unexplored. In particular, no benchmark currently evaluates whether LLMs can autonomously solve end-to-end Graph Neural Network (GNN) coding tasks under realistic competition settings. To address this gap, this paper introduces GNN-CB, the first competition-based benchmark for evaluating both humans and LLMs on GNN coding tasks. GNN-CB consists of 18 curated competitions spanning node-, edge-, and graph-level prediction across diverse graph categories, domains, and difficulty tiers. All submissions are evaluated through a unified automated pipeline with hidden test sets and standardized scoring. Human participants solve tasks under controlled competition constraints, while LLMs are evaluated using a frozen zero-shot prompting protocol based on a plan-then-code paradigm with bounded execute-and-repair loops. The benchmark additionally supports both non-agent and autonomous agent-based evaluation within the same protocol. Under our evaluated protocol, LLMs rarely match Human Top performance and show less stable performance across competitions. No single model dominates: a few competitions are won by LLMs, yet humans still hold the top score on most tasks. We release GNN-CB as a living benchmark with automated evaluation infrastructure, dynamic leaderboards, and reproducible execution pipelines. Beyond benchmarking, GNN-CB provides a practice-oriented resource for studying GNN implementation across progressively diverse graph-learning tasks. The benchmark and evaluation framework are publicly available at https://basiralab.github.io/GNN-CB/.

Accepted at EMNLP 2026. 28 pages, 16 figures, 4 tables. Benchmark and leaderboards: https://basiralab.github.io/GNN-CB/

Most graph neural networks (GNNs) use the message passing paradigm, in which node features are propagated on the input graph. Recent works pointed to the distortion of information flowing from distant nodes as a factor limiting the efficiency of message passing for tasks relying on long-distance interactions. This phenomenon, referred to as 'over-squashing', has been heuristically attributed to graph bottlenecks where the number of $k$-hop neighbors grows rapidly with $k$. We provide a precise description of the over-squashing phenomenon in GNNs and analyze how it arises from bottlenecks in the graph. For this purpose, we introduce a new edge-based combinatorial curvature and prove that negatively curved edges are responsible for the over-squashing issue. We also propose and experimentally test a curvature-based graph rewiring method to alleviate the over-squashing.

Published at ICLR 2022 (Outstanding Paper Honourable Mention); 30 pages. v2: corrected Corollary 3 and rephrased in terms of graph diameter. Any other result is unaffected

With the rapid growth of graph-structured data in critical domains, unsupervised graph-level anomaly detection (UGAD) has become a pivotal task. UGAD seeks to identify entire graphs that deviate from normal behavioral patterns. However, most Graph Neural Network (GNN) approaches implicitly assume that the training set is clean, containing only normal graphs, which is rarely true in practice. Even modest contamination by anomalous graphs can distort learned representations and sharply degrade performance. To address this challenge, we propose DeNoise, a robust UGAD framework explicitly designed for contaminated training data. It jointly optimizes a graph-level encoder, an attribute decoder, and a structure decoder via an adversarial objective to learn noise-resistant embeddings. Further, DeNoise introduces an encoder anchor-alignment denoising mechanism that fuses high-information node embeddings from normal graphs into all graph embeddings, improving representation quality while suppressing anomaly interference. A contrastive learning component then compacts normal graph embeddings and repels anomalous ones in the latent space. Extensive experiments on eight real-world datasets demonstrate that DeNoise consistently learns reliable graph-level representations under varying noise intensities and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art UGAD baselines.

Withdrawn by the authors because issues were identified in the original data and experimental evaluation, requiring substantial revisions that affect the reported results and conclusions.

Molecular property prediction is central to computational drug discovery, where graph neural networks learn to weight neighboring atomic environments during message passing. Yet it remains unclear how variational quantum circuits alter learned attention behavior in molecular graphs. We introduce an edge-aware variational quantum attention mechanism for molecular graph learning, in which the receiving atom, neighboring atom, and connecting bond jointly determine the quantum attention state. Across five molecular property and bioactivity prediction tasks, QGAT achieves competitive performance relative to GATv2, with a consistent improvement on BBBP across all six evaluated circuit ansatzes. We further compare how the quantum and classical attention scores weight molecular structure beyond accuracy. In the Verubecestat BACE1 inhibitor series, QGAT achieves a higher Spearman correlation than GATv2 and assigns positive attributions to several structural changes consistent with reported structure-activity relationships (SARs). This case study shows that the two attention mechanisms can exhibit different prediction and attribution behavior across structurally related BACE1 analogues, while broader validation is required to determine how consistently these differences generalize across chemical series and targets. Circuit ablations further show that performance depends on the circuit design. Together, these results show that variational quantum attention can serve as a viable alternative molecular attention parameterization while inducing circuit- and chemistry-dependent behavior distinct from a matched classical scorer.

Sheaf diffusion has recently emerged as a promising design pattern for graph representation learning due to its inherent ability to handle heterophilic data and avoid oversmoothing. Meanwhile, cooperative message passing has also been proposed as a way to enhance the flexibility of information diffusion by allowing nodes to independently choose whether to propagate/gather information from/to neighbors. A natural question ensues: is sheaf diffusion capable of exhibiting this cooperative behavior? Here, we provide a negative answer to this question. In particular, we show that existing sheaf diffusion methods fail to achieve cooperative behavior due to the lack of message directionality. To circumvent this limitation, we introduce the notion of cellular sheaves over directed graphs and characterize their in- and out-degree Laplacians. We leverage our construction to propose Cooperative Sheaf Neural Networks (CSNNs). Theoretically, we characterize the receptive field of CSNN and show it allows nodes to selectively attend (listen) to arbitrarily far nodes while ignoring all others in their path, potentially mitigating oversquashing. Our experiments show that CSNN presents overall better performance compared to prior art on sheaf diffusion as well as cooperative graph neural networks.

Accepted to ICLR 2026

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) often struggle to capture long-range dependencies due to over-squashing -- a phenomenon in which the repeated compression of node embeddings into finite-size messages causes representations to collapse. Over-squashing is most often diagnosed as a property of the graph topology, with effective resistance serving as a principled measure of the bottleneck. We provide a complementary view on the matter: building on cellular sheaves, we introduce sheaf effective resistance, a generalization of effective resistance that depends on the sheaf attached to the graph, and we prove that for flat vector bundles, the over-squashing sensitivity in the Jacobian sense is upper bounded by a quantity related to the sheaf effective resistance between the nodes. The bottleneck thus need not lie in the graph itself: it can be relocated, and reduced, by adjusting the sheaf. We instantiate this idea in FlatNSD, a simple message-passing variant of Neural Sheaf Diffusion, and show that it implicitly learns to modulate total sheaf effective resistance, performing well on benchmarks designed to stress over-squashing without altering the original graph topology.

Accepted to NeurIPS 2026

The spectral properties of feature embeddings offer critical insights into model generalization and representation quality. While deep learning models are widely used for molecular property prediction, kernel methods remain competitive in low-data regimes, yet their spectral behavior is largely unexplored. We present the first comprehensive spectral analysis of kernel ridge regression across diverse representations, including molecular fingerprints (ECFP), pretrained transformers, graph neural networks, and 3D descriptors, evaluated on QM9, MoleculeNet, and Therapeutics Data Commons benchmarks. Surprisingly, richer spectral features do not consistently yield better generalization performance, contradicting common representation heuristics used in self-supervised learning (SSL). Across four spectral metrics, only ECFP-based kernels show a strictly positive correlation with performance, particularly SSE, ID, and SR on MoleculeNet. Global 3D representations exhibit mixed behavior; transformer-based representations are consistently positive across all four metrics, whereas local 3D representations show a negative trend and no significant correlations. Truncation analysis further emphasizes this disparity: for local 3D representations on thermodynamic targets, fewer than 2% of eigenvalues, and occasionally as few as 0.02%, are needed to recover 95% of performance, whereas ECFP and transformer kernels require significantly more. By demonstrating a strong dependence on both task and representation, our results challenge the heuristic that richer spectra inherently improve generalization, providing new guidance for evaluating representations in SSL and in label-limited scientific tasks.

12 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, SI: 18 pages, 10 figures, 9 Tables

Information and infectious diseases spread through social networks, but the spreading probabilities driving them are hard to estimate without per-node activation times. Applications seldom supply these, and inference must instead proceed through indirect and noisy proxies for the terminal infection states. We study this inverse problem on a fixed, known graph under the Hidden Independent Cascade (HIC) model, with one spreading probability per node rather than a single global rate, so the number of unknowns scales with the number of nodes. Seed sets and observation parameters are known, while activation times and terminal infection states are latent, and the observed-data likelihood requires marginalizing over every spreading outcome. We propose a simulation-based amortized estimator that recovers the full node-level parameter vector without reconstructing individual latent cascades. Repeated seed-conditioned symptom observations are summarized as Symptom-Aware Cascade Features (SACF), which combine empirical symptom statistics with neighborhood and structural information. SACF are mapped to parameters by SAGE-HC, a permutation-equivariant gated graph neural network whose learned gates attenuate neighborhood messages corrupted by false positives and false negatives, and training on simulated HIC realizations yields a reusable inverse map. As a benchmark under the same hidden observations, we extend the Dynamic Message Passing learning framework to the HIC emission model. On synthetic and empirical graphs the two methods separate by topology. DMP is highly accurate on trees, whereas SAGE-HC is substantially better on heterogeneous, loopy graphs under noisy terminal symptoms.

Explainers for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are commonly evaluated by their plausibility, i.e., how well their explanations recover a predefined ground truth, such as a motif planted in the data. This protocol implicitly assumes that a GNN trained on such data relies on the intended motif. Although prior work has questioned this assumption, plausibility remains widespread. First, we show that the assumption is violated on several widely used benchmarks, where, e.g., degree statistics alone suffice to solve the task. Then, we remove this confounder by replacing training with compilation. We achieve this by introducing $\mathsf{Gracr}$, the first compiler translating graded modal logic formulas into GNN weights, yielding models that replicate the behaviour of the corresponding formulas. Since the behaviour of the model is now known by construction, we can define its ground truth explanation formally and compute it exactly. Building on this, we introduce $\mathsf{Gracr}\mathsf{Bench}$, a benchmark of compiled GNNs for the evaluation of explainers against this exact ground truth. Experiments on eleven explainers across six tasks show its effectiveness for fine-grained diagnostic evaluation: notably, we discover that most explainers are not robust to indirect influences or alternative implementations of the same formula. These results position $\mathsf{Gracr}\mathsf{Bench}$ as a novel, rigorous evaluation setting for graph post-hoc explainability.

This paper introduces PEACE, the first joint embedding of audio effect code and output audio. Building on SLAP's multimodal objective, we pair an AFx-Rep audio encoder with two code encoders for Faust, a functional language for audio signal processing. First, we evaluate a fine-tuned T5 transformer over Faust source code. Second, we evaluate a message-passing graph neural network over an intermediate representation of the Faust compiler, capturing both topology and UI parameters. We evaluate on audio-to-code retrieval, where masking UI parameters at inference yields embeddings that encode effect chain topology alone. When parameters are visible, the two code encoders tie on retrieval of mixed-length chains but have tradeoffs on single-effect galleries. With parameters fully masked, PEACE recovers ordered chain topology far above chance without the limitations of supervised methods. PEACE outperforms pretrained models on an out-of-distribution reverb retrieval benchmark and can improve frozen audio-only representations. Its dual understanding of topology and parameters lays the groundwork for music information retrieval systems that search, generate, and condition on DSP code.

Accepted at ISMIR 2026. 10 pages, 4 tables, 3 figures. This arXiv version contains minor corrections and clarifications relative to the camera-ready version

Dynamic graph representation learning requires capturing both structural relations and temporal evolution, yet existing approaches face a core trade-off: attention-based methods offer expressiveness at O(T^2) complexity, while recurrent architectures suffer from gradient pathologies and dense state storage. Spiking neural networks provide event-driven efficiency but are constrained by sequential propagation, binary information loss, and local aggregation that lacks global context. We propose ChronoSpike, an adaptive spiking graph neural network that integrates learnable LIF neurons with per-channel membrane dynamics, multi-head spatially-attentive aggregation over continuous features, and a lightweight Transformer temporal encoder. This design enables fine-grained local modeling and long-range dependency capture with O(T.d) activation/state memory and an additional O(T^2) per-node attention term that remains small for the horizons evaluated here. ChronoSpike outperforms twelve state-of-the-art baselines on three large benchmarks by 2.0%~Macro-F1 and 2.4%~Micro-F1 on average while achieving 3-10 times faster training than recurrent methods with a constant 105K-parameter budget independent of graph size. We provide theoretical guarantees for membrane potential boundedness, gradient flow stability under contraction factor \r{ho}<1, and BIBO stability; interpretability analyses reveal heterogeneous temporal receptive fields and a learned primacy effect with 83-88% sparsity. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Abrar2652/ChronoSpike

Accepted at the Fifth Learning on Graphs Conference (LoG 2026)

Implicit Graph Neural Networks (IGNNs) define node representations as fixed points of graph neural operators, enabling effectively infinite-depth propagation, iteration-independent parameterization, and flexible test-time computation. Yet these benefits depend on the equilibrium being unique and reached by fixed-point iteration. Existing constructions often impose constraints on recurrent updates to obtain these guarantees, limiting the transformations available at equilibrium. This raises a central question: can IGNNs gain expressiveness through richer, edge-dependent transformations while retaining the inherent strengths of their equilibrium formulation? We introduce SheafDEQ, a subhomogeneous deep-equilibrium architecture with adaptive neural-sheaf propagation. Its learned, matrix-valued sheaf restriction maps can align, mix, or reverse neighbouring representations. Under mild regularity conditions, we prove that SheafDEQ admits a unique equilibrium reached globally by fixed-point iteration from any positive initial state. Contractivity further guarantees convergence under bounded communication staleness. We evaluate SheafDEQ on distributed-inference tasks requiring repeated nonlocal aggregation and on community detection whose rewiring increasingly favours cross-community interactions. SheafDEQ improves over implicit baselines on Sums, MNIST Terrain, and Coordinates, and on community detection as connectivity becomes increasingly heterophilic. SheafDEQ remains competitive with recurrent models without equilibrium guarantees. Continued-iteration diagnostics show decreasing residuals and retained test accuracy through 100 iterations, unlike the finite-horizon control, while delayed-update experiments show low sensitivity to bounded communication staleness.

Accepted at the 5th Learning on Graphs Conference (LoG 2026)

Protein function annotation needs to know which predictions to distrust, not only what a model predicts. We ask whether tissue-specific interaction structure carries that information. Our candidate signal is effective resistance, used previously to relieve over-squashing by rewiring. Across 24 tissue-specific interactomes it is dominated by inverse degree, and the degeneration deepens as the co-expression filtered network grows, with a Spearman correlation of -0.955. The residual departure from that limit exceeds degree-preserving null graphs in all 24 networks. Controlling for predictive entropy, degree, annotation cardinality, local structure and feature-only difficulty, the residual explains additional per-node loss in 19 of 24 held-out networks once a permutation floor is subtracted, at every depth, and the effect strengthens monotonically with depth. The increment reaches 0.37% of the variance the controls leave unexplained, 5.6 times a permutation floor, against 1.5 times when the model is retrained in a degree-preserving null world. Selective prediction improves negligibly. The signal is reproducible; degree degeneration bounds it.

Accepted at IEEE BIBM (Doctoral Forum)

Many real-world systems exhibit higher-order interactions among groups of entities that cannot be captured by pairwise relationships alone. Graph Transformers and Graph Neural Networks increasingly rely on positional encodings to enrich graph representations, yet existing positional encodings are computed solely from the original graph and therefore cannot directly capture observed higher-order interactions. Topological Deep Learning addresses this limitation by lifting graphs to simplicial complexes, but typically requires performing message passing or attention on higher-order neural network representations. We introduce a representation learning paradigm that enriches graph representations with higher-order topology through positional encodings, enabling standard graph learning models to exploit lifted incidence structure without modifying the backbone. We derive a theoretical characterization of the expressivity of higher-order positional encodings, proving that node-level operators induced by higher-order lifts can mix graph Laplacian frequencies in ways that scalar graph spectral filters cannot. Guided by this theory, we instantiate higher-order positional encodings using Hodge Laplacians derived from clique complexes. Experiments with Graph Transformers on ZINC and controlled synthetic benchmarks demonstrate improvements in predictive performance, while a fixed-1-skeleton experiment shows that the pipeline can transmit higher-order information when cells are supplied independently of the graph. Together, our results establish higher-order positional encodings as a principled bridge between graph positional encodings and topological deep learning.

Accepted at the Fifth Learning on Graphs Conference (LoG 2026)

Graph Neural Networks and Graph Transformers have become central to graph learning, combining expressive representation learning with sample-efficient inductive biases. Yet they remain fundamentally limited when predictions depend on correlations between distant graph regions. We address this limitation with Graph Hierarchical Recurrence (GHR), a novel framework that jointly operates on the input graph and a pooled hierarchical abstraction. We also show that existing models degrade more sharply under out-of-range generalization, where test instances require interactions across distances exceeding those observed during training. Despite its minimal design, GHR consistently strengthens every tested message-passing backbone, yielding robust performance on long-range dependencies and particularly pronounced gains in out-of-range regimes. Across a broad suite of long-range benchmarks, GHR achieves state-of-the-art or competitive results on multiple tasks, establishing hierarchical recurrence as an effective mechanism for extending graph models beyond their observed interaction range.

Modelling interactions is critical in learning complex dynamical systems, namely systems of interacting objects with highly non-linear and time-dependent behaviour. A large class of such systems can be formalized as $\textit{geometric graphs}$, $\textit{i.e.}$, graphs with nodes positioned in the Euclidean space given an $\textit{arbitrarily}$ chosen global coordinate system, for instance vehicles in a traffic scene. Notwithstanding the arbitrary global coordinate system, the governing dynamics of the respective dynamical systems are invariant to rotations and translations, also known as $\textit{Galilean invariance}$. As ignoring these invariances leads to worse generalization, in this work we propose local coordinate frames per node-object to induce roto-translation invariance to the geometric graph of the interacting dynamical system. Further, the local coordinate frames allow for a natural definition of anisotropic filtering in graph neural networks. Experiments in traffic scenes, 3D motion capture, and colliding particles demonstrate that the proposed approach comfortably outperforms the recent state-of-the-art.

In NeurIPS 2021. Source code: https://github.com/mkofinas/locs

Equivariant graph neural networks provide a principled way to model geometric systems, but efficient first-order architectures remain limited in how vector information can be transformed as it moves across a graph. We introduce \textsc{ESNN}, an Equivariant Sheaf Neural Network that enriches this interaction by learning directed, matrix-valued transport between neighboring vector features while preserving exact Euclidean equivariance. Rather than increasing the order of the representation, ESNN keeps scalar and vector features first-order and places the additional geometric flexibility in the edge transport itself. We characterize this transport theoretically, showing that when relative displacement is the only covariant geometric input, every linear $O(n)$-equivariant map decomposes into independent radial and tangential components, while learned covariant features enable richer feature-conditioned transformations. We also introduce controlled symmetry relaxation for systems with a preferred ambient direction, which may be prescribed or inferred from data while recovering full $E(n)$-equivariance when the directional pathway is inactive. Across particle dynamics, mesh-based simulation, point-cloud classification, and molecular property prediction, ESNN improves dynamics prediction, recovers the gravity axis when symmetry is broken, yields substantial gains on selected mesh tasks and long-horizon rollouts, and remains robust to unseen rotations. These results show that learning how geometric information is transported across edges offers a complementary route to expressive equivariant message passing without requiring higher-order representations.

Detecting 3D keypoints is a long-standing challenge in computer vision. Most detectors end with a heuristic post-processing step that is not learned. We propose a 3D keypoint detector that improves on this step with a learned suppression module, paired with a Point Transformer backbone that we extend with a directional graph neural network. The module is a graph network over candidates that learns which to keep, which to suppress, and how to relocate the remaining ones. Paired with three backbones, it improves over DBSCAN and greedy non-maximum suppression, and because it operates on candidate features rather than raw geometry, the same formulation applies to both structural and semantic keypoints. Our model surpasses the per-category trained KeypointDETR on 12 of 16 KeypointNet categories, attains the best Corner F1 on the Building3D Entry-Level benchmark, and remains competitive with BWFormer on the larger Tallinn split. GitHub implementation: https://github.com/cansdev/learned-suppression-3d.

Accepted to ACCV 2026. 17 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables

Patient-level lung ultrasound (LUS) diagnosis requires integrating findings acquired across multiple anatomical zones, yet clinical examinations frequently involve variable and incomplete scanning protocols with missing zones. Existing diagnostic AI methods primarily analyze individual frames or video loops, relying on heuristic aggregation strategies such as max or mean pooling that ignore inter-zone relationships for patient-level inference. This paper presents ZAGNet, a Zone- Aware Graph Neural Network that represents temporally tracked pathology findings as graph nodes connected by anatomical zone adjacency. A graph transformer network propagates contextual information across neighboring lung regions, while a virtual global node aggregates graph-level features to predict patientlevel consolidation and pleural effusion using only patient-level supervision. ZAGNet accommodates missing zones by computing on a graph structure without fixed input format or size. We evaluate ZAGNet on a multicenter dataset of 714 subjects (20,256 LUS video loops) with exams varying from 4 to 16 zones across anterior, posterior, and lateral thoracic regions. For consolidation diagnosis, ZAGNet achieved an AUC of 0.803 compared to 0.677 (max pooling) and 0.674 (mean pooling). For pleural effusion, AUC increased to 0.893 from 0.804 (max pooling) and 0.815 (mean pooling). These represent improvements of up to 19% and 11% for consolidation and pleural effusion respectively. The results demonstrate that graph-based inter-zone reasoning provides an effective and clinically consistent framework for automated patient-level LUS assessment.

The 2026 IEEE International Ultrasonics Symposium (IUS)

Signed graphs arise in trust--distrust networks, financial correlation systems, biological interaction graphs, and many other domains in which edges can be positive or negative and may also be directed. While signed graph neural networks have improved task-specific learning, graph transfer learning on signed graphs remains underdeveloped. In this paper, we introduce TopoSIGN, a pioneer topology-guided graph pre-training and prompt learning framework for signed graphs. TopoSIGN combines a structural encoder built on the magnetic signed Laplacian with a novel persistent-homology branch that summarizes signed topology through Dowker-complex persistence images. The fused embeddings are then transferred to a prompt learning function. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the efficacy of TopoSIGN in extracting useful structural information in signed graphs, as well as the adaptability and flexibility of the proposed general framework.

26 pages, 3 figures, Accepted to Learning on Graphs Conference (LoG 2026)

Mixed-integer linear programs (MILP) model many real-world decision problems, motivating machine-learning methods that exploit recurring structure to accelerate MILP solving. MILPs can admit many equivalent formulations: integrality-preserving changes of variables and the addition of redundant constraints can alter their formulations while preserving the optimization problem. We leverage these reformulations as a source of self-supervision for learning general-purpose representations of MILP variables and constraints. We characterize the affine reformulations that are valid for every input instance, and distinguish re-descriptions, which leave variables unchanged, from substitutions, which transform them predictably. Building on equivariant self-supervised learning, we introduce ReMILP (reformulation-contrastive MILP representation learning), which jointly trains a graph neural network and a hypernetwork to predict how variable embeddings transform under changes of variables. Without solver-derived labels, ReMILP learns representations that exhibit the intended invariance and equivariance on unseen problem classes. Across binary solution, constraint activity and integrality gap prediction, these representations carry task-relevant information when frozen and provide a useful initialization for fine-tuning.

When a graph neural network (GNN) explainer produces an unexpected attribution on a molecule, the attribution alone cannot reveal whether the explainer has failed or the model has learned a shortcut. We introduce WOMBAT, a benchmark of 14 whitebox GNNs, each with message-passing weights set by hand to detect a specific SMARTS motif. Each model's decision rule is known by construction, providing attribution ground truth against which explainer errors can be identified and studied. We validate the models on millions of PubChem molecules and evaluate post-hoc explainers including GNNExplainer, PGExplainer, and Integrated Gradients. Guided by our qualitative analysis, we construct a model that causes Integrated Gradients to spread attribution across the graph, even though the model reliably detects the intended motif. We release the dataset, models, and evaluation code to help researchers in the development of newer XAI tools for GNNs.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) increasingly rely on sophisticated architectures and training procedures to achieve desirable properties such as high predictive performance, fairness, and robustness. However, these properties typically remain tied to the models that learn them, limiting their transferability to simpler models and downstream settings. We introduce model-to-data (M2D) distillation, a new distillation paradigm that transfers properties learned by a complex GNN teacher into graph data, enabling simpler models to recover them through standard training. M2D distillation explicitly trades model complexity for data complexity by jointly learning augmented node features and graph structure that encode the teacher's behavior. The resulting graph serves as a persistent medium for knowledge transfer and can be used with different downstream models. We show that M2D distillation enables simple GNNs to approximate the behavior of substantially more sophisticated teachers, including fairness-aware GNNs, Graph Attention Networks, and Graph Transformers, while maintaining comparable predictive performance and transferring desirable properties of the teacher.

Neural combinatorial optimization typically assumes a centralized solver that reads the whole instance. We study the opposite: combinatorial optimization under a hard information horizon, where every node commits to its share of a global solution seeing only its $k$-hop neighborhood, and those commitments must compose into a globally feasible solution. We formalize this as local set cover and instantiate it on weighted multipoint relay (MPR) selection, the NP-hard 2-hop covering problem of the Optimized Link State Routing Protocol version 2 (OLSRv2) routing protocol (RFC7181), whose horizon is imposed by the protocol, not chosen by the modeler. We prove two results. Any deterministic selector whose horizon is one hop short must either fail coverage or land a factor $Δ$ from optimal, and an $L$-layer graph neural network (GNN) read out at the deciding node is exactly an $L$-hop selector, so capacity cannot buy back radius. Conversely, at the horizon a \ac{GNN} of depth $O(Δ)$ reproduces the RFC7181 covering greedy, and at width $O(c_{\max}Δ)$ its metric-aware weighted analogue, inheriting the $(1+\lnΔ_2)$-approximation in both cases. Empirically, a 3-layer \ac{GATv2} with a coverage-completing decoder, behavior-cloned from the CP-SAT optimum, reaches $\text{cost}/\text{opt}=1.030\pm0.001$ against greedy's $1.138$, closing $79.1%$ of the gap at $100%$ coverage. Restricting the same learner to one hop, on identical instances with the same decoder and demonstrations, collapses it to $1.344$, far worse than greedy. Two transfer checks target real-world networks. OLSRv2's unmodified selection code matches our cardinality greedy on $200/200$ unit-cost instances, and on $40{,}308$ instances of real battalion mobility the frozen model closes $48%$ of the gap at full coverage. The information horizon, not the model capacity, is the most significant variable.

Molecular graph encoding often relies on a single, static structure, ignoring the thermodynamic ensemble of molecules that are present in solution. Here, we introduce EnsembleEGNN, a foundation model that encodes structural ensembles by processing individual conformers through shared equivariant graph neural network layers, pooled with a set attention block, to make property predictions from the whole ensemble. Pretrained on the CREMP cyclic peptide dataset using multi-task self-supervision, the model is trained to encode the conformational variability of each molecule. When predicting membrane permeability from the CycPeptMPDB benchmark, EnsembleEGNN achieves an $R^2$ of $0.477$ under random cross-validation, outperforming a sequence-only BERT baseline ($R^2=0.439$). This representation advantage persists under rigorous out-of-distribution Butina splits ($R^2=0.401$ versus $0.354$). Finally, a hybrid architecture co-training EnsembleEGNN with the BERT model achieves the highest overall accuracy across both random ($R^2=0.538$) and structural holdout evaluations ($R^2=0.444$). These results demonstrate that encoding conformational ensembles into latent representations improves predictions for properties governed by thermodynamics.

Accepted to Graph Foundation Models workshop at ICML '26. Contains 18 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, 2 SI items

Can a pretrained graph model replace training and tuning a separate predictor for each dataset? Answering this requires evaluating prediction quality alongside computational cost. We present NodeGround, a node classification benchmark that puts graph foundation models (GFMs) and dataset-specific supervised learning under a common evaluation framework. The benchmark spans 51 datasets and evaluates six GFMs alongside 15 supervised methods under two label-availability regimes. Shared data partitions, validation-only model selection, controlled hyperparameter searches, and multiple predictive metrics make comparisons systematic, while workflow measurements account for adaptation, training, tuning, and inference. The results favor carefully tuned graph neural networks overall. GraphPFN reaches third place by Elo when more labels are available, yet its relative strengths vary substantially with dataset properties. Efficiency comparisons further qualify the benefits of pretrained reuse: GVT and GraphPFN appear on the Pareto frontiers when supervised methods are represented by their default and fully tuned configurations. Adding intermediate tuning budgets removes this advantage for GVT and leaves GraphPFN extending the estimated frontier in the label-rich setting alone. Thus, reusing pretrained parameters does not yet provide a broadly reliable route to either stronger predictions or cheaper workflows. We release the evaluation pipeline, run-level records, and an open leaderboard at https://github.com/nums-ai/nodeground.

Using advanced machine learning techniques, we developed a method to reconstruct the arrival direction and energy of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays from the voltage traces they induce on ground-based radio detector arrays. In our approach, triggered antennas are represented as a graph structure, which serves as input for a graph neural network (GNN). By incorporating physical knowledge into both the GNN architecture and the input data, we improve the precision and reduce the required size of the training set with respect to a fully data-driven approach. This method achieves an angular resolution of 0.092 degrees and an electromagnetic energy reconstruction resolution of 16.4% on simulated data with realistic noise conditions. We also employ uncertainty estimation methods to enhance the reliability of our predictions, quantifying the confidence of the GNN's outputs and providing confidence intervals for both direction and energy reconstruction. Finally, we investigate strategies to verify the model's consistency and robustness under real-life variations, with the goal of identifying scenarios in which predictions remain reliable despite domain shifts between simulation and reality.

Submitted to Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics

We propose RBF-GNN, a new pseudo-coordinate based graph neural network architecture that takes into account Euclidean, spherical or angular coordinates and uses them to induce a powerful spatial inductive bias. Similar in architecture to SplineCNN, we improve upon the latter by replacing the less efficient sparse-activation based B-splines whose number grows exponentially with dimension by rational Padé basis functions. For effective training we propose a spline-subspace initialization and a variance-preserving weight rescaling. Experimentally, we evaluate on a number of popular neural network architectures that use SplineCNNs. We replace only the SplineCNNs with RBF-GNN. We achieve improved results, including on semantic keypoint matching, shape matching, event based camera computer vision tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/pawelswoboda/RationalBasisCNN.

Generative diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for the discovery of inorganic crystal structures, yet steering their sampling process toward user-defined physical and chemical objectives remains challenging. We present a computational framework that integrates adaptive constraint guidance into a pre-trained crystal diffusion model, enabling the generation of candidate structures that satisfy targeted structural and chemical requirements without model retraining. The approach incorporates differentiable constraint functions directly during sampling, providing an interpretable mechanism for expert-driven exploration of the crystal structure space. To assess the reliability of generated candidates, we introduce a multi-stage validation workflow combining descriptor-based analysis, duplicate removal, comparison with reference crystal databases, graph neural network energy prediction, and thermodynamic stability evaluation through convex-hull analysis. The framework is applied to several classes of inorganic compounds and to constraints involving atomic volume, local coordination environments, and near-neighbor structural motifs. Results demonstrate that adaptive guidance effectively redirects the sampling distribution toward structures exhibiting the desired characteristics while preserving chemical plausibility. Subsequent validation reveals which generated candidates remain viable after energetic and thermodynamic screening. The proposed methodology provides a practical and transparent strategy for incorporating expert knowledge into crystal generative models and establishes a general computational framework for constrained materials discovery.

Full article including supplementary information, 63 pages

Any-dimensional machine learning models, such as graph neural networks (GNNs), can be naturally trained and evaluated on inputs of different sizes and dimensions. Inspired by the GNN transferability literature, we show mathematical conditions under which a partial differential equation (PDE) learning-based solver can be trained in small dimensions and directly applied to solve a higher dimensional PDE in a zero-shot fashion. These conditions are based on symmetries in both the partial differential equation and the initial data. When the equations satisfy the symmetries but the data does not, which is the case for many PDEs arising from physics, we show that our theory gives a principled way of warm-starting low-dimensional PDE solvers for higher dimensional PDEs. We apply this method on the heat equation, Burgers' equation, and the compressible Navier--Stokes equations, improving the performance in both zero-shot and typical training regimes on high dimensional data. For example, we train a surrogate model on 2D Navier--Stokes data and achieve better results on 3D test data than a baseline surrogate model trained on 3D data, while only using 12$%$ of the flops and 20$%$ of the total data size.

6G wireless technology is poised to adopt higher and wider frequency bands, leveraging highly directional beamforming. However, the vast bandwidths amplify the impact of beam squinting. Traditional solutions, such as adding a true-time-delay filter to each antenna, are cost-prohibitive due to the required hardware scale. This paper proposes a signal processing alternative using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to optimize hybrid beamforming in multicarrier wideband systems. Using a bipartite graph to represent a shared analog beamformer among multiple subcarriers, we develop three GNN structures with distinct digital beamformer representations (i) at the subcarrier nodes, (ii) at the edges, or (iii) integrating traditional singular-value decomposition solutions. By designing an efficient message-passing mechanism, these structures offer insights into the impact of different GNN designs on communication system performance and computational complexity. Extensive analysis and ablation studies show that our proposed GNN structures outperform traditional optimization methods and existing ML-based solutions. Furthermore, the proposed GNNs exhibit strong resiliency to beam squinting and better robustness against imperfect CSI than even fully digital beamforming and all existing hybrid designs. These GNNs can also be extended to multi-user scenarios and demonstrate excellent generalization capabilities, allowing trained models to adapt to diverse multicarrier and multi-user settings without retraining.

Published in IEEE Transactions on Wireless Communications

Scalable robotic fleets have become increasingly popular for various applications such as package delivery, warehouse management, and military operations. Prior fleet control algorithms solve centralized routing problems with up to $1{,}000$ tasks in controlled environments, yet they fail to consider realistic constraints such as limited observation and communication ranges typical of decentralized fleets. Thus, deploying existing fleet control algorithms into real-world settings is currently infeasible. To tackle this, we propose Heterogeneous Allocation via Localized Observations (HALO) to solve the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP). HALO is a hybrid method that splits the VRP into allocation and routing portions to provide onboard, real-time solutions to robots in dynamic environments. During the allocation phase, HALO utilizes a heterogeneous graph neural network framework with unique message passing layers to explicitly separate the learning of spatial distributions and task-to-robot compatibility. Evaluation results on a partially observable, online variant of the VRP show HALO significantly outperforms the heuristic baseline while maintaining similar solution quality to an all-knowing offline variant of HALO. While HALO is explicitly designed for partially observable environments, it imposes no strict upper bound on the observation space allowing us to test HALO on the traditional static, single-depot VRP. Here, HALO outperforms state-of-the-art architectures strictly optimized for the static variant of the VRP by up to $14.06%$. Throughout all testing, this framework maintains the quickest execution times which emphasizes its potential for large-scale, real-time deployment.

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